College players have a big decision to make as draft landscape changes
Tomorrow's First-Year Player Draft will look like no other thanks to the five-round format and the $20,000 cap on free agent signings.
But a couple of college coaches I spoke to believe collegiate players now have many more choices to make rather than just jumping at the first offer they receive from a major league team. This changes the free agency pool to an extent as well, not only in 2020, but also looking ahead to 2021.
South Carolina coach Mark Kingston said with the NCAA granting players an additional year of eligibility, some will return to school to try to improve their draft status for next season, even with a professional opportunity dangled in front of them.
"We had four seniors this year whose eligibility would have been up," Kingston said. "But now, with the NCAA granting everybody an additional year to make up for this year lost, all those guys have decisions to make. Either they can come back - the NCAA is allowing that - or they can sign pro, or they can just move on to the real world. I think after the draft happens, we will have more clarity on who's signing, who's not signing. All those guys have the opportunity to come back if it's the right situation."
Georgia coach Scott Stricklin said because free agents can only be offered $20,000 as a signing bonus this year, many will choose to take their chances for next season when they would enter the draft and the bonuses could return to the six-figure offers. If that happens, Stricklin believes the 2021 season will feature an incredible collection of talent across the spectrum of college baseball.
"I think you are going to see a lot of guys that end up coming back," Stricklin said. "College baseball next year will arguably be the most talented group that has ever happened in the history of our sport just because now you have high school players that are showing up that might have not come before."
Stricklin argues that because pro scouts cannot put their eyes on high school players this summer, a lot of those players will not get drafted and instead will take up college scholarship offers to add depth to an already stacked pool of players.
"(You would have) highly touted high school players that maybe were going to be second- or third-round picks, but they didn't get looked at enough to have the decision-makers put their name on a kid," Stricklin said. "Those decision-makers only got to see them play one time in the spring. Or maybe if he is a northern kid, they didn't get to see him play as a senior: 'I thought he was going to be a second-rounder, but, man, I just didn't see him enough.' Now, all of a sudden, that kid is going to college."
Then there is the money offered. MLBPipeline.com senior writer Jim Callis made the point that some players might think the $20,000 cap on signing bonuses is not enticing enough compared to what they would have received under normal conditions. College coaches like Kingston and Stricklin agree that players may return to school to see what happens in 2021.
"It is unprecedented," Kingston said. "The thing is there is a $20,000 max that those kids can be offered. So I think a lot of those kids already know in their mind that that is not something they will be interested in. That they would rather go back to college for another year rather than sign for $20,000. But again, there will be a lot of kids that say, 'I just want to play pro baseball no matter what.' And those kids may have more options than they normally would."
With NCAA allowing juniors to repeat their seasons, guys may stay in school in hopes of getting more money in next year's draft.
"You mentioned the juniors," Stricklin said. "A kid that was going to be a sixth-round draft pick now gets to go back and be a junior again. He still gets that bargaining power as a junior to come back. Does he take $20,000 this year or does he come back and say: 'You know what? I am going to redo my junior year and I am going to be drafted in the third round next year. I am going to get better.' So I think rosters across the country are going to be stacked more than ever."
Kingston envisions kids deciding to continue to pursue their degrees in school and simultaneously improving their standing in the 2021 draft because maybe the $20,000 offer is not enticing enough this season. Also, who is to say there just won't be as many roster slots available because of the potential downsizing of Minor League Baseball?
"I think at that price point you will see a lot of guys decide that they are better off staying in college," Kingston said. "The other thing is it's such an unprecedented event in terms of Minor League Baseball and the opportunities that are available. I think everybody is going to look at their case individually and just make whatever decision they feel is best for them. For some, it will be return to college; for some, it will be to move on to professional baseball and take their chances."
But what if next year's draft is also abbreviated because there was no baseball this season? What if free agent signing bonuses are capped in 2021 as well?
This could create a logjam of players in 2021 with not enough roster spots available for everyone. That is why the decision college baseball players have to make during this year's draft on whether to move on now will be a critical one to their future in pro ball.
In the next two days, it will be interesting to monitor what kind of reaction Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo and assistant general manager and vice president of scouting Kris Kline get when they pursue free agents following the five-round draft.