Friday morning Nats Q&A

Good morning, everyone. We hoped this would be an eventful week, with the Winter Meetings offering an opportunity for news. And it was more eventful than any previous week this offseason, just not necessarily in a way anyone would have guessed.

Juan Soto signed with the Mets for an insane $765 million. The Nationals selected reliever Evan Reifert from the Rays in the Rule 5 Draft. Oh, and they won the Draft Lottery and surprisingly now hold the No. 1 pick next summer.

What they haven't done yet is sign any major league free agents or completed any trades. Hopefully that's on the horizon, sooner rather than later. In the meantime, we'll take another opportunity to answer your questions about what has - and what hasn't - happened so far.

If you've got something you'd like to ask, please submit it in the comments section below. Then check back throughout the morning for my responses ...

Cost of quality pitching continues to rise

Juan Soto stole the biggest headline at the now-completed Winter Meetings – and for $765 million, rightfully so – but the most significant broader storyline to develop out of Dallas might well have been the shape of the pitching market.

In short, it’s expensive. Really expensive.

While only a handful of top position players have signed so far this offseason, a good number of free agent starters have found new homes. And they’ve been paid handsomely for their services.

The real eye-opener so far was Max Fried, who parlayed the Yankees’ frustration at losing Soto to the Mets into a gargantuan, eight-year, $218 million contract. That shattered most predictions for the left-hander, who undoubtedly is one of the league’s better starters but has dealt with some injuries in recent years and isn’t a prototypical power pitcher.

Fried’s deal, which runs through his age-38 season, was the biggest one given to a pitcher so far this winter. But it’s not the only one that exceeded expectations.

Nationals acquire Rays reliever Reifert in Rule 5 Draft

Success in the Rule 5 Draft is never assured. It’s actually quite rare. The Nationals, though, were willing to take a shot on an unprotected prospect for the third straight year, hoping Evan Reifert bucks the trend and proves himself a valuable member of their pitching staff for years to come.

The Nats selected Reifert today in the final official event of the Winter Meetings in Dallas, using the No. 6 pick in the draft to snag the right-hander reliever away from the Rays.

Reifert, 25, has never pitched above Double-A, but he’s coming off a dominant 2024 season for Tampa Bay’s affiliate in Montgomery. In 34 appearances, he posted a sparkling 1.96 ERA and 0.919 WHIP, striking out 65 batters in only 41 1/3 innings.

Originally a 30th-round pick of the Rangers in 2018 from North Iowa Area Community College, Reifert chose not to sign with Texas and instead transferred to Central Missouri. He wasn’t selected in the pandemic-condensed 2020 draft, but signed with the Brewers and began his professional career.

After a strong 2021 season in Single-A ball, Reifert was traded to the Rays in a deal for big leaguer Mike Brosseau, then spent the last three seasons in Tampa Bay’s farm system. A shoulder injury derailed most of his 2023 campaign, but he returned strong this year at the Double-A level.

Orioles don't make selections in both phases of Rule 5 draft, six players lost in Triple-A portion

The Orioles completed another Winter Meetings without selecting a player in the major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.

It used to be tradition.

The club passed again with the 24th pick in the first round, extending its streak to two consecutive years. The Orioles had a stretch of 18 drafts in a row with a selection prior to the 2023 Winter Meetings.

The most recent choice was reliever Andrew Politi, who returned to the Red Sox as a late camp cut.

The Orioles lost their No. 8 prospect today to the Padres, right-hander Juan Nuñez, who hasn’t pitched above High-A ball and appeared in only seven games this summer due to a shoulder injury.

The big difference between this No. 1 pick and the previous two

When it was revealed Tuesday evening the Nationals had won the Draft Lottery, it was immediately appropriate to mention the two previous times this club held the No. 1 pick and the two iconic players who were selected with those picks.

Obviously, the Nats would be thrilled if the first player taken in the 2025 Draft has the same impact Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper did a decade and a half ago. But there’s a distinct difference to note about this future draft pick from those prior ones. The difference in the state of the franchise at the time of the pick.

When they drafted Strasburg on June 9, 2009, the Nationals were undoubtedly the worst team in baseball. They lost a league-worst 102 games in 2008, which is how they were awarded the No. 1 pick in the pre-lottery days. And on that night, they owned an abysmal 16-41 record, en route to a 103-loss season that would lock up the No. 1 pick again the following year.

It would be three more seasons before the Nats secured their first winning record, which also happened to come with their first division title and postseason berth. By then, the roster had been completely overhauled by still-newish general manager Mike Rizzo, who combined homegrown prospects with experienced veterans acquired via free agency and a few calculated additions via trade.

Strasburg and Harper were a huge part of that. Maybe the Nationals still would have made the 2012 playoffs without either young star, but there’s no way they would’ve won 98 games. And both continued to be critical to the organization’s success over the next several years, leading to three more division titles through the 2017 season.

Nationals win Draft Lottery, will hold No. 1 pick for third time

The Nationals nearly won Major League Baseball’s first Draft Lottery in 2022, finishing runner-up to the Pirates. They technically did win the 2023 lottery but were ineligible to hold the No. 1 pick, which wound up going instead to the Guardians.

There were no such restrictions this time around, just low odds. Which proved not to be a problem when the Nats were revealed the surprise winners of the 2024 lottery.

The grand prize: The No. 1 pick in next summer’s draft, the third time in club history they’ve held the first overall selection. The previous two players selected: Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and Bryce Harper in 2010, a couple of franchise icons.

Strasburg and Harper were drafted during some of the lowest points in the club’s two decades in D.C., immediately following 100-loss seasons. They were key figures in securing the team’s first winning record (and division title) in 2012. This No. 1 pick will join the organization three years into a roster rebuild that already has seen top prospects (Dylan Crews, James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore) reach the majors, with an eye on returning to contention as soon as 2025.

“We’ve got a good system in place right now. Getting the first pick is just going to add to that, and add value to our organization,” general manager Mike Rizzo told MLB Network shortly after learning the news at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. “We’re extremely excited. We’re lucky. And we don’t want to ever be in this position ever again.”

Nats set sights on power bat, Draft Lottery

The Nationals’ No. 1 need this offseason is no secret. They need a power bat, ideally at first base but potentially at another position if there’s a good match.

This team ranked last in the National League with 135 home runs. It ranked second-to-last in home runs by first basemen with 14. The only returning candidates to play that position are Juan Yepez and Andres Chaparro, who combined for 10 homers over 381 plate appearances.

If they want to put forth a more productive lineup next season, it’s the obvious upgrade that must occur this winter.

To date, they haven’t upgraded at first base. Nor have they upgraded at any position so far during an awfully quiet offseason. The good news: Nobody has.

Not a single free agent first baseman has signed anywhere yet. And the list includes a good number of prominent names just waiting to be courted and locked up.

Elias on search for pitching, decisions on Coulombe and Webb, Mateo's role and more

In executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias’ session earlier today with media at the Winter Meetings in Dallas, he provided an update on the search for starting pitching and a willingness to explore every option available.

Here are some quick hits.

* Surrendering a draft pick for a pitcher who rejected the qualifying offer isn’t a deal-breaker for the Orioles.

“We’re in on everybody,” Elias said. “We’re talking to everybody. When there’s aspects of the rules that create wrinkles, you’ve got to weigh them, so we do that. But there is no player that we’re not interested in or pursuing in some shape or fashion if we feel like the talent is additive to the current roster that we have."

* Elias is immersed in trade talks that also could remove major league talent from his roster.

Remaining items on Orioles' shopping list and Mateo's expanded role

The Orioles haven’t announced their agreements with outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sánchez, whose contracts become official after they pass their physicals. Two important items will crossed off the shopping list, with O’Neill replacing Anthony Santander in right and Sánchez replacing James McCann as the backup.

The position side appears to be completed unless there’s some late tinkering. It’s the pitching that remains a priority.

The rotation and bullpen are areas that lead to discussions with rival executives and agents. The Winter Meetings in Dallas are the latest setting for them.

“The whole offseason, what we’re trying to do is just improve our team anyway we can,” said assistant general manager Eve Rosenbaum. “We set out wanting to improve our offense, particularly with guys who can mash against left-handed pitchers, so that’s going to be a continued priority for us, bringing in some righty bats. And pitching I think is the other big area. We’ve been talking to a ton of pitchers so far this offseason — some who have signed already with other teams, some who haven’t signed yet. Looking at both starters and relievers.

“We expect Félix (Bautista) to be back, but he’s coming off Tommy John surgery, of course, so we want to make sure he has plenty of support in that bullpen if he can’t pitch as frequently as maybe we’re used to him pitching in the past. So definitely looking to do whatever we can to shore that up, whether that’s with internal options or externally. And then starting. I think it’s no secret that we have some guys who are down with Tommy John. Corbin Burnes has left. So we’re looking for at least one solid starter to bring in, because you can never have too much pitching, especially in this day and age.”

Soto heading to Queens, adding another challenge in NL East

Good morning, Nationals fans. For those of you who weren’t up late Sunday night and missed the news … Juan Soto is going to be a New York Met. For a very long time. For more money than any professional North American athlete has ever received.

Hours before the Winter Meetings officially commenced in Dallas, Soto and the Mets agreed to a 15-year, $765 million contract, per every prominent national baseball reporter on the planet. Yes, that’s 15 years and $765 million. That’s $51 million per year, on average, until he turns 41. It exceeds Shohei Ohtani’s previous record-setting $700 million deal with the Dodgers from last winter by a healthy margin.

And it brings Soto back to the National League East, making him the latest in a long line of former Nats greats to sign a massive new contract with a division rival.

Soto’s signing was going to sting for Nationals fans, no matter where he wound up. But it probably would have stung less had he chosen to stay with the Yankees, or instead bolted for another American League East franchise like the Red Sox or Blue Jays. The Mets, though? That’s a tough pill to swallow for many.

In the end, Steve Cohen proved once again he’s the major league owner more desperate to win a World Series than any other in the sport. The Mets haven’t hoisted the Commissioner’s Trophy since 1986. Only seven franchises are mired in longer championship droughts. Desperation (and tens of billions of dollars made in hedge fund management) is a powerful tool this time of year. It doesn’t guarantee success, but it drives an owner to dole out more than three-quarters of a billion dollars to one player in a sport where one player traditionally isn’t the difference between winning and losing.

Revisiting past Winter Meetings for Orioles

What can be expected of the Orioles this week?

Maybe the unexpected, like when they didn’t select a player in last year’s Rule 5 draft and made a huge splash by signing closer Craig Kimbrel to a $13 million contract for the 2024 season.

With the 24th pick in this year’s Rule 5, the Orioles most likely will pass again rather than try to carry a player for the entire season while also attempting to make a deep playoff run. Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias dropped some strong hints at last year’s Winter Meetings that the club wouldn’t participate in the major league phase unless players on their board surprisingly fell to them. He could do the same with media covering this year’s event, which is arguably the second-biggest for fans after spring training, and gathering daily in his suite.

Kimbrel’s signing ranks as one of the biggest stories in Orioles’ Winter Meetings history. His contract was the largest handed out in Nashville, much to the amusement of some club officials who didn’t realize it until later. They outspent the Dodgers and Yankees, who, of course, sped past them later.  

At least one minor league signing is typical, especially on the first day. Infielder John Lester and outfielder Nomar Mazara joined the organization as free agents on Dec. 6, 2022. The pandemic caused the cancellation of the 2020 in-person meetings, which were held virtually and included the Orioles claiming right-hander Ashton Goudeau on waivers from the Pirates.

More information on Heasley through a scout's eyes

The Orioles had 36 players on their 40-man roster when the Winter Meetings began in Nashville and they made two moves with the free-agent signing of closer Craig Kimbrel and trade with Kansas City for pitcher Jonathan Heasley.

Kimbrel is a veteran of 14 major league seasons and the Orioles are his eighth team. He’s a former Rookie of the Year and a nine-time All-Star. He’s an open book.

Heasley appeared in 36 games with the Royals over the past three seasons, used in relief 12 times in 2023 after his 24 starts in 2021-22. The Orioles announced the trade on Dec. 18, surrendering Dominican Summer League right-hander Cesar Espinal.

How Heasley would be used, how he was viewed, wasn’t included in the press release and must be ascertained later.

Having one minor league option had to increase his appeal with the organization. The bullpen needs the flexibility. And we’re assuming that he’s more likely to work in relief, though he could make the occasional start.

Haas eager to bring old and new together in scouting department

Danny Haas believes it happened in Battle Creek, Mich., in the late 1990s, when he was an 18th-round draft pick of the Red Sox playing outfield in low Single-A and Mike Rizzo (a Midwest scout for the Red Sox at the time) was in town looking at some of the organization’s higher-rated prospects.

“He was there with his son,” Haas recalls, “and I gave him some bats and balls.”

And what did Rizzo think of him as a ballplayer?

“I hope he thinks I’m a better scout than I was a player,” Haas said with a laugh.

Yes, he does. Rizzo doesn’t really remember much about Haas’ playing abilities. He does have an incredibly strong opinion of his evaluation skills, which is why he recently hired him to be the Nationals’ new vice president of amateur scouting.

Senzel can be more successful by sticking to one spot

The Nationals almost left the Winter Meetings at the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center in Nashville without a major league signing.

On Wednesday, the last official day of the meetings, they added infielder Nasim Nuñez through the Rule 5 Draft and signed first baseman/outfielder Juan Yepez to a minor league deal.

But in the wee hours of Thursday morning, before the Nationals braintrust left for the Nashville airport, they finally made one major addition by signing former Reds utilityman Nick Senzel to a $2 million contract that includes an extra $1 million in incentives.

Parallels have already been drawn from this signing to the addition of Dominic Smith last offseason.

They both were former first-round picks: Smith out of high school by the Mets in 2013 and Senzel out of the University of Tennessee by the Reds in 2016. Both were non-tendered by their respective clubs after not realizing their full potential and then signed with the Nats for $2 million with another year of club control.

Because You Asked - Disenchanted

The first post-Winter Meetings mailbag is here. It got lost at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center.

We sent out a search party and found it. Employees had wrapped it in lights and covered it with poinsettias. Families were posing with it for their holiday cards.

One intoxicated baseball fan tried to buy it a drink. Another took it for a boat ride below the Delta ballroom and tried to dump it like a mafia body.

You’re about to read the latest sequel to the beloved 2008 original. In all its glory.

I’ll admit to a little editing in this mailbag. I deleted a space between the last letter in a sentence and the punctuation mark.

Nuñez brings rare combination to Nats as Rule 5 draftee

Spend a few minutes listening to Nasim Nuñez talk over the phone, and you quickly realize the Nationals’ Rule 5 Draft pick doesn’t fit nicely into a traditional ballplayer persona.

He’s 23 years old, born in the Bronx but raised outside Atlanta, touted as an elite defensive shortstop and baserunner who hasn’t shown a consistent ability to hit as a professional but has shown the plate discipline of a far more experienced and accomplished hitter. Oh, and he was MVP of this summer’s All-Star Futures Game.

He’s clearly confident in himself, but he’s trying not to get too worked up about the opportunity the Nationals have suddenly presented him: To spend the entire 2024 season in the majors after producing an admittedly weak .627 OPS this year for the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate.

“It was bittersweet,” Nuñez said of learning the Nats had taken him in Wednesday’s Rule 5 Draft. “Coming up through the Marlins organization, I created so many bonds with my teammates, the coaches and even the medical staff and everybody else that was there. So it was kind of a wave of emotions, of not wanting to leave but knowing there’s an opportunity out there for me to pursue my dreams.”

This is not a player who should be big-league-ready, at least not as a hitter. But the Nationals were willing to take a shot at Nuñez, rated by one entity as Miami’s No. 6 prospect, believing they can use him enough off the bench as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement to justify keeping him on the roster all season.

Senzel signing seems to fit within Nats' stated plan for 2024

The Nationals’ first major league free agent signing feels a lot like one of their major league free agent signings from a year ago.

Nick Senzel might as well be Dominic Smith. Not necessarily in his playing profile, but certainly in his career situation.

Smith was a 27-year-old first baseman who was once a Mets first-round pick but was non-tendered after failing to live up to his full potential, ultimately signing with the Nats for $2 million plus another year of club control.

Senzel is a 28-year-old third baseman who was once a Reds first-round pick but was non-tendered after failing to live up to his full potential, ultimately signing with the Nats for $2 million plus another year of club control.

We all know how the Smith acquisition worked out. Though he played a smooth first base and was well-liked in the clubhouse, he didn’t hit nearly enough for his position and thus was cut loose after one season.

Looking back at Winter Meetings questions and how they're answered

Four days in Nashville for baseball’s Winter Meetings allowed media to gather and sometimes break news, like the app downloaded on phones to provide assistance in getting around the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center without taking a wrong turn every 30 seconds, slipping into panic mode and remembering that airport security confiscated my flare gun.

It was the most important discovery of the week. Bigger than the Juan Soto trade talks.

That place is the North Pole at Christmas if José Canseco bought it.

I boarded my flight on Sunday morning filled with questions, which I shared with readers, and wanted to check back for any resolutions. Don't stop me if you've heard these before.

Is there interest in Japanese right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa?

Soto's suddenly winding path now arrives in the Bronx

From almost the moment he first set foot in the Nationals clubhouse in May 2018, Juan Soto was asked from time to time whether he liked playing in Washington, whether he could see himself staying in Washington for many years, whether he ever thought about playing somewhere else like … oh, New York.

And Soto’s answer was always consistent.

“For me, this is the team I’ve been with since, what, 2015?” he said one morning standing in front of his locker, referencing the year he first signed with the organization as a teenager from Santo Domingo. “I’ve been with this team, and I feel good with it. When I get to know the city more, it feels great. Why should I need to change?”

Soto provided that particular answer on July 16, 2022. Two weeks later, he was traded to the Padres.

And now, remarkably, he has been traded again, this time to the Yankees.

Source: Nats sign Senzel after Candelario goes to Reds (updated)

The Winter Meetings officially ended Wednesday. The Nationals stuck around Nashville a bit longer and went home with their first major-league free agent signing of the offseason.

The Nats signed former Reds utilityman Nick Senzel for $2 million (plus $1 million in incentives) overnight, a source familiar with the deal confirmed. This came shortly after Cincinnati signed former Nats third baseman Jeimer Candelario for a reported three years and $45 million.

Senzel, 28, was non-tendered by the Reds last month after a second straight disappointing season, during which he batted .236/.297/.399 with 13 homers and 42 RBIs in 104 games. His defensive versatility, though, remains a strength.

Senzel has played center field, third base, second base, left field and right field during his five-year career. The Nationals could use help at several of those positions in the short-term, so it’s possible they’ll have him move around the field depending on their needs on any given day, though a club source said the initial intention is to play him primarily at third base as the organization waits for top prospect Brady House to reach the majors.

The second-overall pick in the 2016 Draft out of Tennessee, Senzel came to the Reds with high hopes of becoming a star. It didn’t happen. After a solid rookie season in 2019, he missed significant time in 2020 and 2021 with injuries, then struggled in both 2022 and 2023 after returning healthy.