The last pitch thrown by Orioles closer Félix Bautista in a competitive game was Aug. 25, 2023 against the Rockies at Camden Yards. Bautista was one strike away from his 34^th save but settled for the unwanted hold.

Bautista unleashed a 102.3 mph fastball to pinch-hitter Michael Toglia, tumbled toward first base, began flexing his hand and walked off the mound. He underwent reconstructive-elbow surgery in October, and rest, rehab exercises and baseball activities followed as Bautista missed the entire 2024 season. He’s gotten through bullpen and live batting practice sessions without any setbacks and is expected to pitch Monday afternoon against the Red Sox in Sarasota.

Manager Brandon Hyde provided the update earlier today in his media scrum in Clearwater, where the Orioles are playing the Phillies.

Monday's game airs on MASN and also features Tomoyuki Sugano’s second appearance with the Orioles. Charlie Morton starts and Sugano is scheduled to pitch in relief.

Bautista is expected to be ready for Opening Day, but the team will ease him back into a full-time closing role. He’s got to build up his arm and innings, and the velocity is sitting in the mid-90s.

SARASOTA, Fla. – A week of exhibition games seems like an appropriate time to share some observations before the Orioles play the Pirates this afternoon at Ed Smith Stadium. Cade Povich opposes Paul Skenes in a rematch from Spring Breakout, except this one airs on MASN.

Povich went three innings and allowed two runs, but hardly anyone noticed because Skenes was the dominant figure before he threw a pitch. Skenes retired the side in order in his only inning, striking out Jackson Holliday and Enrique Bradfield Jr.

That's the distant past. Let’s move a little closer.

* Rodolfo Martinez is a camp darling, though I wouldn’t necessarily use that word around him because the scowl could melt concrete. Media became infatuated with his high-velocity fastball, impressive side and live batting practice sessions and absence from an affiliated team since being in the Giants system in 2019. Who doesn’t love a good camp story?

Comparisons to Albert Suárez were inevitable because of their similar treks through foreign countries. In Martinez’s case, he’s still waiting to make his major league debut.

SARASOTA, Fla. – Orioles manager Brandon Hyde was asked a few days ago about a drama-free camp, how the only injuries were sustained prior to the report dates. The conversation included warnings about the risks of jinxing it.

Here we are.

We learned earlier today that Jordan Westburg hasn’t played since Saturday due to lower-back soreness. And shortstop Gunnar Henderson exited today’s game after one inning with lower right side discomfort.

No further details are available. Manager Brandon Hyde will provide an update in his post-game media scrum.

Henderson made a nice running grab of Bo Bichette’s line drive in the first. He led off the bottom of the inning with a ground ball to first baseman Will Wagner, who bobbled it and flipped to pitcher Easton Lucas.

SARASOTA, Fla. – Orioles reliever Nate Webb is one of today’s scheduled pitchers against the Blue Jays at Ed Smith Stadium.

This is a big deal for Webb and his family. It’s his first outing since March 9, 2023 in the Pirates camp prior to undergoing ligament-reconstructive surgery in his right elbow.

The Orioles signed Webb to a two-year minor league deal and were on the verge of assigning him to an affiliate before he tore his left Achilles tendon in May. He was invited to camp this spring.

Grayson Rodriguez makes his first exhibition start, with Toronto sending former Orioles minor leaguer Easton Lucas to the mound.

I’ll save you the trouble: Lucas was acquired from the Marlins for infielder Jonathan Villar on Dec. 2, 2019. The Orioles traded him to the Athletics for reliever Shintaro Fujinami on July 19, 2023.

SARASOTA, Fla. – One more day of live and cage batting practices, bullpens and fielding drills before the Orioles play their first spring training game. Overreacting to workouts can be replaced by overreacting to exhibitions.

The club seems to have avoided injuries in camp other than some knuckles bloodied from knocking on wood.

Jorge Mateo is recovering from his elbow-reconstructive surgery and won’t be ready for Opening Day. That was probably the most important news to come from executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias’ first-day media scrum, since it provided confirmation of Mateo’s status and shaped the projected Opening Day roster.

Got to be six infielders and Heston Kjerstad and Ramón Laureano as the last two outfielders with Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins and Tyler O’Neill. Right?

Left-hander Trevor Rogers reported with a kneecap subluxation and also won’t be ready for Opening Day. That one came out of nowhere, but Rogers appeared to be a longshot based on the additions of Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano to the rotation. Pitcher Chayce McDermott showed up with a mild lat/teres strain that manager Brandon Hyde said could push him back 10-14 days. He was expected to begin the season at Triple-A Norfolk.

SARASOTA, Fla. – Tommy Joseph noticed it right away.

After spending the 2024 season as assistant hitting coach in Seattle, Joseph accepted the same job with the Orioles and immediately was struck by the positive atmosphere and tight bonds formed among players who genuinely care about each other. They’re teammates but also friends. They have the same goals and each other’s backs.

The hitting philosophies are almost universal, with Joseph saying, “You try to score more runs as the other team. You’ve just got to find as many ways to do that as you can every day.”

And then, there’s this:

“In terms of the environment and the culture, just being here a couple days, you can tell it’s very special. They’ve built something very special and the players really bought in on everything here," he said.

SARASOTA, Fla. – Cedric Mullins is the last man standing, and running, among the trio of young outfielders who made their way from the minors to Camden Yards.

Austin Hays was traded to the Phillies last summer and he signed with the Reds as a free agent. Anthony Santander received a five-year deal with the Blue Jays.

Mullins is approaching his own free agency as he prepares for his eighth season in the majors. The Orioles drafted him in 2015.

“On the personal side, there’s a lot of focus involved, of course, but on the team side of things, it’s business as usual,” Mullins said. “We go about it day by day, looking to improve the team.”

Santander’s big personality is conspicuous by its absence in the clubhouse. However, the Orioles will be in Toronto for a four-game opening series, so the reunion isn’t too far down the runway.

SARASOTA, Fla. – Grayson Rodriguez’s big strike in the offseason happened on a hunting trip in Mexico, where he shot a ram and now waits for it to clear customs and arrive in the United States.

Rodriguez hasn’t managed to buy Corbin Burnes’ fishing boat but could make his pitch when the team is in Phoenix.

These are the topics that bring a smile to Rodriguez’s face, the more playful side that is buried during those moments when he’s got to be all business. And not the kind that purchases water crafts.

Orioles pitchers and catchers held their first workout yesterday at the Ed Smith Stadium complex. Rodriguez hasn’t appeared in a game since July 31 due to another lat/teres strain that he couldn’t rehab in time to make the Wild Card roster. He didn’t make it past bullpen sessions and watched his teammates get swept by the Royals.

“Feeling good,” he said yesterday. “Last year at the end of the year there was a chance that I was gonna come back and throw. It’s kind of what I was trying to do. Ultimately, it didn’t work out, but the first week that I got home I was fully cleared from the doctors to move on and do my offseason program and everything, and didn’t have a problem.”

SARASOTA, Fla. - The due date has arrived for Orioles pitchers and catchers. They’re required to report today unless they have visa issues. There’s usually one in every crowd.

Not that the complex has been empty. Players arrive early, including the ones rehabbing from surgery. Physicals are taken and the back fields are occupied. Tossing a baseball back and forth in the morning feeds the senses.

The media gains access early Thursday. It isn’t like those Fort Lauderdale days when beat writers and columnists stood inside the clubhouse and waited for someone to show up with their bags. They’d usually just phone the manager and say, “I’m here.”

They meant the state of Florida. Guys weren’t in a big hurry to check into the outdated and dilapidated facility.

Beyond some roster competitions this spring, and there don’t appear to be many, is the battle for the Opening Day start. This is assuming that a decision isn’t already made and spring performances could factor into it.

Adam Jones played on Orioles teams that reached the postseason in 2012, 2014 and 2016 and stayed in contention in ’17 until the final month. He became an executive and community ambassador for the organization earlier this week, attaching him to a club that’s made back-to-back playoff appearances, including a division title in 2023.

He seems qualified to offer comparisons.

The 2025 edition will try to make it three in a row for the first time since 1969-71, when the Orioles went 1-2 in the World Series.

The teams with Jones were eliminated in the Division Series in ’12, Championship Series in ’14 and Wild Card in ’16. The outcomes left a bitter taste but were much easier to digest than the streak of 14 straight losing seasons that began in 1998.

“When I look at this team and I compare them to the teams I played on, I mean, they’re more athletic. They run the bases better,” Jones said during Tuesday’s video call.

As we are now just a few weeks away from the start of spring training and the new season, today let’s take a look at the O’s roster in terms of four components.

They are the offense and defense and the pitching – starting pitching and the bullpen.

We don’t know the Opening Day roster yet, obviously, or the final roster that will start camp, but at this point it’s pretty set. Yes, we could get a change or a few of them, but today we're going with what they have right now to assess how it all looks.

If you break those four down, I see all four as solid units for the team heading into the season. I will rank them as they look today, from strongest to weakest:

Offense

Zach Eflin picked up a baseball earlier than usual this offseason, an impressive feat for a man with his hands full.

Eflin is having a mostly typical winter professionally back at home in Orlando, even in temperatures that dipped into the 30s. The rest of it is more of an adventure, controlled chaos that amuses and fulfills him.

“Everything else life-related, there is no normalcy or anything, just from having three (children) under 3 ½ at this point and an eight-month pregnant wife,” Eflin said yesterday in a phone conversation. “Things are very reactionary nowadays.”

The Orioles will get a full season from Eflin after he made nine starts in 2024 following a deadline trade that sent minor leaguers Jackson Baumeister, Mac Horvath and Matthew Etzel to the Rays. He posted a 2.60 ERA and 1.120 WHIP and allowed one run in four innings in Game 2 of the Wild Card round against the Royals before receiving a quick hook.

The rotation currently is aligned to make Eflin, 30, the favorite to start on Opening Day in Toronto, with Grayson Rodriguez providing the main competition. Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton signed one-year deals, and Dean Kremer returns after registering a 3.82 ERA in 12 second-half starts.

We could call it a “two tiered” Orioles rotation at this point. They have two at the top right now in right-handers Zack Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez and three that follow that in some order.

As of today, Eflin or Rodriguez could get the Opening Day assignment with the other starting second.

Third through fifth in some combo, is expected to be Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton. That is how I stack it as of today, Kremer, Sugano and Morton fifth. Others may project Morton at No. 3 or Sugano at No. 3. Lot of options here. No lefties in this rotation, but they are in the depth behind this group currently with pitchers like southpaws Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers. Could one of that duo impact the Opening Day five? Of course, it’s baseball, changes and injuries happen. Always write your plans in January in pencil with a big eraser close by.

The Orioles hopes for Eflin are likely big. In 2023 he pitched to an ERA of 3.50 with 16 wins for Tampa Bay and finished sixth for the AL Cy Young award. Traded to the Orioles on July 26 last summer for three minor leaguers, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA over nine starts.

With a combined 3.54 ERA and 1.054 WHIP the past two seasons producing an ERA+ of 115, he will be expected to pitch to that form for the 2025 Orioles.

Today a look at a few more notes and items we can expect to see during the 2025 season.

The return of this pitcher: The No. 11 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez should return as a full-time member of the Baltimore rotation.

In 2024, he made what turned out to be his last start on July 31. He was scheduled to pitch Aug. 6 in the series opener at Rogers Centre in Toronto but was scratched just minutes before first pitch with what was later described as right lat/teres discomfort.

Getting this now 25-year-old right-hander back is a big lift for the rotation, which loses ace righty Corbin Burnes. Rodriguez went 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA over 20 starts and the Orioles went 14-6 in those games.

He gave up two earned runs or less 14 times. And if you could take away his two worst starts last year, where he allowed seven runs each time, he would have finished the season with an ERA of 3.02.

Rather than ask (beg?) for more mailbag questions, I decided today to pose a few of my own.

Here are three for you to consider. Share your answers.

If the Orioles don’t acquire a No. 1 starter, should Zach Eflin or Grayson Rodriguez start on Opening Day?

Eflin has the edge in experience and track record. He’s also good, so the assignment wouldn’t be based only on those two factors.

The Rays named Eflin their Opening Day starter this year, and he held the Blue Jays to one run through five innings before the game unraveled for him in a five-run sixth. He surrendered three home runs in an 8-2 loss.

Sure the Orioles, like most teams that don’t have one, could use an ace pitcher. They still hope to add one before the start of the 2025 season. 

But their current rotation has the makings of being a good one.

Here is how it looks today:

Zach Eflin: He is the probable Opening Day starter. After the trade to the Orioles, over nine starts, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA. Only nine pitchers, including the Orioles' Corbin Burnes, that qualified, posted season-long ERAs under 3.00. To do it even for nine starts was impressive.

Eflin finished sixth for the 2023 American League Cy Young Award and has been among the best pitchers in the American League. Over the last two years, while Burnes posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP, Eflin was at 3.54 and 1.085.

I couldn’t get to a few questions in the weekend mailbag and wanted to publish them before they got stale, like the bread used to make stuffing for your holiday turkey.

By the way, it’s dressing if prepared outside the bird. Let me address that one before it’s asked.

Here are some extras while we wait for Orioles news.

Is the offseason plan to just hope Grayson Rodriguez stays healthy and becomes the ace they hope?
I wouldn’t say it’s a “plan.” It isn’t preventing the Orioles from acquiring a top starter. But they certainly hope that he can go the distance and reach his enormous potential. Gotta stop with the lat and shoulder soreness. He could be an ace if he’s healthy. He’s got that kind of stuff.

Who's your early minor league dark horse(s) to make their MLB debut in 2025?
Here’s one for you that’s outside the (batter’s) box: Catcher Maverick Handley is on the taxi squad and has his contract selected because of an injury. He’s already in the clubhouse and the team doesn’t want to play shorthanded. It happened twice this year with catcher David Bañuelos and he received his first and only major league at-bat. Bañuelos was the leading taxi squad guy this year, but Handley has done it in the past.

Questions come attached to the Orioles that can be answered before Opening Day, with others that need more time.

Pretty much anything relating to the roster should become clearer by late March, but check back in October for the rest. There's no way to know until a season plays out.

Here are three more examples.

Can the Orioles get a full season out of Grayson Rodriguez?

Rodriguez was a camp cut in 2023 who rejoined the Orioles in early April after Kyle Bradish took a line drive off his leg in Texas. He was optioned in late May and didn’t return until July 17.

For someone who covers the minor leagues as I do it is a question to ponder: When referring to the Baysox moving forward, do I go with Chesapeake, their new name, or in some cases is Bowie still acceptable?

A case like when I refer to a player who spent time in 2024 with the Baysox. They were still Bowie then, so do I say this player hit such and such at High-A Aberdeen and this number at Double-A Bowie? Or just use Chesapeake?

There is no handbook and there are no right or wrong answers.

But in noting some recent stories in this space, I did report on the name change to the Chesapeake Baysox.

“I think when we looked at where our fans are coming from, we wanted to be inclusive of the entire Chesapeake Bay watershed,” said Brian Shallcross, in his 20^th year as Baysox general manager. “We saw people coming from the Eastern Shore, west of the Potomac. We were surprised when we dug into the stats of just how far and ranging our fanbase was. We wanted to be inclusive of all those fans without forgetting our roots.”

The trend for O’s young players and some of the top prospects in the last year or two has been to come to the big leagues and struggle initially. It doesn’t happen every time, but it has happened a lot of the time.

Right-hander Grayson Rodriguez and outfielder Colton Cowser are two prime examples. In his first 10 MLB starts during the 2023 season, Rodriguez went 2-2 with a 7.35 ERA and .956 OPS against. It got better for him. During that same ’23 season, over 77 plate appearances (yes, a small sample) Cowser hit. 115 with an OPS of .433.

Rodriguez, as was Cowser, was sent back to the minors after those initial struggles in 2023. In July of that year he came back a different pitcher. In fact, in his last 33 games, he has gone 18-6 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He has 18 quality starts allowing a .237 batting average and .664 OPS. His groundball rate is 45.7 and that helped him keep the ball in the park allowing 0.84 homers per nine since that July 2023 date.

Cowser just posted a second-place finish for the AL Rookie of the Year, losing out to Yankees right-hander Luis Gil after a strong first full season in the majors.

Watching Rodriguez go from pitching to a 7.35 ERA to pitching like a No. 1 or No. 2 starter and watching Cowser go from hitting .115 to getting Rookie of the Year votes, reminds us it can take a while for young players to reach their potential or to trend up on the stat sheet.