Ah, the first week of spring training games. 

The perfect time to toss out wild takes about the upcoming season based on an incredibly small sample size of games that hold minimal weight. 

What takeaways are overreactions? Which far-too-early conclusions could actually come to fruition? 

On this week’s edition of “The Bird’s Nest” (which you can watch here), Annie Klaff and I took a deep dive into some early storylines. On the way up, we’ll see which ones hold any water. 

Heston Kjerstad will have a 20-plus home run season

SARASOTA, Fla. – Chayce McDermott still hasn’t been cleared to begin activities. However, he said earlier today that he feels “really good” after reporting to camp with a mild lat/teres strain.

“Can’t complain where I’m at,” he said, “so we’ll keep going and keep following the plan.”

McDermott is restricted to performing strength exercises and doesn’t know when he’ll be begin a throwing progression.

“It should be pretty soon,” he said. "I’m not 100 percent sure of the exact timeline. It’s just based on how I feel with everything and how I keep progressing.”

McDermott made his only major league start last season on July 24 in Miami and had an uphill climb this spring to break camp with the team. His injury likely has eliminated that possibility, but he can hop back into Triple-A Norfolk’s rotation, continue his development and try to rejoin the Orioles over the summer.

SARASOTA, Fla. – Tomoyuki Sugano reported to Orioles camp on Saturday, but today felt like the beginning of spring training. Three different hitters stood at the plate against him in live batting practice at Ed Smith Stadium, rotating until he faced eight during his session. A lengthy mound conference followed with catcher Adley Rutschman, pitching coach Drew French, guest instructor and former pitcher Ben McDonald, and interpreter Yuto Sakurai.

Sugano lingered for a little bit longer as the session broke up, sweeping his foot across the dirt and measuring his stride. The mounds in Japan have a softer composition and the rubber sits further back. Just one more adjustment.

The Orioles scheduled only one live BP today and arranged for Sugano to face prospects Enrique Bradfield Jr., Dylan Beavers and Jud Fabian. Beavers flied out and doubled twice on a pair of hard-hit line drives. Fabian struck out twice and singled or doubled into left field – players don’t run the bases – and Bradfield grounded out and lined to left field.

Here’s what they’re saying about the session:

Sugano (via Sakurai)

SARASOTA, Fla. – Orioles pitching coach Drew French was eager to begin working with Tomoyuki Sugano even before the Japanese right-hander agreed to a $13 million contract. The deal became official and French approached interpreter Yuto Sakurai with a favor. Simple in nature but hugely meaningful.

“I said I need to start learning his language a little bit,” French said. “I’ve done some things to try to help myself, but ultimately woke up the next day and forgot them.”

French had a specific translation request. He wanted to know how to say, “good job.” It’s like he anticipated what would happen during the first bullpen session.

“Ultimately, that’s the phrase I went with today,” French said, “and hopefully tomorrow I can learn another one.”

Might I suggest “great job?”

SARASOTA, Fla. – The most popular figure this morning on the back fields at the Ed Smith Stadium complex wasn’t one of the players. It was the man who signs their checks.

Owner and control person David Rubenstein reported to camp, toured the complex and signed autographs for fans behind the fences. The scene usually plays out at Camden Yards during games, at times with Orioles cap tossed to the crowd from the front row.

“In life you have to do what you’re good at,” he said. “I’m not good at certain things, so when I bought the team, I said, ‘What can I help the team with?’ It probably isn’t by trying to second-guess the sabermetrics of some of our experts on things, so I thought I could be engaged with the community and try to make speeches around the community, be philanthropically engaged and show up at the games, engage the fans, sign autographs, selfies or things like that, and I try to do as much of that as I physically can.

“I hope to be able to continue to do that until the fans are tired of me. You never know when they may get tired of me.”

Rubenstein spoke to media for about 18 minutes outside the baseball operations center, making multiple assurances that the franchise is in strong financial condition and that his expectations for the 2025 season are lofty.

SARASOTA, Fla. – I took a long walk around the outside of the Ed Smith Stadium facility yesterday to get in some steps – my Fitbit kept checking whether I was dead – and to snap a few photos. The sun periodically would duck behind the clouds and the wind picked up in intensity, but escaping the latest snow storm back home made it more than tolerable.

I also went into the team store and bought a 4T shirt. I’ve gone down a few sizes since my heart surgery and orders to shelve workouts for a while, but it also should fit my granddaughter.

The sounds of batting practice could be heard in the distance, likely one hitter in the cage on a back field. Media access begins today, enabling us to put faces with the swings.

During a recent radio hit, I was asked about the most difficult part of covering spring training. I chose the inability to be in more than one place at a time. Watch a bullpen session and risk missing BP. Wander over to Field 3 and miss something important on the main stadium field. Return to the press box to write and risk missing everything.

You’ve just got to make your choices and live with them, which also is good relationship advice.

This wintery weather – snow, freezing rain, ice that’s closing schools and turning backyard decks into hazardous rinks – heats up the interest in pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training.

The wait is almost over, with the official arrival date Wednesday and the first workout set for Thursday. Gentlemen, start your bullpen sessions and PFPs.

The first day will bring a media scrum with executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias and possible injury news. Last spring’s session confirmed Kyle Bradish’s sprained elbow ligament and platelet-rich plasma injection, John Means being about a month behind the other starters, Gunnar Henderson’s sore oblique and Samuel Basallo’s elbow stress fracture.

Elias reminded reporters at the Birdland Caravan that he traditionally kind of forecasts “anybody who’s off or on an abnormal schedule when we get down to Sarasota, so I’ll probably do that in a couple of weeks.”

We already learned that Jorge Mateo and Félix Bautista will be on a lighter schedule early in camp. Bradish and Tyler Wells won’t be activated until the second half, with their move to the 60-day injured list approaching. The media finally will have access to them.

The smiles appear before the response.

Ask a few Orioles hitters for their immediate reactions to news that the club is moving in the left field wall, and their approval can be seen on their faces.

“I mean, I’m not disappointed,” catcher Adley Rutschman said yesterday evening after the Birdland Caravan made a stop at PBR Baltimore.

“It’s definitely nice as a righty, and maybe as a lefty. I think everyone’s excited.”

No one more than first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who was robbed of 11 home runs over three seasons, per Statcast data, after the Orioles pushed back the wall and raised its height. The new dimensions bring it up at varying distances between nine and 20 feet.

The second day of the Birdland Caravan brings 10 players to PBR Baltimore at Power Plant Live! Perhaps a few of them will be convinced to sing Karaoke. Riding the mechanical bull might not be included among permissible activities in their contracts.

That’s a difficult injury story to write. It might throw me.

Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, Jordan Westburg, Albert Suárez, Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott will make appearances between 6-8 p.m. Seven of them seem like locks to occupy the Opening Day roster, an eighth remains a favorite but becomes more vulnerable if another pitcher arrives, and two probably need some breaks to avoid Triple-A.

Cowser

The runner-up for American League Rookie of the Year should get heavy usage again after appearing in 153 games last season.

As we are now just a few weeks away from the start of spring training and the new season, today let’s take a look at the O’s roster in terms of four components.

They are the offense and defense and the pitching – starting pitching and the bullpen.

We don’t know the Opening Day roster yet, obviously, or the final roster that will start camp, but at this point it’s pretty set. Yes, we could get a change or a few of them, but today we're going with what they have right now to assess how it all looks.

If you break those four down, I see all four as solid units for the team heading into the season. I will rank them as they look today, from strongest to weakest:

Offense

Four NFL playoffs games this weekend and a forecast calling for a wintry mix turning to snow. This is football weather. This is one reason why so many baseball fans count down the days until pitchers and catchers report.

The Orioles keep checking the pitching market with the possibility of making another move. I keep checking the mailbag and deciding when to share.

Let’s dig out a dozen questions before shoveling snow. Thanks for your participation and your patience.

Any clarity on five- or six-man starting rotation?
The Orioles don’t seem interested in breaking camp with six starters but won’t completely dismiss it. Here’s what executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias told me recently: “We’ve had kind of, I’d say, low-intensity discussions about that possibility. Right now, that is not the plan, but it could turn into the plan. We’re not in a hurry to make that decision. We’ll see where we’re at as camp’s going. I think our schedule has a lot of off-days in April and May, and that might make it a little less beneficial to do the six-man, but we want to hold off on that decision until we just get a better sense of how everyone’s throwing and the kind of things that don’t reveal themselves until much later in camp.”

Do you think Brandon Young will make his MLB debut as a starter or reliever?
The easy pick is starter because that’s what he is, but there’s always the possibility that he fills an emergency-type need in the bullpen. Maybe the Orioles suddenly need a long man and want to introduce him to the majors. Always be prepared to pivot from a development plan. But I’ll still guess starter. For instance, if a 27^th man is needed to start in a doubleheader. Yeah, let’s go there.

So, anything going on today?

We’re still waiting for an outcome with infielder Livan Soto, who was designated for assignment on Jan. 10 when the Orioles claimed right-hander Roansy Contreras on waivers from the Reds.

A week has passed, which could bring an announcement later today. Catcher René Pinto was designated on Jan. 3 and the Diamondbacks claimed him on the 10^th. But catcher Blake Hunt was designated Monday, and the Orioles traded him to the Mariners Wednesday for cash considerations.

In one of those baseball twists, the Orioles designated Contreras for assignment yesterday while claiming infielder Jacob Amaya, a former top 30 prospect, on waivers from the White Sox.

There will be a quiz later.

The important dates in the offseason are dwindling, a notable exception being the international signing period for amateur free agents that begins today. Arbitration hearings start on Jan. 27. Spring training is right around the corner, with Orioles pitchers and catchers reporting Feb. 12 and the first full-squad workout held on the 18^th.

Wedged within these milestones is the three-day Birdland Caravan that replaced the annual FanFest event in 2020 and was canceled the next two winters by the pandemic and baseball’s lockout.

Ten players have committed to the tour: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Colton Cowser. Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Ryan O’Hearn, Albert Suárez, Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott. Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde also will attend.

Elias, Hyde and Cowser have granted past media access this offseason, with the young outfielder holding a media scrum at the Winter Meetings after announcing the draft lottery results. He’s a confirmed participant with his nine teammates at the Jan. 31 Karaoke Happy Hour at PBR Baltimore in Power Plant Live!, and to appear at Bowlero Columbia, the Kids Rally in Severn and the PLAY Ball Rookie Clinic at Meadowbrook Athletic Complex on Feb. 1.

Cowser will have another chance to field questions about finishing as runner-up to Yankees pitcher Luis Gil for American League Rookie of the Year. Gil totaled 106 points and Cowser 101. He also can discuss the hand that was fractured in Game 2 of the Wild Card series and the exact nature of his surgery, his offseason workouts and attempts to become more consistent at the plate, playing left field with the wall moved in, and sharing an outfield with Tyler O’Neill.

The Birdland Caravan returns for another three-day winter tour beginning on Jan. 30 at multiple locations throughout the region, and the list of Orioles participants includes high-profile players Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle and Colton Cowser. Jordan Westburg and former No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday also are scheduled to make appearances.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde will attend select events. Other players include Ryan O’Hearn, Albert Suárez, Cade Povich and pitching prospect Chayce McDermott.

Caravan stops will be made throughout the state, including Baltimore, Bel Air, Columbia, Ellicott City, Halethorpe and Severn, plus “surprise locations” in Frederick, Harford and Montgomery counties. Fans in Pasadena and Westminster will get the chance to meet and take photos with the Oriole Bird, Mr. Splash and the Camden Franks.

A new feature is the requirement of tickets to attend several events, such as the Kids Rally in Severn, the bowling experience at Bowlero in Columbia, the Orioles PLAY BALL Rookie Clinic in Ellicott City, the Rip and Play event at Bel Air Sports Cards, and every Happy Hour.

Fans must purchase tickets in advance at Orioles.com/Caravan due to limited availability. Profits will benefit the Orioles Charitable Foundation supporting impactful community initiatives and programs.

The Orioles will play a game, a spring training game, for the first time on February 22^nd at home versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. How their lineup will look that day is not important. Can’t read anything into a spring training lineup, especially not the first one of spring.

But how might that lineup look on Opening Day, March 27^th at 3:07 p.m. at Rogers Centre against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Rather than wait for that big day, we could make a guess today. Doesn’t cost anything and no matter what we project, no one will get hurt. Unless it’s a player’s feelings that we leave out. But that’s rather unlikely too, so let’s proceed.

First the Blue Jays project to have five righties in their rotation possibly starting with Kevin Gausman or Jose Berrios. So we know it’s likely going to be a right-hander versus the Orioles that day and we’ll go with that.

Everyone’s lineup might be different for different reasons. Here is mine as of Jan. 13.

The Orioles must reach agreements with their unsigned arbitration-eligible players later today or exchange salary figures. Hearings will be held between Jan. 27 and Feb. 14.

A panel will choose one of the two figures. There are no compromises.

We’ve learned that there are exceptions to the club’s file-and-go philosophy.

Corner infielder Emmanuel Rivera settled at $1 million to leave the Orioles with 11 unsigned players. Here’s a reminder:

Dean Kremer

In Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson the Orioles have two young, talented players that could be considered faces of this franchise. Two players that were their first two selections in the 2019 MLB Draft. The first two players selected by Mike Elias after he was hired by the Orioles.

In the 2025 season, based off their play last year, the Orioles surely expect improvement from Rutschman after his disappointing second half. Henderson could improve too, but he had a season in 2024 that put him among the very best players in the game.

Can Gunnar find another gear?: Asking more out of Henderson based on his 2024, is asking a lot. He improved his batting line in each stat category, hitting .255/.325/.489/.814 in 2023 and last year that was .281/.364/.529/.893 as his OPS+ increased from 125 to 159.

How good was he in 2024? He was the third-best position player in baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement and ranked fifth in FanGraphs.com's WAR.

Via baseball-reference.com, Aaron Judge led all at 10.8 followed by Bobby Witt Jr. at 9.4 and then Henderson at 9.1. Juan Soto was fifth by the way, behind Jarren Duran at 7.9. Via FanGraphs, it was Judge leading the way at 11.2, Witt at 10.4 and Shohei Ohtani at 9.1 with Soto at 8.1 and Henderson at 8.0.

As the offseason rolls merrily along, except of course for the segment of the fan base that feels flattened by it, win projections and championship odds already have surfaced on the internet.

They seemed premature in December and remain so in the first week of January, but they always can be adjusted later.

The Orioles could or could not be done with their search for starting pitching and they must address the bullpen, but they’re graded now based on losing their ace starter and 44-homer bat. The dip is minimized by the additions of outfielder Tyler O’Neill and Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, along with backup catcher Gary Sánchez, at a combined $71 million.

Expectations could change again after the Orioles announced Friday evening that they signed veteran starter Charlie Morton to a $15 million deal.

The consensus seems to be that the Orioles remain a playoff team, which back in the day would have been celebrated with tremendous enthusiasm. They haven’t qualified for the postseason in three consecutive years since 1969-71, reaching the World Series each time. Perceptions of a dynasty are ruined by losses in ’69 and ’71. Perceptions of the current club are marred by back-to-back sweeps.

Today, it’s another edition, our pre-Holiday edition, of several questions for O’s fans. Per usual, answer one question or all of them. Respond to other readers' answers with your takes on their takes. 

On to the questions:

1) Where does right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano slot into the O’s rotation? And after going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA in Japan, how well will he do for the 2025 Orioles?

2) Which player will bat leadoff the most next season?

3) Which player will lead the 2025 O’s in home runs and hit how many?

While the Orioles continue to work on their offseason and look to add new players to their roster, getting one already on that roster back to previous form is also on the agenda this winter.

Manager Brandon Hyde, in a phone interview Tuesday, said the club has reached out to catcher Adley Rutschman and the work to get his bat going again has begun.

Rutschman finished 12^th in the AL MVP vote in 2022 and ninth in 2023. But in 2024, his OPS dropped from .809 the previous year to .709.

Last season, on June 27, Rutschman was hitting .300 with an .830 OPS. But in his last 71 games, he batted just .189 with four homers and an OPS of .559.

“We’ve been in regular contact with Adley,” Hyde said from the Winter Meetings in Dallas. “We've put some plans in place and collaborated on some things that we feel like, that he feels like, that he wanted to kind of get back to. That kind of went away the second half. We know what kind of player he is and is going to be. We are doing a lot of things with him to get him back offensively and defensively to be the player that he is.