Will the O's miss Cruz's 40 homers? (plus a take on Connaughton)

One concern that has come up repeatedly about the Orioles for this year is how will they make up the 40 homers lost when Nelson Cruz signed with Seattle.

My answer is this: Don't worry about the Orioles hitting homers. They do that as well as any team in the majors.

Over the last three years, there are seven instances of a team having a 200-homer year. The Orioles have hit 200 or more three times in three years, while the rest of Major League Baseball has combined for four such instances, with the Yankees, Brewers, White Sox and Rangers doing it once each.

The O's have hit 200 homers with and without Cruz, with and without Chris Davis hitting 53, and with and without J.J. Hardy hitting 20 or more.

Homers are not an issue for this team. In 2013, Hardy (25) and Matt Wieters (22) combined for 47 homers. Last year they combined for just 14, with Hardy hitting nine and Wieters five. While both will start the year on the disabled list, they should still have the chance to play in a lot of game and hit the longball. Plenty of their teammates can, too.

While they may not have a player lead the majors in homers this year, as Davis did in 2013 and Cruz did last year, the Orioles will still hit their share.

The Orioles have hit 77 more homers than any other team over the last three years combined.

Most homers in MLB (2012-2014):
637 - Orioles
560 - Toronto
536 - New York Yankees
527 - Oakland
514 - Chicago White Sox

The Orioles hit 211 homers last season to lead the majors and the next closest American League team was Toronto at 177 - or with 34 fewer homers. The O's led the majors in homers in 2013 and ranked second in 2012.

The last year they failed to hit 200 homers was in the 2011 season - and they hit 191 then to rank fourth in the majors.

Memo to fans: Stop worrying about the homers.

O's are No. 6: ESPN's Buster Olney published his MLB power rankings yesterday. The story is insider-only content, but he ranks the Washington Nationals at No. 1 followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals.

He ranks the Orioles at No. 6, which is second-best among American League clubs and tops among those in the AL East. As for the rest of the division, he has the Yankees at No. 11, Boston No. 17, Toronto No. 18 and Tampa Bay at No. 25.

My take on Connaughton: I still believe we will see right-hander Pat Connaughton return to pitch in the Orioles minor leagues. I just have no idea when that will be and it may not be this year.

Connaughton told Boston radio station WEEI yesterday that he wants to pursue an NBA career at the moment.

"I have an opportunity with basketball ahead of me that a lot of teams I've been talking to," Connaughton said. "I've put myself in a position where as a kid I always dreamed of it. I think baseball, for me, is always something I loved to do and something that I was always a little bit better at.

"I'm not going to explore basketball recklessly. I'm still going to make sure I have a realistic opportunity before I explore the options. As of right now, I'm going to explore basketball and see what happens and see how baseball plays out afterwards. ... I want to make sure that I at least seek out that bridge and cross it before I burn it."

That is a change from last June 12, when Connaughton got a bonus check of $428,100 from the Orioles.

At a press conference at Camden Yards then he said: "I will take a little pause when I go back to school, play basketball and get my degree. I'll graduate in December (of 2014) and when basketball season is over I'll have no more obligation to Notre Dame. I'll have degree in hand and basketball obligation complete and be able to attack this thing full time."

I feel like the sentence where he talked about crossing the bridge before burning it is the key here. It seems that he wants to test the NBA waters while he can and his stock is at its highest. Many predict he is not quite good enough or big enough to make the NBA and won't even be drafted. That could be true, but if you've worked so hard at that sport, maybe Connaughton feels he owes it to himself to take a shot.

The Orioles brass is, to say the least, excited to see what Connaughton could become if and when he becomes a one-sport guy and a pitcher full-time.

I still see that day coming, we just don't know the date. I see no reason to rip Connaughton right now or feel he misled the Orioles or went back on his word.

His best chance to go far in any sport is still likely on a mound. The Orioles control his rights as far as I can tell, so whenever he would come back to baseball - be it this year or beyond - he'll do it an an Oriole.

Basketball is in his very immediate future. Baseball is still in his long-range future, it seems to me.