The Orioles are 4-4 in the Grapefruit League, losers of two straight, and it means as much as the heart-healthy claims on boxes of Cheerios. Maybe if you power-walk to the fridge to get the milk.

Spring training records aren’t important. Take the wins where you can get them, but don’t judge a game by the final score.

For example, the 5-2 loss to the Pirates Saturday. Much more impactful were Cade Povich’s three scoreless innings. He put on a clinic, locating his fastball and secondary stuff. The changeup was outstanding.

Four of Povich’s six strikeouts were looking. He had the Pirates guessing wrong. He had outstanding stuff. And he had a catcher, Adley Rutschman, who did some fine framing.

Povich said afterward on the MASN broadcast that he thought he missed with a curveball, but Rutschman got him the strike.

Samuel Basallo is serving as the designated hitter this afternoon, as the Orioles make another Sunday trip to play the Phillies in Clearwater.

Gary Sánchez is behind the plate.

Ramón Laureano gets the start in center field and is batting leadoff, followed by second baseman Jackson Holliday.

Colton Cowser is in right field and Heston Kjerstad is in left. Coby Mayo is at third base.

Dean Kremer makes his first start after giving up two runs and three hits with two walks and three strikeouts over two relief innings against the Tigers in Sarasota.

Ah, the first week of spring training games. 

The perfect time to toss out wild takes about the upcoming season based on an incredibly small sample size of games that hold minimal weight. 

What takeaways are overreactions? Which far-too-early conclusions could actually come to fruition? 

On this week’s edition of “The Bird’s Nest” (which you can watch here), Annie Klaff and I took a deep dive into some early storylines. On the way up, we’ll see which ones hold any water. 

Heston Kjerstad will have a 20-plus home run season

SARASOTA, Fla. – Orioles outfielder Heston Kjerstad knows that he’s getting a legitimate chance to make the club and to play on a much more regular basis. The rest is up to him.

End the shuttling between the majors and Triple-A Norfolk. Be used as the front office envisioned when it made him the second overall draft pick in 2020. Lots of right field and designated hitter. Anything to keep his bat in the lineup.

His statistics in the Grapefruit League aren’t supposed to really matter, but it doesn’t hurt to pad them anyway.

Kjerstad came to the plate this afternoon in the bottom of the second inning after Tyler O’Neill walked against Tigers starter and top prospect Jackson Jobe. The Orioles trailed 2-0, but Kjerstad knotted the score with an opposite-field home run.

Maybe he’s practicing for when he’s at Camden Yards, with the left field fence moved closer to home plate.

SARASOTA, Fla. – Heston Kjerstad sat quietly at his locker yesterday morning, staring at his phone with legs stretched out and empty chairs on both sides of him. An isolated figure. Pretty much how he likes it.

Kjerstad isn’t anti-social. He just doesn’t command a lot of attention in a clubhouse with some extremely high-profile young players.

The bat, however, can get loud.

The Orioles want to hear it a lot this season. No more breakdowns in his quest to become a regular contributor at the major league level. No injuries or illnesses. No interruptions and options. It’s time to find out what they have in Kjerstad beyond sick power and potential.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias told the media last week that this is a “big opportunity” for Kjerstad and the second-overall pick in the 2020 draft “earned the right to get a lot of at-bats in the corner outfield and in the DH spot, specifically against right-handed pitching.”

Heston Kjerstad’s reputation is that of a powerful slugger from the left side of the plate.

So would you believe me if I told you that he and Jackson Holliday had the exact same career minor league batting average? Or that Kjerstad’s .387 on-base percentage was just three points below Adley Rutschman’s down on the farm? The Arkansas product has proved himself to be a well-rounded force at the plate, and an OPS close to .750 in limited action in the big leagues is a sign of better things to come. Manager Brandon Hyde and general manager Mike Elias seem to think so, too. 

“He’s put up huge Triple-A numbers, and there’s opportunity now,” Hyde told reporters down in Sarasota.

“I think he’s kind of earned the right to get a lot of at-bats in the corner outfield and in the DH spot, specifically against right-handed pitching,” added Elias. 

As Elias said, Kjerstad has earned at-bats in the big leagues. But there are only so many swings and roster spots to go around. 

SARASOTA, Fla. – Grayson Rodriguez’s big strike in the offseason happened on a hunting trip in Mexico, where he shot a ram and now waits for it to clear customs and arrive in the United States.

Rodriguez hasn’t managed to buy Corbin Burnes’ fishing boat but could make his pitch when the team is in Phoenix.

These are the topics that bring a smile to Rodriguez’s face, the more playful side that is buried during those moments when he’s got to be all business. And not the kind that purchases water crafts.

Orioles pitchers and catchers held their first workout yesterday at the Ed Smith Stadium complex. Rodriguez hasn’t appeared in a game since July 31 due to another lat/teres strain that he couldn’t rehab in time to make the Wild Card roster. He didn’t make it past bullpen sessions and watched his teammates get swept by the Royals.

“Feeling good,” he said yesterday. “Last year at the end of the year there was a chance that I was gonna come back and throw. It’s kind of what I was trying to do. Ultimately, it didn’t work out, but the first week that I got home I was fully cleared from the doctors to move on and do my offseason program and everything, and didn’t have a problem.”

SARASOTA, Fla. – Heston Kjerstad arrived early at Orioles spring training, well ahead of the report date for position players. He’s fighting for a roster spot in a crowded outfield, and if he doesn’t make the club, it won’t be for lack of an opportunity.

Kjerstad had his 2024 season ruined by a concussion, a Clay Holmes 96.8 mph sinker to the helmet on July 13 causing benches and bullpens to empty. He was limited to 39 games, with momentum destroyed from a .314/.417/.529 first half. He went 9-for-48 after the break.

Spring training stats are important in some cases, but they apparently won’t apply to Kjerstad.

“I don’t know that he needs to tear the cover off the ball in the Grapefruit League,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said earlier today. “We’ve seen him do that already. He’s played pretty well in a limited opportunity at the major league level. He’s played really well in the minors, and he’s going on 26 and this is a big opportunity for him.

“I think he’s kind of earned the right to get a lot of at-bats in the corner outfield and in the DH spot, specifically against right-handed pitching. But long term, this guy when we took him, one of the best hitters in college baseball and he can hit left-handed pitching. But the big leagues are tough and that’s why we’re putting together a team that has some right-handed options, as well.”

The Orioles outfield is crowded. 

Three everyday starters occupy patches of grass in left, center, and right field. As the 4th outfielder, how can one of the best prospects in the game prove himself without consistent at-bats? 

If this conversation about Heston Kjerstad sounds familiar, it’s because I wasn’t talking about Heston Kjerstad. It’s the conversation that many of us were having at this time last year surrounding Colton Cowser.  

Austin Hays was fresh off an All-Star campaign in 2023. Cedric Mullins hadn’t relinquished his grasp on his center field role since his breakout season in 2021. Anthony Santander had played over 300 games in 2022 and 2023, combining for 61 home runs and a .785 OPS. The starting outfield was set in proverbial stone.  

If Colton Cowser was going to prove himself at the big league level, he was going to have to earn his playing time.  

Prospects ranking season is winding down but, in a ranking released yesterday via The Athletic’s Keith Law, O’s catching prosect Samuel Basallo got his highest-ranking yet and an evaluation that was quite favorable on his defense.

I have written here numerous times that the Orioles have been consistently saying that Basallo can stay as a catcher. They see that big arm and flexible body with agility for someone his size and see a solid defensive catcher.

Basallo was ranked No. 3 in the top 100 by Law, behind only Boston’s Roman Anthony and Sebastian Walcott of the Texas Rangers. In his top 100, Coby Mayo was ranked No. 18 and Enrique Bradfield Jr. was No. 82, giving the O's three top 100 prospects.

Law believes Basallo has shown the tools and athleticism to project as an “above-average defender.” His top 100 is here (subscription may be required).

He goes on to write that: “He’s got at least a 70 arm and is athletic enough to become a 55 receiver and blocker, although right now he’s succeeding more on his pure physical ability and needs more polish on the finer points of catching.”

After trading numerous prospects over the last year or two and graduating others to the big leagues to help a team contend for the last two seasons, the O’s farm system has, predictably, taken a bit of a hit.

They no longer are the No. 1 ranked farm after a long run at the top and for now it seems, their days of populating top 100 lists up and down the rankings, may be limited for now.

In the latest initial release of the Baseball America top 100 prospects poll – the 2025 version of the ranking which first came out in 1990 – the Orioles have three players ranked in the top 100.

Catcher Samuel Basallo, who was No. 10 this time last year, is ranked No. 14. Coby Mayo, No. 25 this time last year, is ranked No. 29 and Heston Kjerstad, No. 41 on the list last January, is now No. 81. Basallo, age 20, is the highest-rated catcher on the BA top 100.

There was a time when three top 100 ranked players was an upgrade for the Orioles, who had two players ranked in 2015, none in 2016 and one in 2017.

With Cedric Mullins set as the O’s center fielder, what do the outfield corners look like? Tyler O’Neill, who signed a free agent deal for three years for $49.5 million that included an opt out after one season, is expected to get many of the starts in right field. Young Heston Kjerstad is also part of that right-field mix no doubt with Colton Cowser, who finished second in the American League Rookie of the Year voting, mostly in left field.

O’Neill, who turns 30 on June 22, last year for Boston made 56 starts in left field, 34 in right field and 17 as the DH. He was named the Red Sox Comeback Player of the Year by the Baseball Writers' Association of America's Boston chapter. O’Neill missed 27 games due to three stints on the injured list.

But over 113 games and 473 plate appearances with Boston, he hit .241/.336/.511/.847 with a 132 OPS+ that was just below Anthony Santander’s 134. Santander is still available in free agency.

O’Neill was a prolific batter versus lefty pitching last season, hitting .313/.430/.750/1.180 with a wRC+ of 215 off southpaws. Against right-handers he batted .209/.290/.403/.693 for a wRC+ of 91. Now he can take aim at the closer fences in left-field and left-center at Oriole Park. 

A Gold Glover in the outfield in 2020 and 2021, O’Neill has made 36 career starts in center field and could spell Mullins there at times as Mullins hit just .196 with a .506 OPS in 2024 versus left-handed pitching.

The Orioles entered a new week with a deeper rotation and the motivation to keep searching for pitching.

Camp doesn’t open for another six weeks.

The mailbag opened again over the weekend. You asked and I answered, leaving us with the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original.

I don’t do much editing, but I provide reminders that my mailbag owns a snow blower and your mailbag shovels the driveway with a spatula.

Even if another starting pitcher and reliever are added to this roster, the current 2025 team seems like we're starting with less than we did in 2024. The Yankees and Red Sox both improved dramatically on paper, and the Blue Jays are still frantically searching for free agents who'll accept Canadian money. The Rays always restock from within, so they can never be counted out. What must Mike Elias do to make this year's Orioles a viable contender, or is this destined to be a "regrouping" year?
There is no prize money for longest question. Just so you know. This question was submitted before the Charlie Morton signing, but I’m sure it holds up. The Orioles already consider themselves contenders based on their returning players and additions. They expect better production from hitters who slumped and they’re counting on better health. Also, the offseason isn’t over. I’m sure you’ve been reminded that they traded for Corbin Burnes on Feb. 1. I think this is a playoff team. That’s as far as I’ll go right now.

I collected some mailbag questions this week but decided to hold onto them. The tables are turning again this morning.

Here are three more of mine. Tell me what you think.

How much does Heston Kjerstad play in 2025?

A path isn’t completely cleared for Kjerstad but he’s got room.

The Orioles let Anthony Santander walk in free agency but they signed Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million deal with an opt-out after the upcoming season. O’Neill isn’t here to sit. He won’t play 162 games but he’ll be a regular presence in the lineup, whether in right field or left.

For the Orioles in recent years, seeing a highly-ranked prospect come up and produce right away has been a challenge. Frankly, it’s a challenge for a lot of players and teams.

Any move up the minor league ladder can be a challenge for a young player but the move to the majors is the hardest. Hard to get there, sometimes harder to stay there.

The O’s can go back to Cal Ripken Jr. to see his rough start in the majors. More recently, then No. 1 ranked prospect Adley Rutschman came up in May of 2022. After his first 20 big league games, he was batting .176 with no homers or RBIs. Colton Cowser hit .115 in 2023, and Grayson Rodriguez had an ERA of 7.35 his first 10 MLB starts. Now he’s a top of the rotation type pitcher.

In 2024, elite prospects like Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo had some big-time MLB struggles.

During the Winter Meetings, O’s director of player development Anthony Villa was asked about how the organization can try to help their top prospects get off to better starts when they arrive in the big leagues?

The shakeup of the major league coaching staff, particularly on the hitting side, isn’t leading to a massive change in philosophy, instruction and reliance on analytics and data.

It’s more about self-examination and perhaps some tweaking. Evolve rather than overhaul.

Cody Asche is the lead hitting coach after serving as offensive strategy coach for two seasons. Upper-level hitting coordinator Sherman Johnson also will serve as an assistant hitting coach, and the Orioles hired Tommy Joseph for the same role.

“I think we’ve always had an attraction to what is described as a modern coach,” said assistant general manager Sig Mejdal. “That’s someone who inspires the players, has their respect, but also doesn’t shy away from questioning convention, looking at data, looking at technology, and that describes Cody and Sherm very well.”

The Orioles have been swept in the playoffs in the last two seasons and managed only one run in 18 innings against the Royals in the Wild Card round. They went 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position, a continuation of their struggles over the second half.

Last year’s Winter Meetings appeared to confirm the handful of Orioles prospects deemed untouchable, at least to some rival executives - a group that included Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad.

This week could present an opportunity for media in Dallas to glean whether some statuses have changed.

Holliday projects as the starting second baseman after a rough introduction to the majors, where he batted .189/.255/.311 with 69 strikeouts in 60 games. He’s made an adjustment at the plate, removing the leg lift as a timing mechanism and going with a toe tap, and the Orioles maintain a high opinion of a player drafted one/one and who ranked as the top prospect in baseball.

Jordan Westburg, Jorge Mateo and Ramón Urías also can play second, giving manager Brandon Hyde infield flexibility. But the ideal setup has Holliday at second, Westburg at third and Urías and Mateo working in utility roles. Mateo also could be an extra right-handed hitting outfielder.

Kjerstad could find many more opportunities bouncing between the outfield and designated hitter. The Orioles signed Tyler O’Neill to replace Anthony Santander, but Kjerstad offers the contrast of a left-handed bat.

A new Baseball America O’s top 10 prospects list dropped this week. Before or even after you get to your Turkey today, take a look at the list and a few thoughts on each player.

1 – Catcher Samuel Basallo: The big man with the big bat ascends to the top spot. Now it’s a matter of time before he makes his MLB debut. A shining star for the O’s international program, he now has plenty of company among the O’s top 30 with numerous other international talents.

He played in the Futures Game in July and Minor League Baseball named him as the Top MLB Prospect in the Double-A-Eastern League. He moved to Triple-A late in the year, where, after a 7-for-44 start, he batted .297 with an .810 OPS his last 11 Triple-A Norfolk games.

2 – Infielder Coby Mayo: Another big man with a big bat. The minor league numbers were pretty special, but he was swinging and missing a ton in his brief time with the Orioles. Patience needed here. Once Mayo hits that first 450-foot shot in the majors, plenty of more are likely to follow. Biggest question for his future – what position will he play?

3 – Outfielder Heston Kjerstad: He has been on the O’s playoff rosters the last two Octobers. Now he could be the replacement in right field if Anthony Santander's signs with another club. The No. 2 pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, the O’s soon need to figure out what they have here. He’s had 814 plate appearances in Double-A and Triple-A over the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

Former catcher Robinson Chirinos is making his coaching debut in 2025. The Orioles are bringing him onto their staff, and they aren’t easing him into the next phase of his professional life.

Chirinos was hired as bench coach, with the club making an announcement this morning. He replaces Fredi González, who wasn’t retained.

Also debuting is Buck Britton, who’s promoted from Triple-A Norfolk manager to major league coach. Britton, older brother of former Orioles closer Zack Britton, replaces José Hernández.

Chirinos, 40, is widely viewed as a future major league manager and he drew heavy praise from manager Brandon Hyde for his knowledge and leadership as the backup catcher in 2022. Chirinos, an 11-year veteran with six clubs, batted .179 with a .552 OPS in 67 games before retiring as a player.

From 2013-19, Chirinos ranked as the sixth-most valuable primary catcher with a 13.0 bWAR.

If the Orioles felt strongly enough about outfielder Heston Kjerstad to put him on their playoff rosters the last two Octobers – and they did do that – could he be in their starting outfield on Opening Day 2025?

If the O’s lose free agent slugger Anthony Santander to another team, could Kjerstad take his spot in right field?

One argument against or making that more challenging is the club’s stated desire to add a right-handed bat. That doesn’t mean that bat will be Santander’s replacement necessarily, should he leave, but finding a right-handed hitting corner outfielder could be done perhaps more easily than at some other defensive spots.

If Santander left and the starters in the outfield are Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins and Kjerstad that is three lefty hitters.

But on the other hand, when will the O’s truly know or see what they have with Kjerstad? They liked him enough to draft him No. 2 overall in 2020 out of Arkansas. We know his injury history and the bout of myocarditis which set him back early in his career, but that is in his rear-view now and again, he’s been on two playoff rosters in two chances to be on one.