Once-productive Smith is worth the gamble for Nats (updated)

In compiling a list Tuesday morning of remaining free agents the Nationals might have been looking at to play left field for them, we failed to mention the guy they actually agreed to a deal with later in the day.

Sorry, MLB Trade Rumors’ free agent page had Dominic Smith listed among the first basemen, not the left fielders.

It remains to be seen exactly how Davey Martinez intends to use Smith, who sources confirmed agreed to a one-year, $2 million deal with an additional $2 million possible in incentives. But MLB Trade Rumors’ decision to categorize him only as a first baseman might shed some important light into the matter.

Though he has played nearly the same number of games in left field (182) as first base (187) in his major league career, Smith has been considerably better at the latter position. He’s totaled minus-3 Defensive Runs Saved at first base, compared to minus-11 in left field.

It’s more instructive to look at Smith’s minor league career, where he spent the overwhelming majority of his time at first base (565 games), not in left field (22 games).

Source: Nats signing former Met Dominic Smith

The Nationals’ search for a left-handed bat has landed on a familiar face from the National League East: Dominic Smith.

The Nats have agreed to terms on a one-year deal with the former Mets first baseman and outfielder, guaranteeing him $2 million plus incentives, a source familiar with the terms confirmed.

Smith, 27, had been a member of the Mets since 2017, producing a .246/.308/.424 slash line with 46 homers, 179 RBIs and a .733 OPS over 447 total games. He was non-tendered in November, though, after a rough 2022 season that saw him bat only .194 with zero homers over 152 plate appearances.

USA Today was first to report the signing.

The Nationals had been searching for an affordable, left-handed bat to fill a much-needed hole in their lineup, and Smith certainly fits that bill. It remains to be seen where he’s used in the field, but he could either start in left field, at first base (bumping Joey Meneses to the outfield), serve as designated hitter or be the left-handed portion of a platoon at any of those positions, depending on what manager Davey Martinez needs on a given night.

Next on Nats' shopping list: left fielder

After most teams closed down shop over the holidays, the Hot Stove League should re-commence this week, as teams try to address the remaining holes on their rosters in advance of spring training. (Which begins in only six weeks!)

Most of the top free agents already signed last month, but there is a swath of unsigned major leaguers still out there. And that could play to the Nationals’ advantage.

We knew the Nats weren’t going to be in on any prominent (i.e. expensive) free agents, but they have needed to make at least a few affordable additions this winter. And after addressing third base (Jeimer Candelario) and No. 5 starter (Trevor Williams), the clear top remaining need is in left field.

As we’ve mentioned before, the depth chart in left field currently begins with Alex Call and Stone Garrett. And with all due respect to those guys, it’s just not realistic to think the Nationals would open the season with those two and nobody else at the position.

So the time should be coming soon when Mike Rizzo strikes a deal with somebody more experienced. And there are a decent number of potential candidates out there.

Looking at a few more available free agent pitchers

If the Orioles are going to add a pitcher they can slot at or near the top of their rotation, they are probably going to have to go the trade route at this point and potentially part with one or more of their top 30 prospects. But if they want to add a pitcher that can slot in the middle or back end of their rotation, they could still look to sign a remaining free agent.

Here are a few possibles.

Righty Zach Davies: In the 2011 MLB Draft, the Orioles selected a kid pitcher out of a high school in Arizona named Zach Davies. They picked him in round 26 and yet he signed for a big overslot bonus of $575,000.

Then-scouting director Joe Jordan knew the kid didn’t throw very hard but was wiser than his years in knowing how to attack hitters, and he had a strong changeup.

Davies has turned those traits into a decent big league career, and if the Orioles seek a reunion years later, they could have one. On July 31, 2015, the O’s traded Davies, then pitching to a 2.84 ERA at Triple-A Norfolk, to Milwaukee for outfielder Gerardo Parra. That one did not work out. At the time of the deal Parra had an .886 OPS for the Brewers, but that number dropped all the way to .625 with the Orioles. At the end of the year he signed with Colorado.

More questions about the rotation, Lowther and margins

I’d have a bunch of non-sports questions if I were flying for the holidays.

“Why is this line so long? Why isn’t it moving? Where are my bags? Where am I supposed to sleep?”

"Do I dare try the sushi?"

Here are a few more relating to the Orioles:

Which free agent starting pitcher could sign with the Orioles?
Rich Hill is off the board after agreeing to a one-year, $8 million contract with the Pirates.

Source: Ramirez close to returning on one-year deal

The Nationals are close to finalizing a deal to bring Erasmo Ramirez back for the 2023 season, re-signing an invaluable member of this season’s pitching staff.

There remain a few more details to sort out before the deal is announced, including the removal of someone else from the club’s 40-man roster to open a slot, but a source confirmed the two sides are close and it should be finalized within a few days. The one-year contract would pay Ramirez as much as $2 million if he meets all incentives, according to The New York Post’s Jon Heyman.

Of the Nationals players who became free agents at season’s end, Ramirez looked the most likely to return, given his importance to the pitching staff and modest contract demands. It took a few months, but the sides appear on the verge of a deal that should be a boost to an already deep bullpen.

Though his work was often unheralded, Ramirez was a critical part of the Nats pitching staff this season, a jack of all trades who finished with a 2.92 ERA and 1.077 WHIP over a hefty 86 1/3 innings. He was one of only three major league relievers – along with the Rangers’ Brock Burke and the Angels’ Jaime Barria – to post an ERA under 3.00 while pitching at least 75 innings.

Originally signed to a minor league deal, Ramirez didn’t make the Opening Day roster. The Nationals called up the 32-year-old from Triple-A Rochester only two weeks into the season, though, and he never went back.

Thanks to reliable sources, Williams excited to join young Nats

It’s a bit unusual for a seven-year veteran to depart a playoff team and sign a multi-year deal with a rebuilding organization.

But that’s exactly what Trevor Williams did when he agreed to a two-year, $13 million deal with the Nationals over the weekend after spending the last two seasons with the Mets.

Although he was left off the Mets roster for the Wild Card Series against the Padres, the 30-year-old got his first taste of a pennant race this year and was expected to be included on the Division Series roster had New York advanced.

Now he’s coming to D.C., where the Nats are coming off their third straight last-place finish in the National League East. But the right-hander understands the situation and is comfortable committing to the Nats for two years.

With such a young team in a rebuilding phase, Williams doesn’t know too many current Nationals. He had only just met manager Davey Martinez over the phone earlier this week. But he is familiar with Josh Bell, who was Williams’ teammate for five years in Pittsburgh and spent the last 1 ½ seasons in Washington, and Craig Stammen, the former Nationals draft pick who spent the first seven years of his big league career in D.C. and knows Williams from playing for his hometown Padres over the last six years.

The free agent pitcher market continues to dwindle

It’s not even Christmas and the shelves are not nearly as stocked as they were not long ago. And no, we are not talking about a run on a popular kid’s toy, but free agent starting pitchers.

They went fast. Of the top nine pitchers, as ranked among the top 50 free agents by MLBTradeRumors.com, just one remains. And that is one of the biggest fish in lefty Carlos Rodón, rated as the No. 6 overall free agent, but tops among the pitchers.

Where does that leave the Orioles? Well, with a much smaller pool of decent hurlers to pick from and try to sign. Barring a shocker with Rodón. 

Righty Noah Syndergaard is still out there for now. Over a seven-year career he has gone 57-41 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.176 WHIP. That is a 116 ERA+.

After rejecting the Mets' qualifying offer after the 2021 season, Syndergaard signed a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels for $21 million. But then they traded him to Philadelphia on Aug. 2 at the trade deadline.

Williams grateful for chance to start full-time for Nats

On the heels of what he termed a “unique year” with the Mets, Trevor Williams knew different teams would look at him in different ways this winter.

Having had success as a swingman in New York, bouncing back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen for a club that made the postseason, the 30-year-old right-hander might appeal to other organizations who value that kind of versatility.

Williams, though, still believed he could be an effective full-time starter, returning to the role he held with the Pirates from 2017-20. And the opportunity to return to that role shaped his approach to free agency, which ultimately landed him in Washington.

“It was a decision for my career: Do I want to follow down that path? Do I want to be a swing guy for the rest of my career? Or do I want to prove again that I can be a serviceable starter?” he said Monday during an introductory Zoom conference with Nationals reporters. “And because I’ve shown both in the past, I preferred starting.”

It appears the Nationals will meet his preference. Williams, who agreed a two-year, $13 million deal Friday, said he was told he’ll be a member of the rotation in 2023.

Source: Nats sign pitcher Trevor Williams to two-year deal

The Nationals have agreed to terms with right-hander Trevor Williams on a two-year deal, according to a source familiar with the terms, landing a veteran pitcher who could either fill a slot in their rotation or bullpen.

Williams' deal is for $13 million over the two years, according to The Athletic. He earned $3.9 million this season as a member of the Mets staff.

The 30-year-old posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.227 WHIP across 89 2/3 innings for the Mets, starting nine games with 21 more appearances out of the bullpen, most of them covering multiple innings.

Once New York’s star-studded rotation was healthy by midseason, Williams mostly pitched in long relief down the stretch. He closed out the season Oct. 5 with six innings of two-run ball against the Nationals, earning the win. The Mets left him off their roster for their National League Wild Card Series against the Padres because they didn’t need as many pitchers in a best-of-three series, but they likely would’ve added him back had they advanced to the best-of-five NL Division Series.

Williams would appear for now to be the leading candidate to open the season as the Nationals’ No. 5 starter behind MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Josiah Gray and Patrick Corbin, though that’s hardly written in stone. They could continue to pursue other available free agents and have the versatile righty pitch in relief instead.

Orioles prepared to leave Winter Meetings with roster moves pending

SAN DIEGO – The Orioles will return home from the Winter Meetings on Thursday satisfied with the advancements made in trying to improve their roster. To find another starting pitcher and some left-handed bats.

They just won’t have the bodies to show for it unless something breaks soon.

“I don’t know that we’re any closer to any acquisitions than we were at this time last night or this morning, but a lot of info’s come in, a lot of conversations have taken place,” Elias said during his last media session inside his suite at the Manchester Grand Hyatt.

“We still have a great deal of players out there. This is just really the beginning of the offseason. Whether or not something comes together in the next day or two, I think there’s a lot of information to claim here today.”

Elias said he views these meetings as more of “an information gathering event, first and foremost.” But if there’s an opportunity to make a move for a player, “we’ll get into that competition.” That’s how the Orioles reached an agreement Saturday with starter Kyle Gibson, becoming more aggressive before boarding a flight to San Diego and more bidders began to surface.

Winter Meetings Day 3: Rule 5 draft, Judge returns to Yankees (Nats select Ward)

It’s hard to believe, but we’re already at the last full day of the Winter Meetings. The Rule 5 draft is the last event of the week and marks the end of baseball’s biggest offseason gathering.

In years past, the Rule 5 draft has been held on the Thursday morning of the Winter Meetings. But they bumped it up to Wednesday afternoon this year, meaning there probably won’t be a whole lot of commotion tomorrow morning before everyone leaves for the airport.

The Nationals are expected to make their first pick in the Rule 5 draft in 12 years with the No. 1 overall pick later today. Thanks to a decade of success, they didn’t feel the need to use a spot on their active roster on a fringe major league player.

Mark Zuckerman had a preview of the Rule 5 draft this morning and check back for the selection later today.

Elsewhere in the baseball world, the big news earlier this morning was Aaron Judge agreeing to return to the Yankees on a nine-year, $360 million deal, multiple outlets confirmed.

Winter Meetings Day 2: Nats have shot at No. 1 pick in Draft (lottery update)

These Winter Meetings got off to a fast start yesterday with Trea Turner agreeing to an 11-year, $300 million deal with the Phillies and Justin Verlander agreeing to a two-year, $86 million deal with the Mets.

The Nationals will definitely feel the ramifications of two division rivals signing two of the biggest free agents on the market. And although general manager Mike Rizzo isn’t expected to dish out large contracts to other top free agents like Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Rodón and Dansby Swanson, that doesn’t mean this week will be uneventful for the Nats.

Today is the first of two major events for the Nationals this week in San Diego, with the first-ever MLB Draft lottery taking place at 8:30 p.m. ET.

After a 55-107 record this year, the Nats are one of three teams with the highest odds to land the No. 1 overall pick. Along with the Athletics (60-102) and Pirates (62-100), the Nationals have a 16.5 percent chance at the top selection in next year’s draft.

The first six spots in the draft will be determined by the lottery. All 18 non-playoff teams are eligible for the lottery, with declining percentages in reverse order of their records, down to a 0.23 percent chance at scoring the top pick. After that, picks 7-18 will be determined in reverse order of standings. So the lowest the Nats can pick is No. 7 overall, which, at 19 percent, they have a better chance of getting than the No. 1 pick.

Winter Meetings Day 1: Turner to Phils, Verlander to Mets

For the first time since 2019 in San Diego, the baseball Winter Meetings are full-go in person. And the biggest event of the offseason just so happens to be back in San Diego at the Manchester Grand Hyatt.

It’s barely the afternoon on the West Coast and there has already been major news breaking on the free agent market. Two of the top available free agents this winter have reportedly agreed to terms on new deals. And both are with National League East teams outside of D.C.

The biggest contract handed out so far this offseason is sure to be heartbreaking for Nats fans to see. Trea Turner has reportedly agreed to an 11-year, $300 million deal with the Phillies. The deal also reportedly includes a full no-trade clause, which will keep the shortstop in Philadelphia through the 2033 season.

ESPN was the first to report the Turner deal.

Turner, who played for the Nationals from 2015 until he was traded with Max Scherzer to the Dodgers at the 2021 deadline, reunites with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and hitting coach Kevin Long as former Nats in Philly.

Looking at the Winter Meetings agenda in San Diego

The Winter Meetings are back to normal after going virtual in 2020 and disappearing in 2021.

Media can storm the Manchester Grand Hyatt in San Diego, clog the lobby and wait in long lines for its morning coffee.

I’d expect the largest wave of reporters to arrive later today. Some team executives will wait until Monday morning. And then, it’s on.

The Orioles will be linked to pretty much everyone, based on the vow to be more aggressive this winter and to increase payroll - the lobby buzz will be deafening - but much of that money is set aside for arbitration raises. They’re at the stage of the rebuild to begin spending more in free agency and to inherit heftier contracts, but I’ll repeat that they aren’t in hot pursuit of the big four shortstops. I'll also stand by my earlier take that they aren't being super aggressive with the top-tier starting pitchers, as if primed to break the bank and leave everyone else wounded from lesser bids, but I'll happily pivot if they do.

Checking in with representatives isn't the same thing. That's happening a lot, at every tier, because it's the responsible thing to do. And they obviously like left-hander Carlos Rodón, but so do teams like the Mets and Yankees who live in a different financial neighborhood.

Waiting for a big free agent signing and remembering a Hall of Famer

Considering he has had more than a few good days over the years at the Orioles expense, it’s pretty easy to guess where most O’s fans would like to see Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge playing next year. That is anywhere but the Bronx. San Francisco could be nice that time of year.

With the Winter Meetings now just a few days away, Judge, the No. 1 ranked free agent, is still available. While it is possible he signs somewhere that is not New York or San Francisco (the Dodgers could be involved), there have been almost no reporting from major outlets indicating we are going to get a surprise here. But it wouldn’t be the first time.

Last year, Judge recorded his best season yet, setting the American League record for homers with 62. He posted a career-best OPS at 1.111, which produced an OPS+ of 211. He led the majors in runs (133), home runs, RBIs (131), on-base percentage (.425), slugging percentage (.686) and total bases (391) this past season.

Judge of course picked a great time to have his career year. His MVP 2022 season produced a 207 wRC+ that stands as the best offensive season in recent history. Barry Bonds was the last player to match or exceed that level, and prior to him, no qualified hitter had done so since Ted Williams in 1957.

Judge has 35 homers in 87 career games versus the Orioles with a career .310 batting average and 1.133 OPS against Baltimore pitchers. That is his most homers against any team and that OPS tops all against teams he has played 25 or more games against. He has hit 19 career homers at Camden Yards, his most at any park outside Yankee Stadium and by a big margin with his 12 homers at Rogers Centre in Toronto next. His career OPS at Oriole Park is 1.154.

Will O's rumor mill heat up with arrival of Winter Meetings?

As some free agent signings are starting to trickle in, we are now just days away from the Winter Meetings in San Diego. The rumors will certainly heat up there, even if the action doesn’t.

As it relates to the Orioles, here is what we do know: not very much.

I think they prefer it that way. Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias likes to play it close to the vest, as we know. That is not likely to change anytime soon. He doesn’t see any advantage in letting information leak out. And at a time when social media will spread almost any rumor rapidly with little accountability, all is mostly quiet about the Orioles.

There is no reason to jump to the conclusion that that means the Orioles will have a quiet winter. That seems very, very unlikely. In fact, Elias himself has said the payroll will increase and additions will be sought both for the rotation and the batting order. We are all waiting to find out what that means, exactly, and how much the payroll will increase and in what ways.

Elias has said numerous times now that the playoffs are the goal for 2023, and he didn’t make such a proclamation previously since joining the Orioles. The club has reached the point of producing a winning season, notching 83 wins in 2022, and now the chase is on to add to that and to be playing in the postseason next October.

How Tuesday's additions fit into Nats' winter plans

The additions of Jeimer Candelario and Stone Garrett aren’t going to dramatically alter the Nationals’ 2023 lineup. The two players, signed as free agents Tuesday, aren’t big enough bats to turn one of the majors’ least-productive batting orders into one of the sport’s best.

What the signings do provide the Nats, though, are depth and options for manager Davey Martinez, especially in the case of Candelario.

The 29-year-old switch-hitter, non-tendered by the Tigers two weeks ago, is coming off a rough season in which he hit a weak .217 with 19 doubles, 13 homers, 50 RBIs and a .633 OPS. That’s roughly comparable to what the Nationals got from all of their third basemen in 2022: a .237 average, 26 doubles, 12 homers, 64 RBIs and a .613 OPS.

If the Nats get the 2022 version of Candelario, they will have wasted $5 million. If, however, they get anything resembling the 2020-21 versions of him, they’ll get a significant upgrade, not to mention a guy who doesn’t have to play exclusively at third base.

In those two previous seasons, Candelario hit .278 with a .356 on-base percentage, .458 slugging percentage and .814 OPS. On a 162-game basis – you have to do this to account for the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign – he averaged 43 doubles, 19 homers and 77 RBIs. Do you think the Nats would take that? Uh, yeah.

Candelario adds more versatility to Nats roster

This offseason is already a nice change of pace from the previous two winters. It’s not even December yet and the hot stove is already heating up.

The Nationals made their first major league signings yesterday, announcing a one-year deal with veteran third baseman Jeimer Candelario and a major league deal with outfielder Stone Garrett. Both will compete for starting spots come spring training.

The Tigers non-tendered the 29-year-old, switch-hitting Candelario at the deadline a few weeks ago after a disappointing 2022 season in which he hit only .217 with a .633 OPS and -0.1 WAR by FanGraphs' reckoning.

But Candelario has a longer track record of success, particularly in the 2018, 2020 and 2021 seasons. He tied for the major league lead with 42 doubles and produced 3.9 WAR two seasons ago and hit a career-high 19 home runs to go along with 2.2 WAR in 2018, his first full season in Detroit.

Assuming he reverts back to a former version of himself, Candelario should be a solid pickup for this rebuilding Nats team. He brings seven years of major league experience and will reportedly make a $5 million base salary in 2023, with another $1 million in incentives. He was projected to make $7 million in arbitration before being non-tendered, per MLB Trade Rumors, so he’s coming at a low cost.

Nats sign third baseman Candelario, outfielder Garrett (updated)

The Nationals made their first major league acquisitions of the offseason today, signing free agent Jeimer Candelario to a one-year deal to add an experienced third baseman coming off a rough season to a lineup that needs plenty of added production, then signing power-hitting outfielder Stone Garrett to a major league deal.

Candelario contract guarantees the 29-year-old a $5 million salary, with another $1 million available in incentives, according to the New York Post's Jon Heyman. Garrett, who appeared in 27 games for the Diamondbacks after making his major league debut this summer, gets a league minimum deal but is under the club's control for six years.

A switch-hitter originally signed by the Cubs in 2010 as an amateur free agent, Candelario went to the Tigers in a July 2017 trade deadline deal that sent veterans Alex Avila and Justin Wilson to Chicago. Over the ensuing six seasons, he hit .243 with 124 doubles, 65 homers, 245 RBIs and a .728 OPS.

Candelario peaked during the 2020-21 seasons, posting a combined slash line of .278/.356/.458 for a well-above-average OPS-plus of 125. He tied for the major league lead with 42 doubles to go along with 16 homers in 2021 and finished that season with 3.8 bWAR.

Candelario’s production dropped significantly this season, though. In 124 games, he batted just .217/.272/.361 with 19 doubles, 13 homers and 50 RBIs, his bWAR plummeting to 0.6. Entering his final year of arbitration and due to earn a raise from his $5.8 million salary, the Tigers chose not to tender him a contract at the Nov. 18 deadline, making him a free agent.