We always knew the Nationals weren't going to be good this season. We just had no idea how bad it would get, not only in terms of their 55-107 record, but the fact they traded Juan Soto in early August in an attempt to completely revamp their farm system.

Sometimes, it's tougher to predict how a bad season will play out than a good one. That certainly was the case for me and my colleagues on the Nationals beat, who attempted way back on April 7 to guess how things would go this year and in most cases failed miserably.

There were a few spot-on predictions, but plenty more swings and misses, as you'll see below. As has been our tradition since we first made these predictions in 2010, we always come back to revisit them after the season ends, just to show everyone out there how misguided we were all along ...

WHICH NATIONALS WILL BE SELECTED FOR THE ALL-STAR GAME?
Bobby Blanco (MASNsports.com) - Juan Soto
Jessica Camerato (MLB.com) - Juan Soto
Jesse Dougherty (Washington Post) - Juan Soto
Andrew Golden (Washington Post) - Juan Soto
Craig Heist (106.7 The Fan) - Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz
Chelsea Janes (Washington Post) - Keibert Ruiz, Juan Soto
Pete Kerzel (MASNsports.com) - Juan Soto
Bill Ladson (MLB.com honorary) - Juan Soto
Mark Zuckerman (MASNsports.com) - Juan Soto

SAN DIEGO – Ask Davey Martinez if he’d be satisfied to get a 2.86 ERA out of his pitching staff over a full week, and the Nationals manager wouldn’t just say he’s satisfied. He’d jump for joy out of his shoelaces.

Martinez has been waiting all year for a sustained stretch of quality pitching like this, the kind of stretch he used to expect from his star-studded rotation of 2018-20 but hasn’t realistically been plausible this season.

Ah, but here’s the rub: Just as the Nats pitching staff has put together its best weeklong stretch in ages, the Nats lineup has gone limp. That group, admittedly depleted by trades and injuries, has scored only 23 runs over the same seven games, four of which have now been losses.

Today’s 2-1 defeat at the hands of the Padres was the latest and most aggravating of the bunch. Less than 24 hours after losing by the exact same score via a pair of solo homers from former teammates Josh Bell and Juan Soto, the Nationals lost today’s game via a two-run homer from Bell, who accounted for all of San Diego’s offense.

Bell’s opposite-field shot off Patrick Corbin in the bottom of the sixth was all the Padres needed. That’s because the Nats managed just one run-scoring hit of their own, and that was Nelson Cruz’s towering (but solo) homer to left in the fourth.

SAN DIEGO – As well as they had done against Juan Soto and Josh Bell through the first five games they played against their former teammates, the Nationals had to know it was only a matter of time before both sluggers broke through in a big way.

They just hoped it wouldn’t happen against them. Certainly not within the same ballgame.

Alas, Soto and Bell decided tonight was the night to bust loose. And thanks to the solo homer each current Padre hit, the Nationals were left to suffer a 2-1 loss at Petco Park.

The Padres didn’t do much else at the plate, and they continue to make their fans sweat as they try to turn a potent-on-paper lineup into a potent-in-reality lineup. But all they needed tonight were those two big blasts to emerge victorious.

"Those guys, you know what kind of players they are," manager Davey Martinez said. "Bell got a ball up where he handles. And Soto got a ball, I think, right down the middle. Two good hitters."

First came the video tribute, with plenty of highlights of Juan Soto and Josh Bell in Nationals uniforms, plus a taped message from Soto himself to D.C. fans, prompting a big round of applause. Then came the announcement of the Padres’ starting lineup, featuring Soto batting second and Bell batting fourth, each of them receiving more applause.

Then came the top of the first, with Soto stepping to the plate to a standing ovation, taking off his helmet and saluting the crowd. Two batters later, Bell got the same treatment and responded in kind.

It all made for a heartfelt reunion of former players returning to South Capitol Street, even if they were traded away only 10 days ago. And then ultimately yet another frustrating night of baseball for the Nationals and their fans, who watched as Soto, Bell and the Padres beat them 10-5 in a game that only looked somewhat close because of a bottom-of-the-ninth rally.

"You never realize it until you're there," Soto said of the emotions he felt throughout the game. "When I stepped to the plate and saw all my teammates and everybody's clapping, it was a pretty cool moment."

Emotional as they both were to leave the Nats at the trade deadline, the two sluggers were equally excited to join a San Diego club in the thick of a pennant race. Soto went so far as to verbalize that before the game, saying: “When you’re on a winning team, the level of your game just goes higher and higher.”

Juan Soto was here in April 2019 when Bryce Harper returned to Nationals Park for the first time as a Phillie. He was here this April when Max Scherzer returned to Nationals Park for the first time as a Met. He was here this May when Trea Turner returned to Nationals Park for the first time as a Dodger.

It was strange seeing former teammates, superstars who made their names here in D.C. and in some cases won their first championships with him, come back wearing different uniforms, eliciting different reactions from fans that loved them when they played here and now had to get used to the idea of them playing for someone else.

Could Soto have imagined he’d find himself in that exact position so soon, as he will be tonight when the 23-year-old star takes the field on South Capitol Street not as a member of the Nationals but instead the Padres?

“At that moment, I never think about it,” he said today before a throng of reporters packed into the visitors’ dugout prior to batting practice. “As soon as I get traded, I really think about it, and how cool the fans were with them and how much they enjoyed it. And I’m just going to try to do the same thing.”

The scene tonight should be overwhelmingly positive, with Nationals fans showering Soto – and former and current teammate Josh Bell – with love in his return. That will help make it a little easier for them. But that doesn’t mean it will feel normal, not while the emotions are still so fresh from a trade that happened only 10 days ago.

On the afternoon of Aug. 2, only hours after the Nationals had finalized a deal to send Juan Soto and Josh Bell to San Diego for six players, Davey Martinez was informed the Padres were scheduled to come to D.C. in a mere 10 days.

“Thanks,” the manager said in a wry, sarcastic tone as he contemplated what that would entail. “We gotta to get him out. We’ve got 10 days to think about that.”

Martinez had far more pressing matters to contend with over the last week and a half, namely how to put together a lineup capable of giving his worst-in-baseball club at least a chance of winning some games. The Nats have gone 2-7 since the trade deadline, underscoring just how daunting that challenge has been.

And now comes maybe the most difficult challenge yet: Facing Soto and Bell so soon after trading them. The three-game series that begins tonight at Nationals Park will be filled with emotion, not all of it positive as the scars of that franchise-altering transaction still burn.

It was an odd fate of scheduling that created this scenario. The Padres come to Washington only once per season. That trip just so happened to come right now. On top of that, the Nats make their lone trip of the year to San Diego next week, cramming their only seven head-to-head games into a 10-day window.

Three of the six players the Nationals acquired from the Padres this week, all of them age 18-20, won’t be sniffing the major leagues for some time. The other three, though, are poised to join the club before season’s end, one of them as soon as tonight.

Luke Voit, the lone veteran to be included in the blockbuster deal that sent Juan Soto and Josh Bell to San Diego, is scheduled to meet the team in Philadelphia and will probably be in the lineup for tonight’s series opener against the Phillies.

The 31-year-old will see time both at first base and designated hitter the rest of the way, according to manager Davey Martinez. Though he had pedestrian numbers this season with the Padres (a .225/.317/.416 slash line with 13 homers and 48 RBIs in 344 plate appearances), Voit’s .733 OPS is as good as anyone currently in the Nats lineup.

Over parts of six big league seasons with the Cardinals, Yankees and Padres, Voit owns a strong .838 OPS and 86 homers. He led the American League with 22 homers and finished ninth in MVP voting during the condensed 2020 season.

And because he’s under club control through 2024 (same as Soto), Voit could figure into the Nationals’ plans beyond this year.

As he sat down in front of a bank of cameras and recorders and reporters, the likes of which hadn’t been present at Nationals Park in a long time, Mike Rizzo made a statement about his decision to trade Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres for six players, five of them highly rated prospects.

Rizzo made his statement not only through his words, but also through his attire. On this, one of the most significant days of his 13-year tenure as general manager, he wore his 2019 World Series ring on his left hand, not to mention a red polo shirt with the visage of the Commissioner’s Trophy on the chest.

“I wore this ring purposely,” he said. “It shows what we’ve done in the past, and what we’re going to do in the future. In 2019, we had a slogan: ‘Bumpy roads lead to beautiful places.’ We’re on a bumpy road right now, and we believe that coming out of this thing, it’ll be a beautiful place.”

This road may indeed lead to a beautiful place someday, but that day won’t be anytime soon. The path back to winning baseball in D.C. is going to feature all sorts of bumps and potholes and other obstacles, and while Tuesday’s blockbuster trade of Soto to San Diego may produce some nice new paving way down at the end of the journey, it didn’t do anything to smooth over the asphalt sitting right in front of the Nats right now.

To be clear, this is not – and should not – be framed as a good thing for anybody. This isn’t something anyone wanted to do. It’s not something anyone should have wanted the Nationals to do.

Once word that Juan Soto turned down the Nationals’ 15-year, $440 million extension offer – prompting the club to explore the possibility of trading its 23-year-old superstar – became public 17 days ago, Mike Rizzo began the process of figuring out which other organizations might actually be in a position to make a trade happen.

The Nats general manager realized the list of candidates, essentially clubs that were both in a win-now mode while also having enough elite talent in their farm system, would be short. In recent days, it became clear there were only three serious suitors: the Padres, Cardinals and Dodgers. And by the time trade deadline day arrived, it was clear that if a deal was going to happen, it was going to be with the Padres.

“We had to get the right deal, or we weren’t going to do the deal,” Rizzo said. “We set the bar very, very high, and one team exceeded it and that’s the deal we made. Props to the San Diego Padres. They’re not afraid, and ownership’s not afraid and (general manager) A.J. Preller’s not afraid. They were aggressive, and we made a deal that you call historical. I call it a good deal for both the San Diego Padres and the Washington Nationals at this time in both our franchise’s history.”

It will be some time before anyone can say with certainty if it was a good deal for either franchise. The Padres must now actually win something in October with Soto and Josh Bell added to a roster that already features Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Yu Darvish and (just recently) Josh Hader. The Nationals must hope several of the five prospects they acquired today (along with veteran first baseman Luke Voit) become not only big leaguers but cornerstones who ultimately help them win a lot more games than they’re winning these days.

In the minutes and hours that came after today’s blockbuster news was reported, those who remained at Nationals Park were having a tough time thinking that far into the future. They were more concerned with the two cornerstones from the 2022 roster who are no longer here, not to mention wondering if anyone else from the room would be dealt.

The Nationals finalized a blockbuster deal this afternoon that is sending Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres for six players – both major and minor leaguers – that once completed represented the most dramatic trade deadline transaction in club history, and arguably in baseball history.

The nearly unprecedented package included Soto and Bell going to San Diego for a group of prospects that included two players who made their major league debuts this season (left-hander Mackenzie Gore and shortstop C.J. Abrams), plus three younger, top-rated prospects (right-hander Jarlin Susana, outfielders Robert Hassell and James Wood), as well as veteran first baseman Luke Voit.

Voit was added to the deal after fellow veteran first baseman Eric Hosmer informed the Padres he would not waive his partial no-trade clause to come to the Nationals. Hosmer wound up getting dealt to the Red Sox instead, with Voit now coming to Washington and expected to take over at first base in the coming days.

The deal came roughly six hours before the 6 p.m. trade deadline, but given the complexities and number of people involved, it needed to be agreed upon earlier in the day. General manager Mike Rizzo had been in talks with several other clubs, including the Cardinals and Dodgers, over the last few days but honed in on the Padres as deadline day arrived.

The Soto-Bell blockbuster, as it turns out, was the only trade the Nationals made today. The deadline came and went with no other moves made, per a club source, leaving Nelson Cruz, Kyle Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr., Steve Cishek, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco and other potential trade candidates on the roster moving forward.

Davey Martinez submitted a lineup card for Monday night’s game a little after 3 p.m. By that point, the Nationals manager already knew utility man Ehire Adrianza had been traded, with Ildemaro Vargas called up from Triple-A Rochester to take his roster spot. Everything else, as far as he knew, remained the status quo.

Not that Martinez wasn’t acutely aware of the possibility something else could change before first pitch at 7:05 p.m. Any of a number of his regular members from the lineup or bullpen could be dealt away at any moment, so he made sure to consult with bench coach Tim Bogar about all the potential fallback plans should something occur either before, or during, the game against the Mets.

“We’ll see what happens in the next 48 hours,” Martinez said. “But we do have to think about the what-ifs – which I try not to, until it happens – but we’ve got to be prepared.”

By night’s end, there was no need for all that prep work. The Nationals made no more deals on Trade Deadline Eve, withholding everything for the final day, it appears.

If they’re going to part with Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr., Steve Cishek or anybody else, they’re going to have to do it in a hurry, with the deadline approaching at 6 p.m. Eastern.

It’s been 16 days now, 16 long days, since the first report emerged of Juan Soto declining a 15-year, $440 million extension, prompting the Nationals to “entertain” the possibility of trading their star right fielder.

Everyone has been put through the ringer ever since. Soto, who can’t make it through a single day without somebody bombarding him with questions about his uncertain future. The Nats, who have attempted to walk the tightrope between seeking out legitimate trade offers while simultaneously stressing they still prefer Soto stays in D.C. for the long term. Local and national media members, who spend every waking minute trying to decipher whatever clues are out there about the team’s intentions. And, of course, fans who experienced the full range of emotions and are now bracing for whatever outcome is on the horizon.

An outcome that is now nearly ready to reveal itself.

At some point in the next 34 hours, the Nationals are either going to trade Soto to a contending club for perhaps the best prospects haul in baseball history, or they’re going to let Tuesday’s 6 p.m. trade deadline pass without making the move and allow this issue to be resolved at some later date.

Everyone has an opinion. Everyone has a prediction for how this will play out. But the man in the middle of it all just wants to know, once and for all, whose uniform he’s going to be wearing the rest of the season.

With a chance to win a second consecutive series over a National League contender, the Nationals instead today did what they’ve done so many times over the last four months. They dug themselves into a hole with shaky defense and a penchant for giving up a big home run. And they did next-to-nothing offensively to give themselves a chance at coming back from that deficit.

So it was the Nats went down quietly to the Cardinals this afternoon, losing 5-0 in the rubber game of the weekend series and ending a miserable July on another uninspired note.

Fortunately, Saturday night’s dramatic win ensured this would not be the worst month in club history. Even with today’s loss, the Nationals finished July with a 6-19 record for a .240 winning percentage, narrowly besting July 2008 (.208) and April 2009 (.238) as the lowest points this franchise has experienced since arriving in town.

Now, though, the calendar shifts to August, and there is legitimate reason to worry the two months that remain this season could rival the just-completed one in terms of misery.

The next 48 hours will help determine that fate, as general manager Mike Rizzo decides who from his current 26-man roster to deal and who to retain before Tuesday’s 6 p.m. trade deadline. Given how many potential moves are on the table, Rizzo may not have the luxury of waiting until Tuesday to start the process.

An inordinate amount of the Nationals’ offensive production this season has come via the bats (and the eyes) of Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Together, those two have accounted for 23 percent of the team’s hits, 28 percent of their runs, 42 percent of their walks and 43 percent of their homers.

So, imagine what this lineup would look like in August and September should Soto and Bell no longer be wearing curly W helmets at the plate. Actually, don’t imagine it. It’s too depressing.

Instead, just appreciate whatever time remains with these two larger-than-life sluggers batting back-to-back in Davey Martinez’s lineup. Just as a boisterous crowd of 34,440 did tonight as Soto and Bell helped lead the Nationals to a 7-6, come-from-behind win over the Cardinals.

Soto did his usual thing, reaching base four times (thrice via walks, once via single). And Bell did the thing he’s done regularly in his 1 1/2 years in D.C.: Deliver a big hit in a big moment, belting a three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh to give his team the lead and elicit a roar from the crowd.

"Awesome. And well-deserved," Martinez said. "I'm not going to think about what's going to happen in the next few days. I just know that today was a great win for us, and he was a big part of it."

LOS ANGELES – Luis García stepped into Dodger Stadium for the first time Monday night, and like many of his young teammates, was struck more than anything by the bass-thumping sound system at this venerable ballpark.

By the time he found himself rounding the bases in the top of the eighth tonight, the primary sound the Nationals shortstop heard was the chorus of boos from a sellout throng of 53,302, the largest crowd to watch a major league game this season.

García’s two-run homer, a no-doubt blast to right off left-hander Garrett Cleavinger, lifted the Nats to another improbable victory over the Dodgers, this one by the eventual count of 8-3 thanks to four tack-on runs in the ninth. Winners of three in a row, a team that had just lost 17 of 19 will return here Wednesday afternoon with a chance to sweep their first series of the year, no matter the opponent.

"You know what? I've always said this: If our starting pitchers can keep us in the game, we'll score some runs, and our bullpen's been pretty good," said manager Davey Martinez, who earned his 300th career win. "They're playing well right now, and I'm proud of the guys. Because all year long we've fallen short, but they don't quit. And I love that about them." 

It’s been impossible to watch these games the last two nights, complete with lockdown relief pitching and score-flipping homers, and not hearken back to games played between these same franchises in this same ballpark two Octobers ago. García’s homer tonight (one of the 22-year-old’s three hits in the game) certainly resembled the one Juan Soto mashed off Clayton Kershaw in Game 5 of the 2019 NLDS.

PHOENIX – So little about the Nationals’ performance this afternoon at Chase Field was inspired. There were egregious outs run into on the bases, errors committed in the field, long innings defined by deep counts and walks issued.

And yet when it really mattered in the end, the Nats found a way to do just enough to put themselves in position to win. They got a clutch double from Josh Bell in the seventh (and an overturned call on a quirky play that went their way for once). They got a clutch hit by Keibert Ruiz in the eighth to give themselves a rare lead. And then they rode their new closer for five outs to emerge with a 4-3 victory that felt oh so good, no matter how bad this game actually looked at times.

Thus did the Nationals avoid a weekend sweep in Arizona and win for only the third time in their last 20 games. The outcome changes nothing about the broader picture for this floundering franchise, but for one afternoon it was OK to smile.

"We haven't had a lot of comeback wins this year," starter Erick Fedde said. "So those are the ones that are big confidence boosters. And I think the more you do it, the easier it is to have a recurrence. It's good for us. I hope to see more wins like that for us."

The go-ahead rally was ignited by Lane Thomas, pinch-hitting for Yadiel Hernandez to open the eighth. Facing All-Star left-hander Joe Mantiply, Thomas lined a hit to left-center, then hustled his way into second for a double to set the stage. Luis García put down a well placed sacrifice bunt to advance him to third, then Ruiz laced an RBI single to right for his third hit of a game that also included a walk drawn.

PHOENIX – Hello from the Valley of the Sun, where the temperatures have been in the 110s all week. Fortunately, it won’t be anywhere close to that inside Chase Field tonight when the Nationals open the second half of the season against the Diamondbacks.

The All-Star break allowed Davey Martinez to rearrange his rotation however he preferred, and he chose to open up tonight with Patrick Corbin, followed by Aníbal Sánchez on Saturday and Erick Fedde on Sunday. That means the team is using this opportunity to give Josiah Gray an extended break before he presumably pitches next week at the Dodgers, perhaps saving up some of his innings to ensure he’s good to finish the season.

So it’s Corbin tonight facing his former team, though not for the first time. He’s made two previous starts against the Diamondbacks (once in 2019, once earlier this year) and was rocked in each of them to the tune of 14 earned runs in only 7 1/3 innings.

The Nationals go up against right-hander Zac Gallen, with a lineup that includes César Hernández leading off and Keibert Ruiz batting second ahead of Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz. We’ve seen Martinez tinker with the top two spots in his lineup a lot in recent weeks. Until he finds something that works, he may have to continue to tinker.

The bullpen has a couple new (but actually familiar) faces for this series. Víctor Arano was activated off the injured list, his first appearance on the active roster since he hurt his knee back on June 5. They also recalled Hunter Harvey from Triple-A Rochester, bringing back the hard-throwing right-hander quickly after sending him down before the All-Star break. They were able to do that because he’s replacing an injured teammate: Tyler Clippard, who was placed on the 15-day IL (retroactive to July 19) with a left groin strain.

PHOENIX – The All-Star break should be a time for rest and relaxation, a chance to get away from it all and clear your mind before gearing back up for the second half of the season. For the Nationals, this All-Star break wasn’t at all about rest, and nobody was able to relax.

The last four days have seen the franchise under the bright spotlight of the baseball world, all because of the sudden possibility Juan Soto could be dealt before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, with just about every other team in the sport trying to figure out if it has enough top prospects who could be packaged together to get the Nats to say yes.

There also, of course, was the MLB Draft, which began Sunday night and continued through Tuesday, using up a large chunk of front offices’ time and energy during what traditionally has been a welcome break from the grind.

Now, though, the break is over. The second half begins tonight. And for the Nationals, that means the focus potentially turns back to the field. Which isn’t necessarily a good thing.

Let’s not forget these guys lost 15 of their last 17 games heading into the All-Star break. And one of those wins came Sunday in the first-half finale, in a bullpen game started by Erasmo Ramirez against a Braves team that seemed content to just coast into the break.

The All-Star break has come and gone. The first half of the season is no more. Everybody’s enjoying one more day of relaxation before regathering Friday and commencing the second half.

For the Nationals, this is going to be a second half of change and promise, and perhaps some heartbreak as well. A lot could happen in these next few weeks leading up to the Aug. 2 trade deadline, after which the roster may look even less like the one that was trying to win championships not that long ago.

There will be no shortage of storylines to monitor the rest of the way. Here are five particularly important ones …

1. Is this really it for Soto in D.C.?
There was zero reason to even broach this subject one week ago. Of course Juan Soto would be finishing out the season with the Nationals, perhaps putting forth another monster second half and making an MVP case for himself, no matter the team’s record. That all changed Saturday with The Athletic’s report that Soto had turned down a 15-year, $440 million extension with the Nats, who now were going to explore the possibility of trading him.

It’s a bombshell development, one that could fundamentally change the way the rest of this season plays out for the Nationals. That doesn’t mean general manager Mike Rizzo is definitely going to trade Soto by Aug. 2. Given how complicated such a trade would be, there’s probably a good chance he doesn’t do it yet and re-explores the market over the winter (when the franchise may have some more stability on the ownership front, by the way).

Look down upon the first half of the Nationals’ season from 30,000 feet in the air, and you can’t find much of anything to gloat about. How can you try to put a positive spin on a worst-in-baseball 31-63 record, a roster filled with ineffective stopgaps and all kinds of uncertainty at every level of the organization?

You can’t.

Look at the last 3 1/2 months under a microscope, though, and you can find individual reasons for optimism, not to mention more than a few reasons for pessimism. The Nats as a whole are a disaster, but some of the parts are worth appreciating.

So as we take one last look back at what’s taken place so far in 2022 before turning our attention to what’s still to come after the All-Star break, let’s focus not on the big picture but a bunch of little pictures, both good and bad …

GOOD: JUAN SOTO’S PERFORMANCE
All that concern about Soto’s first-half struggles, his lack of power and his low batting average? Yeah, he’s going to be just fine, thank you very much. Back on June 17, he was batting .220, slugging .440 and owning an .807 OPS that would be really good for anyone else but not for his lofty standards. Then he began a streak of 26 consecutive games reaching base, best in his career, during which he has hit .338/.505/.663 with seven homers and 27 walks. That surge allowed the 23-year-old to enter the All-Star break with a .901 OPS. (And perhaps helped him win the Home Run Derby.)