When it comes to Baseball Prospectus and its PECOTA projections, it is time to admit that projection system just cannot make accurate projections on the Orioles.
The system missed by a mile on the Orioles yet again in the 2016 season. The projection was for last place in the American League East at 72 wins. The end result was a tie for second place, with 89 wins and a wild card berth. Yep, not even close. Again.
PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is Baseball Prospectus' proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:
* Major league equivalencies, to allow the use minor league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors
* Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level
* A career path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time.
It sounds impressive. And PECOTA did project three of six division winners, hitting on the Indians, Cubs and Dodgers. It is just that the system doesn't work for the Orioles. Here are the PECOTA projections for the team since the 2012 season and the actual win total.
2012: 71 (won 93)
2013: 75 (won 85)
2014: 75 (won 96)
2015: 78 (won 81)
2016: 72 (won 89)
Over that five-year stretch, PECOTA has not predicted a single winning season for the Orioles, who have had four of them. Even after the team won 96 games in 2014 and had averaged 91 wins for the previous three years, the projection was for 18 fewer wins at 78 in 2015. That was actually a year PECOTA came close, as the Orioles won 81 games.
Last year's 72-win projection seemed crazy low to me, but we had readers here predicting the same or close to that, so whatever all of those folks saw just didn't quite play out this year.
Going into the 2016 season, national writer Jonah Keri of SI.com had the Orioles No. 23 on his power rankings. He had Boston No. 8, Toronto No. 9, New York No. 12 and Tampa Bay No. 18. Of the Orioles, Keri wrote:
"After a decade and a half of futility, the Orioles have spent the past four seasons ranging from competent to excellent, consistently outperforming bearish projection systems. Some credit Buck Showalter's managing acumen, others excellent bullpen work, and analytical types often cite random variance, aka dumb luck. But the O's head into 2016 with a leaky starting rotation and multiple lineup questions around young star Manny Machado. They'll also face a set of tough division rivals, with even the low-budget Rays making improvements. Baltimore might be headed back to the cellar in 2016."
Ah, 89 wins. More dumb luck.
We could go back and look at many preseason predictions that missed big on the Orioles in 2016. Here is another where five writers predicted last place.
Here were Bovada's preseason odds to win AL East:
8/5 - Boston
7/4 - Toronto
7/2 - New York
15/2 - Orioles
9/1 - Tampa Bay
I point out some of that to lead into this: a look ahead at 2017 with a not-so-great prediction for the Orioles. It comes from ESPN and has the Orioles No. 19 in a power ranking of all 30 teams. Of course, even the publication admits it's way too early to do this, but of course we all need content and clicks this time of year. Meanwhile, the early ZIPS projection has the 2017 Orioles at 79 victories.
But no one should get worked up over this for even a second. It should almost be a rite of passage for Orioles fans. Your team will be predicted to be bad. You should be used to it. They lead the AL in wins since 2012. End of story.
In the write-up here on the Orioles in those power rankings, author David Schoenfield writes, "If you think this is pessimistic, just wait and see what the computers project for the O's."
We know, David. We know.