pecota - Blog

Notes on health and safety, PECOTA, Renato NÃºÃ±ez and more

February 09, 2021, 12:12pm

Steve Melewski

Orioles

Notes on health and safety, PECOTA, Renato NÃºÃ±ez and more

We now know some of the rules that will govern the 2021 Major League Baseball season. MLB and the MLB Players Association announced the health and safety protocols that will be in place starting when spring training begins next week. By the way, as a reminder, O's pitchers and catchers report Tuesday, Feb. 16 with the first workout set for the next day. The first full-squad workout in Sarasota is Feb. 22. Some things that were agreed on include: * Doubleheaders will feature two seven-inning...

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Week in review: Harsh words exchanged, free agent batters and more

February 10, 2018, 1:21pm

Steve Melewski

Orioles

Week in review: Harsh words exchanged, free agent batters and more

In looking back on the last week of stories here and revisting a few, we spent some time discussing the harsh words exchanged recently by the players and owners, looked at some lefty-batting free agents and also looked at the latest PECOTA projections. On Monday, we discussed some recent statements issued, including one by the Major League Baseball Players Assocation and one by prominent agent Brodie Van Wagenen. He said the slow free agent market "feels coordinated" and that the players...

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Once again, PECOTA not bullish on the O's, plus other notes

February 07, 2018, 7:11pm

Steve Melewski

Orioles

Once again, PECOTA not bullish on the O's, plus other notes

Would it surprise you to know that the New York Yankees have not won the American League East since the 2012 season? Baltimore, Boston and Toronto have all won the East since New York was last on top by two games over the Orioles, with 95 to 93 wins, in 2012. The Yankees would go on to beat the Orioles that fall in the AL Division Series. As a matter of fact, Baltimore, Boston and Toronto have all finished both first and last in the division since when New York last ruled the East. But...

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Notes on Luis Matos, PECOTA, the WBC, Matt Wieters and more

February 08, 2017, 1:27pm

Steve Melewski

Orioles

Notes on Luis Matos, PECOTA, the WBC, Matt Wieters and more

Led by their manager, former Orioles outfielder Luis Matos, Puerto Rico beat Mexico 1-0 in extra innings Tuesday night to win its first Caribbean Series title since 2000. "Being my first year as a manager in Puerto Rico and knowing that Puerto Rico has not won in 16 years brings a lot of joy," Matos told reporters. "I'm very happy and I'm very excited. We've been down in every series. We were 0-3 and we came back with three wins, and we are champions right now." The Orioles drafted Matos...

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PECOTA misses big again on O's, plus early 2017 predictions

November 06, 2016, 7:33am

Steve Melewski

Orioles

PECOTA misses big again on O's, plus early 2017 predictions

When it comes to Baseball Prospectus and its PECOTA projections, it is time to admit that projection system just cannot make accurate projections on the Orioles. The system missed by a mile on the Orioles yet again in the 2016 season. The projection was for last place in the American League East at 72 wins. The end result was a tie for second place, with 89 wins and a wild card berth. Yep, not even close. Again. PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test...

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A look at some inaccurate PECOTA projections for the Orioles, plus other notes

February 16, 2016, 2:03pm

Steve Melewski

Orioles

When Baseball Prospectus released its latest PECOTA projections for the 2016 season, it basically predicted a strong race in the American League East this year - but not one that will include the Orioles. PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is Baseball Prospectus' proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA: * Major league equivalencies, to allow the...

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A look at some possible reasons for predictions the O's will have a poor season

March 02, 2015, 4:56pm

Steve Melewski

Orioles

A look at some possible reasons for predictions the O's will have a poor season

Don't worry, Orioles fans, I am honestly not trying to get your blood pressure elevated and I'm not trolling you. But I do want to spend some time today discussing this topic: O's season predictions. Keep in mind this very, very important fact: Predictions are interesting to look at and debate, but they mean nothing. If you don't believe me just go back to some predictions for last year, which missed on the Orioles by a mile. But even after the Orioles posted 96 wins, an American League...