With the understanding that no prospect - no matter how highly rated - is too good to be true, and no prospect is can't-miss, the Orioles' Adley Rutschman does come close.
FanGraphs.com, in ranking him the No. 1 Orioles prospect (and several outlets rank him No. 1 prospect in all of baseball), said of Rutschman: "Rutschman is a complete, franchise-altering prospect, and one of the most exciting young players in the entire sport. He's a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding position in baseball, and an intense, vocal, charismatic leader. His track record of superlative statistical performance and unanimous scout adoration has continued uninterrupted for nearly half a decade now, and in our eyes, he is in a tier of his own as the best prospect in baseball."
So, yikes, that is pretty good.
I'm not here to dispute a single word and I have not seen a reason to even consider such. But I do have one question about Rutschman and wonder if it will someday be a challenge for him.
That is a heavy uppercut swing, especially as a lefty batter. I say this based off - gulp - the eye test. I don't have any launch angle data to present, just what I have observed. Crazy, I know.
Between two levels in 2021 - with 80 games at Double-A Bowie and 43 with Triple-A Norfolk - Rutschman put up stellar numbers. He hit .285/.397/.502/.899 with 25 doubles, two triples, 23 homers, 86 runs and 75 RBIs. He was the Orioles' Player of the Month on the farm for August, when he batted .312/.408/.511/.919. It was during that month he moved to Triple-A on Aug. 10. In 43 games with the Tides, he hit .312/.405/.490/.895.
Rutschman, who turned 24 on Feb. 6, led O's farmhands in plate appearances (543), hits (129) and runs. He was fourth in doubles and RBIs, and second in homers and OPS.
Among regulars on the Baltimore farm that I have defined as 300 or more plate appearances, he ranked first among 28 players with a 14.5 walk rate and was toughest to strike out among the same group at 16.6.
So he has the rankings and he surely has the stats.
But what about that uppercut swing? That means less time in the zone with his bat path as he takes the swing. Will big league pitchers be able to exploit that?
I asked Buck Britton during our recent interview that exact question. He managed Rutschman last season at Bowie and also coached him at the 2020 Bowie alternate site.
"Adley's left-handed swing is a lot more violent than his right-handed swing," said Britton. "At times, his attacking of the ball, yeah, he's working under the baseball a little bit. But when you get to see Adley play over the course of 100, 140 games, the mid at-bat adjustments that he is able to make, you know, you do see swings on 2-0 counts, 3-1 counts where he's trying to do damage and maybe he overswings. But I also think it could have been a result of - there was a point in Double-A where he just wasn't getting pitched to. And as much as we're trying to get on base - and walking is a big part of it - Adley wants to hit at times, too. So I think sometimes he can be overaggressive, but this guy's hand-eye coordination is pretty impressive and his mid at-bat adjustments are pretty impressive.
"So, yeah, I think he's going to get challenged, absolutely. But I see a guy that is going to overcome any sort of, you know, challenges at the plate. You will see different swings over the course of an at-bat if need be."
The minor league stats computer at Milb.com provides some splits. They list Rutschman's batting splits for just his time at Bowie last year. As a lefty hitter, he batted .240/.359/.431/.790 in 225 at-bats. As a right-handed batter, he posted the impressive line of .371/.494/.757/1.251 in 70 plate appearances.
We don't often see players produce the power numbers of Rutschman that also have such strong walk and strikeout rates. Britton saw it every night last season at Bowie.
"Well, we track swing decisions scores down here, and night in and night out, he's having great swing decisions," said Britton, who will manage at Triple-A this season. "The guy knows the strike zone. That is something hard to teach. You can make it better for players, but he is elite and he is stubborn. And he does not care if an umpire makes a call he knows is wrong. It doesn't affect him for the next pitch. That allows him to be consistent. Even if the guy behind the plate blows one or two in at-bat, it doesn't affect Adley. Adley is hunting for that pitch over the middle of the plate, and when he gets it, he's trying to do damage, and because of his ability he typically gets it on the barrel."
FanGraphs' writeup of Rutschman ended with this, as the outlet noted he fell just short of becoming their second-ever 80 FV (future value) player: "Adley makes a ton of contact but not always on the sweet spot of the ball, leading to what we anticipate will be all-fields doubles spray rather than elite home run totals. Still, he projects as a perennial All-Star and consistent MVP threat, the next decade's best catcher in baseball."
Click here for YouTube video of Rutschman from last season, showing that swing off. It starts with what looks like him hunting and finding a homer in a key spot. Batting in the ninth with two on and Bowie down by three, he got his pitch and smashed it ahead in the count. Tie game.