Armchair general managers stayed busy in the early days of the offseason. Imagine how hectic it’s become with the free agent and trade markets wide open and the Winter Meetings approaching.

Your mistakes can’t cost you a job that you don’t actually have, which makes it a sweet gig.

I already posed five questions: whether you’d re-sign first baseman Jesús Aguilar, whether you’d pick up Jordan Lyles’ $11 million option (the Orioles didn’t), whether you’d trade an outfielder, whether you’d stay in-house for a backup catcher, and whether you’d attempt to re-sign Rougned Odor.

Here are two more:

Would you stay in-house for a shortstop?
Four of the top five free agents are shortstops, according to the MLBTradeRumors.com rankings – Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. The cheapest contract projection is Swanson’s seven-year, $154 million deal.

The fatigue that I keep blaming on tryptophan, which makes no sense because I use the excuse year-round, limits how much heavy lifting I can do in one day.

The mailbag isn’t a priority compared to daily workouts, but I decided to empty it this morning while it’s still relatively light.

While I don’t need relatives to assist me.

This is the holiday sequel to the beloved original. You ask, I answer, you ask again, I answer again. Why do I still feel the need to explain it? You get it by now.

Also, my mailbag is in charge of carving the turkey, while yours is stuck washing the dishes.

We noted the other day how the Nationals intend to pursue at least one starting pitcher this winter, trying to add some much-needed depth to what was baseball’s worst rotation this season. If that’s priority No. 1 over the next few months, priority No. 2 is the addition of a middle-of-the-order hitter.

Er, make that two middle-of-the-order hitters.

Last week’s decision to non-tender Luke Voit leaves the Nats with a couple of pretty big holes in the heart of their lineup. They already were going to need a corner outfielder after parting ways with Yadiel Hernandez. Now they’re going to need somebody to take Voit’s spot, whether that’s as designated hitter or first baseman.

Think of it this way: Between first base, left field and DH, the Nationals currently have one capable answer in Joey Meneses (who, it should be noted, is anything but a sure thing after only two months in the majors, no matter how impressive those two months were).

That’s two spots that need to be addressed, and there just don’t appear to be any viable in-house options, at least not anybody who could be trusted to play every day.

Though there’s been a bit of movement on the free agent market elsewhere, we’re still in the preliminary stages of the offseason around here. The Nationals have yet to add anybody to the fold, focusing instead on which players to add to their 40-man roster and which players to remove from the equation.

But now that they’ve completed those tasks, it’s fair to wonder when they’ll start moving onto free agency and addressing a handful of significant needs. (It’s also fair to wonder if they’ll be able to address any of those needs while the club is still for sale, but we’ve already raised that question and there’s not much more to say about that for now.)

So let’s proceed as if Mark Lerner has given Mike Rizzo the green light to spend some money this winter. Not gobs of money, but enough money to fill roster holes with actual free agents, not just bargain-basement pickups.

The Nationals have multiple needs. We’ll focus today on a particularly important one: starting pitching.

The 2022 rotation ranked dead-last in the majors in ERA (5.97) by a longshot, last in WHIP (1.563), last in walks per nine innings (3.76), last in strikeouts per walk (1.97), last in homers allowed (161). It’s hard to believe they finished with the majors’ worst record as well, isn’t it?

On a certain level, the Nationals’ decision Friday night not to tender a contract to Luke Voit made sense. They never coveted the 31-year-old in the first place. He was simply a player added to last summer’s haul of prospects in the Juan Soto-Josh Bell deal with the Padres because the Nats needed one actual big leaguer who could finish out the season with them.

Voit wasn’t going to be part of the Nats’ long-term plan, so why spend $8 million or so via arbitration to bring him back?

That’s all sound logic, except for the end result of all this: The Nationals now need to acquire two more bats this winter, and there’s a good chance it’ll cost them more than $8 million to find somebody at least as productive as Voit.

At this early stage of the offseason, we can probably safely name six of the projected nine members of the Opening Day 2023 lineup: Keibert Ruiz behind the plate, Joey Meneses at first base (or maybe left field), Luis García and CJ Abrams in the middle infield, Victor Robles in center field and Lane Thomas in right field.

Third base will be up for grabs, with Carter Kieboom attempting to return from Tommy John surgery, Ildemaro Vargas returning after a surprisingly productive couple of months to end the season and Jake Alu now on the 40-man roster after putting up some shockingly good numbers at Triple-A Rochester.

With the Orioles in the market for starting pitching and possibly poised to add one or more hurlers from the free agent ranks, today we’ll take a look at two more possibilities.

To be clear, these are just some stats and notes on these pitchers and not my speculation - or anyone’s, for that matter - in terms of the Orioles' interest level in these pitchers. As you know, they keep such information very close to the vest.

MLBTradeRumors.com has ranked nine pitchers among its top 20 free agents for this winter. Here they are, listed by the ranking and also the projected contract for each.

* No. 6 lefty Carlos Rodón – five years, $140 million

* No. 7 right-hander Jacob deGrom – three years, $135 million

The first full week of the official offseason is complete, and with that, the deadline for teams to negotiate with their respective free agents has passed.

Thursday was the last day the Nationals had exclusive rights to re-sign any of their free agents before they became available to speak with other teams. Of their eight free agents, the Nats had already made decisions on two of them.

On Sunday, the day after the conclusion of the World Series, the Nats announced they had agreed to terms with Sean Doolittle on a minor league deal that includes an invitation to major league spring training. A couple of hours later, the team also announced they declined the $16 million mutual option for 2023 on Nelson Cruz’s contract, instead buying out the 42-year-old designated hitter for $3 million.

Both moves made sense.

Doolittle has a long history with the team, showed flashes of returning to his previous form in limited action this year (5 ⅓ scoreless innings over six games) and has been recovering from his internal brace procedure. The expectation is that he’ll be ready to go when pitchers and catchers report to West Palm Beach in mid-February.

The launching of true free agency last week, with executives allowed to begin negotiations with representatives of players outside the organization, also ignited the annual offseason predictions, speculation and rumors that spread like weeds.

The baseball media’s popular board game, matching player with team. A low-risk roll of the dice.

The Athletic tabbed the Orioles as a best fit for seven of the top 10 free agents – Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Rodón and Kodai Senga. Forget the cost. The club is seeking a top-of-the-rotation starter and a big-time run producer, so that qualifies as a “fit.”

But we can’t ignore the cost.

Does deGrom work for the Orioles at a projected two-year deal worth $90 million and including an opt-out clause after the first season? Or Verlander at three years and $135 million, Correa at 10 years and $327 million, Turner at eight years and $264 million, Bogaerts at seven years and $196 million, Rodón at five years and $144 million, and Senga at three years and $72 million?

For nearly a decade, the Nationals had one of the most successful and competitive rosters in baseball. They also had one of the most expensive rosters in the sport.

Each year from 2013-2021, the Nats finished with a payroll that ranked in the top 10 in the majors. Twice, they exceeded Major League Baseball’s luxury tax threshold, all in an attempt to finally win big in October.

That’s not the case anymore, and it probably won’t be the case again for a while.

After tearing down much of their roster during the 2021 season, the Nationals entered this season with a $135.4 million payroll that ranked 17th in the majors. Final figures haven’t been tabulated yet, but that ranking certainly went down by season’s end after Juan Soto and Josh Bell were traded to the Padres.

All of which leaves the franchise with as little commitment to player salaries heading into an offseason as has been the case in a long time.

The Nationals are bringing back Sean Doolittle in 2023, re-signing the popular, rehabbing reliever only hours after he officially became a free agent.

Doolittle, who appeared in only five games last season before suffering a major elbow injury, agreed to terms on a minor league contract that includes an invitation to big league camp next spring. He’ll attempt to prove he’s healthy again and make the opening day bullpen.

The 36-year-old left-hander rejoined the Nationals on a $1.5 million major league contract this spring after spending 2021 with the Reds and Mariners. He immediately looked like the best version of himself from his first stint with the organization (2017-20), tossing 5 1/3 scoreless innings during the season’s first two weeks, not even allowing a batter to reach base until his sixth appearance.

But Doolittle experienced left elbow pain after that and landed on the 10-day injured list with a sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament. He was transferred to the 60-day IL a few weeks later but was hopeful he’d be able to return to pitch sometime during the season.

That didn’t happen. When the elbow pain returned as he attempted to start throwing off a mound again, Doolittle had to be shut down and make a decision. Ultimately, he opted to undergo an internal brace procedure that is less invasive than Tommy John surgery and typically allows a pitcher to return in about half the time it takes to rehab from a full ligament replacement.

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The Baltimore Orioles are in uncharted territory. 

When Mike Elias was hired in November 2018, the Orioles were in full rebuild mode. The O’s had already parted ways with Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Zack Britton, Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day.

Offseasons under Elias have been approached in similar ways: Sign low-cost veterans that can help the team in the short-term and hope they can be flipped for prospects at the deadline. That approach, among other things, led to the organization’s No. 1 farm system ranking, and allowed the Orioles to find diamonds in the rough through waiver claims, trades and small-money signings. 

Elias’ patient approach culminated in a 2022 season in which the Orioles vastly out-performed expectations, racking up 83 wins and finishing just three games out of the final American League Wild Card spot.