Nats' path back to contention must go through tough NL East

The Nationals want to be better in 2025. Better enough to contend in the National League East.

Which means, first and foremost, they’re going to have to play better against the NL East.

It probably won’t surprise you to learn the Nats haven’t finished with a winning record against division opponents since 2019, which just so happens to be the last time they finished with a winning record overall (not to mention the Commissioner’s Trophy). The results against the Braves, Marlins, Mets and Phillies in recent years hasn’t been pretty.

But there has been actual improvement. The low point came in 2022, when the Nationals lost 107 games overall and produced a dismal 17-59 record within the division, a .224 winning percentage. Major League Baseball’s schedule changes beginning in 2023 meant a lot fewer intradivision games, but the Nats still struggled that season, going 19-33 for a .365 winning percentage.

We finally saw real progress this year, resulting in a respectable 25-27 record against the NL East, good for a .481 winning percentage. And most notably, the Nationals actually had a winning record against two division foes, going a solid 8-5 against Atlanta and a dominant 11-2 against Miami one year after stumbling to the exact opposite record in that matchup.

Nats need to start closing gap within division

PHILADELPHIA – The Nationals have made progress this year, no doubt.

For the most part, the young pitching staff has made strides. CJ Abrams was an All-Star. Jacob Young is the favorite to win the National League Gold Glove Award in center field. Luis García Jr. and Keibert Ruiz are having strong second halves. And a crop of newly acquired young talent is getting their shot at the major league level.

Plus, the Nats now boast a top-five farm system, per Baseball America, that has depth at the lower levels of the minor leagues and top prospects nearing their big league debuts.

But although they were on pace to eclipse their 71 wins from last year for much of this season, after last night’s brutal 13-3 loss to the Phillies they have the same record after 122 games as they had in 2023: 55-67.

And last night’s loss underscored the next step the Nats need to take to get where they want to be.

Nats get Marlins monkey off their back to set up more successful season

MIAMI – The Nationals won 16 more games in 2023 than they did in 2022. Although that was an obvious improvement, they were careful not to label it a successful season. After all, 71 wins isn’t something to brag about.

The goal is to finish above .500. To get back to the playoffs. To win another championship.

Those are the successes the Nats are striving for this year and in the next couple of years.

The record comes first. With yesterday’s win over the Marlins to complete a four-game series mopping, the Nats are at .500 for the first time this late into a season since they were 40-40 entering July 2, 2021.

Some might try to poke fun at a team celebrating being 14-14. But you have to call it what it is: Progress.

A minor improvement that could have a major positive effect

As they sought reasons for optimism one year ago, the Nationals knew they could point to the development of their young players, the potential bounce-back performances of some veterans and improved defense (especially around the infield).

They also hoped Major League Baseball’s new schedule format would make a positive difference.

The 2022 Nats were bad at everything, but they were especially bad at beating their division rivals. They finished an atrocious 17-59 against the NL East, a .224 winning percentage that was the worst by any big-league club since division play began in 1969.

Ah, but in 2023 the schedule underwent its most dramatic makeover since interleague play debuted in 1997. For the first time in baseball history, every NL team would play every AL team in at least one three-game series.

The domino effect of that increase in interleague play: A dramatic drop in intra division games, from 76 (19 vs. each opponent) to 52 (13 vs. each opponent). And boy did the Nationals benefit from that.

How the rest of the NL East figures into Nats' rebuild

When gauging where the Nationals stand in their rebuilding efforts, the simplest answer is to look at their won-loss record since the process began. They went 65-97 in 2021 while starting to tear down the roster. They bottomed out at 55-107 in 2022 after trading Juan Soto. Then they started the climb back up toward contention with a 71-91 record this season, positioning themselves to take another key step forward that could have them on the fringes of contention in 2024.

And there’s nothing wrong with that approach. Sometimes, it’s important to judge a team against itself, not anybody else.

But we do have to acknowledge an important caveat here: The Nats do not exist in a vacuum. They’re one of five teams in the National League East division, one of 15 teams in the NL. Their success ultimately is dependent in many ways on how those other teams do, whether they’re trying to win the division or finish with one of the three best records in the NL among non-division winners to secure a wild card berth.

The Nationals could be better next season, a lot better, and it may not matter if enough other teams in the NL remain ahead of them in the standings.

Which makes their geographic location a bit of a hindrance to the whole rebuild process. As a member of the NL East, the Nats face some additional challenges they wouldn’t face in another division.

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