Fondly remembering those two years I worked at the side of a baseball legend

Somebody has to be No. 1. Some man or woman has to be the one person that has more college wins than any coach ever in any sport.

That man was the 40-year legendary baseball coach of the Florida State Seminoles, Michael David Martin Sr.

In his 40 years as head coach of the Seminoles under coach Martin, they went 40-for-40 in making the NCAA tourney and yes that is beyond remarkable. His 2,029 wins are more than any college baseball coach ever and more than any NCAA coach ever in any sport on any level.

The Seminoles won 19 conference titles under Martin's leadership, and he was a 13-time conference Coach of the Year. He was the National Coach of the Year in 2012 and 2019. 

Martin had 20 players selected in the first round of the MLB Draft and 60 former players reached the Major Leagues. Eight former players were named National Player of the Year with four – Mike Fuentes, Mike Loynd, J.D. Drew and Buster Posey – recognized with the Golden Spikes Award, college baseball's Heisman Trophy.

Birdland Caravan notes with Means, Mountcastle, Cowser and more

On the first day of Birdland Caravan, where reporters got the chance to interview some players and coaches at the Warehouse, lefty John Means pronounced himself healthy and ready to take on a full season innings load in 2024.

Means returned from Tommy John surgery to get back on a big league mound on Sept. 12 and went 1-2 with a 2.66 ERA in four starts down the stretch. He pitched a huge game Sept. 23 at Cleveland allowing one hit and run over 7 1/3 innings. But he missed the AL Division Series when his surgically repaired left elbow became sore leading up to the series with Texas.

“It was just tight (then), and they looked at the MRI and they told me to take a break on it. Build up in the offseason and be ready to go. I feel really good, really good (now). Had a nice build up this offseason and should be ready to go.”

After throwing 45 1/3 innings in 2023 counting minor league rehab games, can he take on a full-season innings load this season?

“Yeah, I’m ready to go. I’ll be ready,” Means said.

It will be something front and center throughout spring training

It will be, barring a real surprise, the most interesting aspect to track in spring training. And that is, can Jackson Holliday, who turned 20 on Dec. 4, make the O’s Opening Day roster?

Not only can he, but I would put the odds now in his favor.

Before an interview session during the Winter Meetings, I would have probably called it 50-50 at the very best, but then there was the quote heard ‘round Nashville and the one that got all Baltimore reporters’ attention at that event.

"It's definitely a very strong possibility,” Elias said during an interview session in Nashville when asked directly if Holliday could make it on OD? “I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but he had a historic first full season in the minors. Probably, you have to go back into, like, the '80s or '90s to find something similar to that, in my opinion, for an American kid out of high school. Got to Triple-A. Wasn’t there a huge amount of time, didn’t tear the cover off the ball, but he more than held his own and did well.”

And everyone who said he didn’t tear up Triple-A, it was just 22 games counting the playoffs and his .796 OPS was solid. Make no mistake, he more than held his own and looked like he belonged.

Ryan Mountcastle's late-season plate discipline produced impressive results

For a player that has been a key member of the Orioles’ everyday lineup for three full seasons after playing 35 games in the shortened 2020 season, there are many opinions about first baseman/DH Ryan Mountcastle. He can hit the ball hard and far and set an O’s rookie record with 33 homers in 2021, but fans are often divided on whether he will be a sure-fire future slugger for this club or someone that might not quite reach his potential.

His 2023 season was interrupted twice by injured list stints and the first one when he dealt with vertigo and missed time from June 13-July 8 caused some real concern. For the year, Mountcastle was limited to 115 games and 470 plate appearances.

Yet he produced his best full-season batting average of .270 and OBP with the club at .328. He also had a 7.9 walk-rate, topping his mark of 2021 (7.0) and 2022 (7.1). His OPS of .779 produced an OPS+ of 117, which was better than what he posted in 2021 (114) and 2022 (108).

The time missed in addition to the challenge of hitting one out to left field at Camden Yards left his homer total at 18 after he hit 33 in 2021 under the old dimensions and 22 in 2022 with the new ones.

Mountcastle was really struggling when he went to the IL due to vertigo. He batted .231 with an OPS of .691 in the first half and .322/.893 in the second half. That was a big difference and a big finish to his season even though he went on the IL in September also with left AC joint inflammation.

Key offseason topic still front and center: When to trade the prospects?

If on Opening Day the Orioles infield was Ryan Mountcastle, Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg, that would be formidable. Four players that have been top 100 prospects at one time and two that made it to No. 1.

But that would leave no room for others to include vets Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urías and Ryan O’Hearn who are on the 40-man infield and yes of course someone could DH. But it would also leave no room for Joey Ortiz in that infield, or Coby Mayo, or Connor Norby.

The O's organization is deep and filled with prospects at the higher levels after they produced eight Baseball America top 100 players in January of 2023 and six this year.

So yes, one way to alleviate a so-called logjam of talent is to trade from a surplus. This topic dogs the Orioles, who should be able to take a bow or two for the great farm system they have compiled. But at the same time, they get constant questions about how they are going to deploy all that talent.

I recently talked to Baseball America editor-in-chief JJ Cooper on this most interesting challenge for the club.

After three straight years with the Baseball America No. 1 player, could O's extend streak?

When I interviewed Baseball America’s JJ Cooper this week to talk about the Orioles making history in the BA top 100, becoming the first team to have three No. 1 players in three straight years, he had an interesting comment.

“It’s hard to imagine we are going to see this again anytime soon,” he said.

To that point, many in Birdland may have thought “unless the O’s Samuel Basallo (No. 10 right now) makes it four in a row for the Orioles this time next year.”

And that was my follow up to Cooper in that interview. Well, what about a Baltimore four-peat this time with Basallo in 2025?

“It is absolutely a possibility,” said Cooper noting that several players ranked ahead of Basallo currently in their new top 10 are likely to graduate from list eligibility during the new season and he could move up several spots based on that alone. 

An Oriole three-peat: Three years, three different No. 1 ranked prospects

It was not unexpected as O’s prospect Jackson Holliday ended last season as the sport’s No. 1 ranked player. But when Baseball America released a new top 100 list on Wednesday, the Orioles officially became the first team in the 35-year history of their list to have the No. 1 player for three straight seasons.

Three years, three different No. 1 players.

Catcher Adley Rutschman was No. 1 in the initial list release of 2022, infielder Gunnar Henderson was No. 1 in 2023 and now Holliday in 2024.

In 2022, Rutschman went on to post an OPS of .806 for the Orioles and he finished second for AL Rookie of the Year and was 12th in the AL MVP voting. Last year, Henderson posted an OPS .814, won the AL Rookie of the Year Award and finished eighth in the MVP voting.

With the poll release last year, the Orioles then become the first team to ever have two players from the same draft class be No. 1 in consecutive years, with Rutschman and Henderson drafted in 2019. The only team previously with two straight years with two different players getting to No. 1 before 2023 was St. Louis, with J.D. Drew in 1999 and Rick Ankiel topping the ratings in 2000.

Warm thoughts of baseball can help on a snow day in Baltimore

If you live in the Baltimore area, you were out of practice shoveling snow. Not anymore. What a pleasure to get some reps in after the snow overnight Monday into Tuesday. I had almost forgotten how no fun that is.

It does make one say at least once during the shoveling, probably in their head to themselves, “I can’t wait for warm weather and baseball.”

You don’t need to shovel rain or heat.

If seeing something white that wasn’t a baseball made you think even for a second about the 2023 Orioles season, you probably had some warm and nice thoughts at least.

Some have asked me my favorite moment of last year and there is not one really. It’s a blur of good memories and fun times, covering a team that proved it was very good and kept answering every challenge. Until the very end.

Hearing from two players in the O's new international signing class

If you add up the top two bonuses the Orioles handed out on the first day of the international signing period yesterday, they add up to $2.25 million. The club signed 16-year-old shortstop Emilio Sánchez from the Dominican Republic for $1.3 million. They added 16-year-old outfielder Stiven Martínez of the Dominican Republic for $950,000.

On Jan. 15 of last year, they signed infielder Luis Almeyda for $2.3 million. So, in terms of the dollars to the top international signee, that went down for the Orioles in 2024.

What does this mean?

Well, we will find out over many years how all these players grow, play and develop. Who reached the majors and who does not.

But the Orioles under vice president of international scouting and operations Koby Perez have signed some outstanding talent. And they feel really good about this class, no matter the final dollar numbers.

How more first-pitch swinging could help at least one Oriole

The Orioles All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman had such a good season in 2023 that MLB Network recently ranked him as the No. 1 catcher in the sport right now. Hard to be better than No. 1.

Despite that, Rutschman, who will turn 26 on Feb. 6, could still finding another gear for his offense and he is coming into what should be his most productive years as he gets closer to age 30.

Over 154 games last season he batted .277/.374/.435/.809 with 31 doubles, a triple, 20 homers, 84 runs, 92 walks and 80 RBIs. His strikeout rate dropped from the year before from 18.3 to 14.7 and his walk-rate, already strong, held steady at 13.8 to 13.4. In addition to being an All-Star, he won a Silver Slugger award and was ninth in the AL MVP vote after finishing 12th the year before.

Rutschman now has two .800 OPS seasons on his resume with an .806 OPS in 2022 for an OPS+ of 131. His OPS in 2023 was .809 and his OPS+ was 128.

In addition, several of his Statcast defensive metrics are solid. He was ninth in the majors in the Statcast blocks above average metric. He was 11th in their framing stat and tied for 12th with a 1.91 pop time on throws to second base. Only five catchers topped 1.90. He was just 23rd in the metric they call caught stealing above average. He threw out 31 percent of base stealers in 2022 and 22 percent last year.

MLB execs survey was a real positive for the Orioles

We already knew that the Orioles produce young talent about as well as any team in baseball and that the club's farm system is No. 1 in the sport. But it's nice when the industry provides further confirmation of all this.

And this week, the Orioles got further confirmation in a four-part series of articles on MLB.com and MLBPipeline.com. The outlet surveyed from office execs, members of scouting and analytics and player development.

And just about everywhere you looked, the Orioles were doing pretty well.

In the first part of this series the execs were asked who will win the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards? Last year they tabbed Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles and Arizona's Corbin Carroll to win, and both did in 2023.

This time the execs provided 36 percent of their AL votes for outfielder Evan Carter of Texas and 30 percent to O's prospect Jackson Holliday. The Orioles Heston Kjerstad was listed in the also getting votes category.

Will the O's need to hit more homers in the 2024 season?

Earlier this week, in a blog about the Orioles 2023 offense, it was noted that while the club finished fourth in the American League scoring 4.98 runs per game, they were not rated that highly in some other stats like team batting average (sixth), OBP (tied for seventh), slugging (seventh) and team OPS (eighth).

The Orioles were very strong, leading the American League and all of MLB in batting average (.287) with runners in scoring position and team OPS (.837) with RISP. Those are real strong numbers and could well be hard to duplicate.

One area on the stat sheet that the club could hope for some improvement would be in hitting homers. The Orioles have hit fewer homers in two seasons now that the left-field wall is much deeper at Camden Yards. But they actually moved up a bit in team rankings in the AL in homers, despite hitting fewer.

Here is the look at the last four full seasons for the Orioles, two before the wall was moved back and two after.

In 2019 the O’s hit 213 homers to rank 12th in the AL. In 2021 they hit 195 to rank 10th. In 2022, after the wall was moved, they hit 171 but that was eighth and last year they hit 183 and that rated ninth in the AL.

Do the Orioles have enough pitching as the roster currently stands?

In recent days we have discussed the possibility of the Orioles adding a starting pitcher via a trade and it’s been a topic at hand for the entire offseason. The club remains one of several that seem intent on adding one quality starting pitcher to their current rotation.

Barring a real surprise – one where the Orioles dive into the deep-end of the free-agent pool and offer big dollars to someone – a trade for a pitcher has seemed the most logical move all along. They have a deep and talented farm and can compete with just about anyone via the trade market where they don’t seem to have the same desire via free agency.

But what if the Orioles miss out here or in the end, determine they are not ready to meet the trade price to get another starting pitcher? What if they have to take the field in late March without an addition in the rotation?

Do they have enough right now to have a 90-100 win team that will contend for the playoffs? Probably, but another starter would sure provide added insurance to better answer that as being more positive.

For the 2023 season, the O’s team ERA was 3.89 to rank fifth-best in the American League. Baltimore was just a few points behind third-place Tampa Bay's 3.86 and a bit further back of first-place Minnesota's 3.74.

O's could face challenges to match their run output from the 2023 season

Through the 2023 year, the Orioles have now played 70 seasons since moving to Baltimore in 1954. In just eight of those seasons, or 11.4 percent of them, have the Birds scored 800 or more runs.

We didn’t know that when the 2004 team scored 842 runs – third-most in club history – that it would not be the 2023 season until another O’s club would top that 800-run mark.

Now offense was up a bit in baseball in 2023 as players got more hits with infield shifts made illegal and the new rules allowed for more stolen bases. The games were shorter and the runs more plentiful.

During the 2022 season, the MLB average by a team was 4.28 runs per game. That shot up to 4.62 last season. It was 4.55 in the AL. The Orioles at 4.98 runs per game ranked fourth-most in the AL and seventh-most in all of MLB.

We know the Orioles offense slumped late in the year and they scored two runs or less in seven of the final 11 regular-season games and then twice more in three postseason games. That dropped that final average under 5.00 runs per game.

The decision to trade prospects is always challenging

The mood around Birdland – at least on this blog – got a bit tense Sunday in discussions about a possible trade for Chicago White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease. It is clear that some fans are very, very nervous about trading prospects. They are waiting and watching to see what executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias will do.

Would he really deal some prospects for a pitcher?

Well, first, keep in mind, he already has.

On Jan. 26, 2023 he acquired lefty Cole Irvin and righty Kyle Virbitsky from Oakland for infielder Darrel Hernaiz, the club’s fifth-round pick in the 2019 draft. At the time of the deal, he was ranked as the Orioles’ No. 16 prospect via MLBPipeline.com and is now No. 9 on Oakland’s top 30. Between Double-A and Triple-A for the Athletics he hit .321 with an .842 OPS, nine homers and 71 RBIs. His MLB debut could be close.

On Aug. 1 last summer, on the final day to make a trade before the MLB deadline, Elias acquired righty Jack Flaherty from St. Louis for infielder César Prieto and pitchers Drew Rom and Zack Showalter. At the time of that deal, Prieto was the O’s No. 16 prospect and Rom No. 18 via MLBPipeline. Showalter was unranked but was the club’s 11th round pick in 2022 and had done well pitching at lower levels on the farm.

After the ROY award, there is a lot more to come for O's Gunnar Henderson

There were 41 players taken ahead of the Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson in the 2019 MLB Draft. If they could re-do that draft today, that number would be very, very different.

At No. 42 the Orioles got a steal.

A driven young talent that rose to become the No. 1 prospect in the sport. He made the majors at age 21 and turned 22 last June 29. Later in the 2023 season he would be named the Most Valuable Oriole and in November he was the unanimous pick – getting all 30 first-place votes – to become the Orioles’ seventh American League Rookie of the Year.

When you think of what is still to come for this kid and how good he could become, you might ponder future MVP Awards and him leading the team to the top of the MLB world in some October down the road.

On the stat sheet we could ponder how much better the numbers could get for him.

Playoff experience can be valuable and now the O's have it

When the Orioles took the field last October for Game 1 of the American League Division Series against Texas, they looked like a pretty complete team. One that produced 101 wins and a division championship, had an emerging young talent base and a few different ways to beat their opponent.

There was at least one element missing however – they had little playoff experience.

A few veteran players had played in the postseason before, such as Aaron Hicks, Adam Frazier and James McCann and a few pitchers had a few postseason innings like Kyle Gibson, Jacob Webb and Jack Flaherty, but the core of the roster did not. Their young talent which led the club all year, did not.

Was that the reason Texas swept the Orioles three in a row? Well, not the only reason but more likely one of many. The five-day layoff between the regular season and the first playoff game seemed challenging for several teams that won 100 games to include the Orioles. That was another factor. So was the fact that within the playoffs, teams generate their own momentum, and it can come fast. Texas swept two straight from Tampa Bay and was a team starting to roll when they arrived in Baltimore.

They let the AL West get away from them late in the year. But as a No. 5 seed, they rolled to the World Series title. The playoffs are a crapshoot and unpredictable and that has as much to do with the loss as anything most likely.

Will Craig Kimbrel change or alter his pre-pitch routine this season?

On his way to recording 417 saves – the eighth-most in MLB history – with a chance this year to move to fourth on the list, new O’s closer Craig Kimbrel has featured a most unusual set-up out of the stretch position.

Bent over at the waist, his right arm dangles out to the right and there is a bit of a stare-down before each pitch. When Kimbrel talked to O’s reporters early last month, he discussed how he got to that pre-pitch routine, also hinting it could change at times next season.

“It’s pretty simple,” Kimbrel said on an O’s video call with media. “There was never really much behind it. I’ve always leaned over, but my arm for a long time was behind my back. In growing up and going from being a young kid playing the game to an older man playing the game, my arm just wasn’t going behind my back anymore. So, I started to let it hang and it kind of transformed into something that I would use to lock in. To say, ‘OK, It’s time to go.’ The fun, the happy, the joking, the loving Craig we get for most of the day, it’s time for him to get serious and to focus. It was a tool I was able to use over the years to really lock in pitch-to-pitch.

“You know I have a couple of ideas this year to try to work with that with the new rules of the game – the pitch clock and windup and things. The game is changing, so I need to change a little bit. Kind of excited this spring to try and make that work. The game is forever changing and if we don’t keep up with that, we’ll be left behind. It’s something I’ve done for a long, long time and something I will continue to do, but I think this year we might see something a little quicker and a little better.”

It will be interesting to see how that plays out. The biggest concern for the team will be, of course, not how he looks in throwing the ball but what happens after he lets it go.

The year 2023 will be remembered in Birdland as the year the O's moved back atop the AL East

As the calendar year 2023 comes to an end today, we can reflect on what a special year it was for the Baltimore Orioles and their fans. It was a year they returned to the playoffs, they returned to the top of the AL East and they returned to a club that won 100-plus games.

The Orioles finished 101-61 to hold off the Tampa Bay Rays by two games to win their 10th AL East championship. Their 101 wins were the most in the American League and second in the majors, behind Atlanta, which won 104.

The season ended with a three-game sweep by the Texas Rangers in the AL Division Series. But what a ride it was until the season came crashing down with a 7-1 loss Oct. 10 in Arlington, Tex.

It was a year where:

The Orioles recorded their sixth all-time season with 100 or more wins and came up with their most since 1980.

Is this pitcher a bit overlooked in the Baltimore rotation?

He is not the forgotten man in the Orioles starting rotation but maybe he is at times slightly overlooked.

With Birdland excited about Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez at the top of that rotation and the return of lefty John Means late last year in addition to the potential to add another starter, we can look past the 2023 contributions of right-hander Dean Kremer.

And we certainly should not, although on the stat sheet, his ’23 was not as strong in some respects as his ’22. But last season Kremer made 32 starts and the Orioles went 24-8 (.750). That stat alone should grab your attention. For comparison, they went 19-11 (.633) in Bradish’s starts and 14-9 (.609) when Rodriguez took the mound.

That doesn’t make Kremer a better pitcher since so much goes into that record like the defense behind you, run support and the ability for the late relievers to close out your game. But Kremer puts his team in position to win such a high percentage of his starts.

His season was marred by a slow start. In fact, his ERA was 6.67 in April. But then it was 3.59 his last 26 starts, as the Orioles went 21-5. Had he posted a 3.59 ERA for the full year he would have finished ninth in the AL in that stat.