Because You Asked - I Want to Believe

Because I've become quite adept at disappointing fans who seek answers from me during the coronavirus pandemic, I'm comfortable opening my latest "mailbag" and also putting the word in quotation marks.

With all of the binge-watching that's taking place in households around the world, I'm hoping that you'll happily accept my latest sequel. Try to fit it in between episodes of "Ozark" and "Tiger King."

In a related story, I haven't seen either one. I actually thought the latter was a talk show co-hosted by Tiger Woods and Don King.

As for the former, I'd rather watch a documentary on former Phillies manager Danny Ozark, but I digress.

Let's get to the mailbag. There's some heavy lifting. I'm feeling a draft.

Who will the Orioles select with the second overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft?
And so it begins. It's impossible to say with 100 percent certainty that Player X is the choice, but I do know one thing: It won't be the player taken by the Tigers with the first overall pick.

That's the best you can do?
Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson is expected to be gone when the Orioles are on the clock. The latest Baseball America mock draft again has him headed to the Tigers organization. I believe that's three mocks in a row. Maybe four. Otherwise, the Orioles would probably take him. They need a first baseman about as much as I need a pair of capri pants, but Torkelson is a special hitter. He would have broken Bob Horner's school record for career home runs, but will fall three short due to circumstances beyond his control. Baseball America rates his power as "plus-plus" and also raves about his hitting ability, plus bat speed, and advanced plate discipline and approach. I'll also assume that he's really good at adjusting his batting gloves between pitches. Assuming he's off the board, the Orioles are projected to grab Vanderbilt third baseman/center fielder Austin Martin, who sounds like a really expensive car. An outstanding pure hitter with tremendous bat speed. Martin was a first team All-American and Golden Spikes semifinalist as a sophomore after slashing .392/.486/.604. It's just a question of where to play him.

So you're predicting that the Orioles take Martin if Torkelson is gone?
Yes, but I'll add that they passed on pitchers in the early rounds last season because none were worthy, focusing instead on the middle of the field. There are a couple of really good ones this year in Texas A&M left-hander Asa Lacy and Georgia right-hander Emerson Hancock. They could go in the top five. And let's face it, the Orioles wouldn't get crushed by the critics if they selected a college pitcher with those credentials. Lacy appeared to leapfrog Hancock in the rankings of top pitchers in the draft.

So you think they'd be smarter to take a pitcher rather than a position player?
Did I say that? I don't think they could go wrong with any of the four I've mentioned. No one in the media has seen their draft board. No one on the club is hinting at the pick, perhaps because it hasn't been decided. I'll expand my prediction to say that I'm expecting the Orioles to choose Torkelson, Martin, Lacy or Hancock. It should be noted that the team also holds the 30th and 39th picks and should be able to land a pitcher they like if they pass on Lacy and Hancock with the second selection.

Any other pitchers on the top five radar besides Lacy and Hancock?
Again, I don't know how the Orioles are constructing their board and how a video version looks compared to the old-fashioned kind, but Minnesota right-hander Max Meyer is climbing. The 5.0 version of Baseball America's mock has him one spot ahead of Hancock, going to the Mariners at No. 6. Louisville left-hander Reid Detmers also is worth tracking. He's definitely top 10 material. And yes, I understand that it seems odd for guys to be rising and falling while they're sitting at home. While they've been unable to play any games.

Is money going to influence their first pick based on revenue lost during the shutdown?
I get the logic, but there are only five rounds and the Orioles have shown more of a willingness to spend than in the past. Hold the Matt Hobgood rants. But The Athletic's Keith Law wrote that he's heard rumblings of the Orioles taking Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad "on a discount." He also wrote: "I have heard a few times they won't go with a pitcher here." Law projects that the Orioles will select Martin if Torkelson is gone.

Has anyone on the club undergone a surgical procedure since camp was shut down?
Not the last time that I checked, and it wasn't too long ago. It would require an accident at home. If someone tripped over the dog while rushing to the door to get his Grubhub order.

Have you undergone a surgical procedure since camp was shut down?
My back's a little sore from sitting for too long in a reclining couch, but nothing that warrants your concern. I also choked on a Dorito, but didn't require medical attention.

Which players could benefit from an expanded roster to 30?
Anyone who otherwise might have lost the battle for the backup catcher job. The Orioles could carry three catchers. Anyone who otherwise might have lost the battle for a utility job. The Orioles were going to carry two utility guys, including one who also had the ability to move to the outfield. Now they have room for a third. I had Pat Valaika and Andrew Velazquez making the club back in March. Perhaps Richard Ureña, Richie Martin or Stevie Wilkerson make the opening day roster. Maybe my earlier projection was wrong. Martin can't hone his shortstop skills at Triple-A without a minor league season. Outfielder DJ Stewart wasn't supposed to be ready after undergoing ankle surgery in October. Now? We'll see. And the ability to carry more relievers is an obvious benefit to the bubble guys. We're talking about Cody Carroll, Eric Hanhold, Cole Sulser, Dillon Tate, Hector Velázquez, Kohl Stewart, Chandler Shepherd, Thomas Eshelman and Ty Blach. Among others.

Does the rotation projection from March stay the same?
I'd still go with John Means, Alex Cobb, Asher Wojciechowski, Wade LeBlanc and Tommy Milone, but guys are expected to be on stricter pitch counts. Pitching coach Doug Brocail suggested to me that the Orioles could go with some openers, though not in the "traditional" sense. If something so new can be viewed as traditional. Not one or two innings and then replaced. More like four innings at 60-65 pitches and turn to the 'pen. Hope that the next guy can offer significant coverage. In other words, a lot of what we projected in March can get tossed in the trash. But I'd still make the assumption that the original five comprise the rotation.

What's your lineup?
Let me sift through the trash. If I had to go around the field, I'd put Dwight Smith Jr. in left, Austin Hays in center and Anthony Santander in right. Mason Williams is one of the backups. I'd put Rio Ruiz at third base, José Iglesias at shortstop, Hanser Alberto at second base and Chris Davis at first. I'd put Pedro Severino behind the plate and make Renato Núñez the designated hitter.

Is it unusual for a team to release 37 minor league players at once?
Everything is unusual in 2020. Perhaps you've noticed. The total seems inflated, but keep in mind that there would have been a big batch in late March or early April as players were assigned to affiliates or kept back at extended spring training. And more later. But the shutdown put the tasks on hold. And now we're waiting for confirmation that the minor league season is canceled. And whether teams will be eliminated. Meanwhile, lots of organizations are releasing minor leaguers this week. The Mariners reportedly cut more than 30, the Mets 39 and the Diamondbacks an astounding 64. The sheer volume at this time is most definitely unusual and very unfortunate.

What's the latest on minor leaguers receiving their stipends?
The Orioles will pay their players at least through June. They will get $400 per week. That's the most recent update. And the Sarasota facility remains closed. No optional workouts. Nothing has changed.

Will top prospects go on the 20-man taxi squad instead of sitting at home?
It would make sense, though you also need players who are major league ready. That's the true point of a taxi squad. To swap out players after a long layoff and second version of spring training. The Orioles haven't laid out their plans, waiting to find out if there's actually going to be a season, but I'd certainly expect a bunch of prospects to get in their work and continue their development, however unusual, on the taxi squad. I don't even know if there will be intrasquad-type games.

Do you know if you'll be allowed anywhere near the ballpark?
What are you suggesting? What have you heard?

Nothing. Just ... will the media be granted access? Not that you're banned for some weird reason.
Oh. We don't know. I've heard speculation that we could be restricted to home games, with limited seating in the press box that could reduce the number of media members per outlet. We'd hope to get manager Brandon Hyde and various players in a setting similar to the final days of camp. Social distancing in interviews. Masks or no masks. Whatever. But it's possible that we could be left only with Zoom calls, which would raise the question of whether it's worth going to the ballpark except to see a game in person. Certainly at the beginning to create a scene piece, but what about later? There's also the chance that the media will be kept out entirely. We just don't know.

Will there be a season?
If so, it'll give me a chance to set the all-time record for using the word "truncated."

Do you think there will be a season?
I do. My optimism rises and falls, making me nauseous, but that's mostly due to reports in the morning that suggest the sides are getting closer. Meanwhile, in the latest example, the players hadn't even read the owners' proposal. Once they did in the afternoon, well, you saw what happened. The sky was falling again. And fans became furious that money is the major stumbling block. But I feel like both sides understand the repercussions of a cancelled season and will do everything in their power to play baseball.

Would you feel safe at the ballpark?
I'm not extremely paranoid and I'm not reckless. I'm not going to get careless because I'm tired of wearing a mask inside buildings and I miss my friends. It's a freakin' pandemic. The beach can wait. I'm not going to get sick, or risk making someone ill, because I just had to get a bucket of fries. But to answer your question, I know how to navigate this new world and I'm confident that teams will take all of the necessary precautions.

So you're OK with airline and rail travel?
Oh, hell no.