The big difference between this No. 1 pick and the previous two

When it was revealed Tuesday evening the Nationals had won the Draft Lottery, it was immediately appropriate to mention the two previous times this club held the No. 1 pick and the two iconic players who were selected with those picks.

Obviously, the Nats would be thrilled if the first player taken in the 2025 Draft has the same impact Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper did a decade and a half ago. But there’s a distinct difference to note about this future draft pick from those prior ones. The difference in the state of the franchise at the time of the pick.

When they drafted Strasburg on June 9, 2009, the Nationals were undoubtedly the worst team in baseball. They lost a league-worst 102 games in 2008, which is how they were awarded the No. 1 pick in the pre-lottery days. And on that night, they owned an abysmal 16-41 record, en route to a 103-loss season that would lock up the No. 1 pick again the following year.

It would be three more seasons before the Nats secured their first winning record, which also happened to come with their first division title and postseason berth. By then, the roster had been completely overhauled by still-newish general manager Mike Rizzo, who combined homegrown prospects with experienced veterans acquired via free agency and a few calculated additions via trade.

Strasburg and Harper were a huge part of that. Maybe the Nationals still would have made the 2012 playoffs without either young star, but there’s no way they would’ve won 98 games. And both continued to be critical to the organization’s success over the next several years, leading to three more division titles through the 2017 season.

Nationals win Draft Lottery, will hold No. 1 pick for third time

The Nationals nearly won Major League Baseball’s first Draft Lottery in 2022, finishing runner-up to the Pirates. They technically did win the 2023 lottery but were ineligible to hold the No. 1 pick, which wound up going instead to the Guardians.

There were no such restrictions this time around, just low odds. Which proved not to be a problem when the Nats were revealed the surprise winners of the 2024 lottery.

The grand prize: The No. 1 pick in next summer’s draft, the third time in club history they’ve held the first overall selection. The previous two players selected: Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and Bryce Harper in 2010, a couple of franchise icons.

Strasburg and Harper were drafted during some of the lowest points in the club’s two decades in D.C., immediately following 100-loss seasons. They were key figures in securing the team’s first winning record (and division title) in 2012. This No. 1 pick will join the organization three years into a roster rebuild that already has seen top prospects (Dylan Crews, James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore) reach the majors, with an eye on returning to contention as soon as 2025.

“We’ve got a good system in place right now. Getting the first pick is just going to add to that, and add value to our organization,” general manager Mike Rizzo told MLB Network shortly after learning the news at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. “We’re extremely excited. We’re lucky. And we don’t want to ever be in this position ever again.”

Nats set sights on power bat, Draft Lottery

The Nationals’ No. 1 need this offseason is no secret. They need a power bat, ideally at first base but potentially at another position if there’s a good match.

This team ranked last in the National League with 135 home runs. It ranked second-to-last in home runs by first basemen with 14. The only returning candidates to play that position are Juan Yepez and Andres Chaparro, who combined for 10 homers over 381 plate appearances.

If they want to put forth a more productive lineup next season, it’s the obvious upgrade that must occur this winter.

To date, they haven’t upgraded at first base. Nor have they upgraded at any position so far during an awfully quiet offseason. The good news: Nobody has.

Not a single free agent first baseman has signed anywhere yet. And the list includes a good number of prominent names just waiting to be courted and locked up.

Nats, as expected, get No. 10 pick in 2024 Draft (updated)

NASHVILLE – One year ago, Mike Rizzo sat on a makeshift TV set in San Diego and legitimately sweated out the final moments of the brand-new MLB Draft Lottery, in the end accepting the No. 2 pick after the Pirates won the No. 1 choice.

The tension wasn’t nearly as thick tonight for this year’s lottery. Rizzo wasn’t even in the room when the Nationals, who went into the event knowing they couldn’t pick any better than 10th, found out that’s exactly where they’ll pick next summer.

Despite finishing with the league’s fifth-worst record at 71-91, the Nats were ineligible for the lottery thanks to its convoluted rules.

The lottery fine print states that any team that pays (as opposed to receives) revenue sharing dollars cannot be selected in consecutive draft lotteries. So that knocked the Nationals out of the mix for a top-nine pick this year, and all but guaranteed they’d land the No. 10 pick. Their only other potential outcome would’ve been a drop to No. 11, something that only could’ve happened if all four teams that had a worse record in 2023 (the Athletics, Royals, Rockies and White Sox) lost the lottery.

That didn’t happen. Even though the Guardians and Reds surprisingly snagged the top two picks despite low odds, the Rockies, A’s, White Sox and Royals checked in with the third through sixth picks, locking the Nats in at No. 10.

Orioles pick 17th in draft, Elias trying to strike another deal before leaving San Diego

SAN DIEGO – The new draft lottery couldn’t budge the Orioles from the 17th spot.

Their 0.4 percent odds of receiving the first-overall pick proved to be accurate, with no amount of ping pong balls able to influence it. The Brewers remained 18th, also where they started the day.

The Orioles haven’t drafted outside the top five since taking high school pitcher Grayson Rodriguez 11th overall in 2018. They haven’t been pushed back this far since choosing prep left-hander DL Hall 21st overall in 2017.

The lottery system was approved in the new collective bargaining agreement for the 18 teams that missed the playoffs.

The Pirates were the big winners tonight – a rare distinction for the franchise - by receiving the first pick, followed by the Nationals, Tigers, Rangers, Twins, Athletics, Reds, Royals, Rockies, Marlins, Angels, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Red Sox, White Sox, Giants, Orioles and Brewers.

Winter Meetings Day 2: Nats have shot at No. 1 pick in Draft (lottery update)

These Winter Meetings got off to a fast start yesterday with Trea Turner agreeing to an 11-year, $300 million deal with the Phillies and Justin Verlander agreeing to a two-year, $86 million deal with the Mets.

The Nationals will definitely feel the ramifications of two division rivals signing two of the biggest free agents on the market. And although general manager Mike Rizzo isn’t expected to dish out large contracts to other top free agents like Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Rodón and Dansby Swanson, that doesn’t mean this week will be uneventful for the Nats.

Today is the first of two major events for the Nationals this week in San Diego, with the first-ever MLB Draft lottery taking place at 8:30 p.m. ET.

After a 55-107 record this year, the Nats are one of three teams with the highest odds to land the No. 1 overall pick. Along with the Athletics (60-102) and Pirates (62-100), the Nationals have a 16.5 percent chance at the top selection in next year’s draft.

The first six spots in the draft will be determined by the lottery. All 18 non-playoff teams are eligible for the lottery, with declining percentages in reverse order of their records, down to a 0.23 percent chance at scoring the top pick. After that, picks 7-18 will be determined in reverse order of standings. So the lowest the Nats can pick is No. 7 overall, which, at 19 percent, they have a better chance of getting than the No. 1 pick.