Warm thoughts of baseball can help on a snow day in Baltimore

If you live in the Baltimore area, you were out of practice shoveling snow. Not anymore. What a pleasure to get some reps in after the snow overnight Monday into Tuesday. I had almost forgotten how no fun that is.

It does make one say at least once during the shoveling, probably in their head to themselves, “I can’t wait for warm weather and baseball.”

You don’t need to shovel rain or heat.

If seeing something white that wasn’t a baseball made you think even for a second about the 2023 Orioles season, you probably had some warm and nice thoughts at least.

Some have asked me my favorite moment of last year and there is not one really. It’s a blur of good memories and fun times, covering a team that proved it was very good and kept answering every challenge. Until the very end.

Do the Orioles have enough pitching as the roster currently stands?

In recent days we have discussed the possibility of the Orioles adding a starting pitcher via a trade and it’s been a topic at hand for the entire offseason. The club remains one of several that seem intent on adding one quality starting pitcher to their current rotation.

Barring a real surprise – one where the Orioles dive into the deep-end of the free-agent pool and offer big dollars to someone – a trade for a pitcher has seemed the most logical move all along. They have a deep and talented farm and can compete with just about anyone via the trade market where they don’t seem to have the same desire via free agency.

But what if the Orioles miss out here or in the end, determine they are not ready to meet the trade price to get another starting pitcher? What if they have to take the field in late March without an addition in the rotation?

Do they have enough right now to have a 90-100 win team that will contend for the playoffs? Probably, but another starter would sure provide added insurance to better answer that as being more positive.

For the 2023 season, the O’s team ERA was 3.89 to rank fifth-best in the American League. Baltimore was just a few points behind third-place Tampa Bay's 3.86 and a bit further back of first-place Minnesota's 3.74.

Another round of rotation talk and who'd start Opening Day

Left-handers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain on the free-agent market but are viewed as too pricey for the Orioles. The contract length and dollars don’t work for them.

The club is linked to Marcus Stromen in various reports, whether due to serious or surface interest. Could be ongoing talks or tire kicking.

Could be an attempt to stick another team into the conversation besides the Yankees.

A recent article on this site spurred a discussion over a No. 1 starter and whether anyone should slot ahead of Kyle Bradish. And more specific, in comparison to the White Sox’s Dylan Cease if the Orioles managed to acquire him in a trade.

Cease was 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 32 starts in 2022 and finished second in American League Cy Young voting. Bradish was 4-7 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in 23 starts as a rookie.

More facts and opinions (O's add Calvert Hall grad to minors deal)

Time to present a few more facts and opine about them today. We take a look at some things that happened with the 2023 Orioles and some that might happen in 2024.

Fact: The Orioles set a single-season team record with 1,431 strikeouts in the 2023 season. Not only did that club set a team record, but they shattered the previous mark of 1,248 strikeouts, set in 2016 and 2019.

Opinion and other facts: Despite that number, a record-setting number covering a long span of time with the first O’s season in 1954, the O’s are not a big strikeout team.

They did in fact have that many strikeouts last year but that ranked only as the ninth-most in the American League and 13th-most in the majors. AL average for the season was 1,422. The Orioles averaged 8.86 strikeouts per every nine innings and that was also a team record and is the only time in club history they averaged 8.00 over the full season for every nine innings. But the 8.86 number ranked only as 10th best in the AL where eight teams averaged 9.00 or more per nine.

While the O’s strikeout percentage ranked better – they were seventh in the AL at 23.5 (MLB average was 22.7) – they were not among the top clubs in that stat either.

Looking back on 2023 season filled with Orioles surprises and achievements

Mike Elias expressed confidence on Feb. 3, the first day of the Birdland Caravan, that the Orioles would concentrate on contending. The rebuild “is behind us,” he said. They were set up to be “a very competitive team for years.”

Then, they exceeded expectations by country miles.

They’d love to stick with the old script in the new year, with deletions made in the postseason chapter. Not another one-and-done scenario, swept out of the Division Series and sent back to Baltimore in crushed packaging.

The ball dropping in Times Square won't create the same thud as the ending to the Orioles’ season. However, those 101 victories and the many awards that followed allowed 2023 to rank among the best in franchise history.

Some people might say it all began on the first day of spring training, when Elias, now entering his sixth season as executive vice president/general manager, surprised the media by revealing that reliever Dillon Tate would go on the injured list with a strained flexor/forearm that could keep him out until May, and closer Félix Bautista would be slow-played while doing exercises to strengthen his left knee and right shoulder. No promises that he'd be ready for Opening Day.

Looking back at Opening Day roster and impactful exclusions

The evolution of a baseball season touches a team’s roster, and the Orioles underwent some interesting and important changes in 2023.

James McCann was on the injured list Opening Day with a strained oblique, but he served as a trusted backup to All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman and a veteran leader in the clubhouse. A media favorite for his availability and thoughtful responses, for being a standup guy even while seated at his locker. A manager favorite for his toughness.

The kind of positive influence that organizations appreciate.

Other exclusions from the Opening Day roster had nothing to do with injuries and might be forgotten, considering their impact on the first division title since 2014.

Reliever Yennier Cano appeared in three games in 2022, allowed nine runs and nine hits with five walks in 4 1/3 innings and didn’t make the club out of spring training this year. He allowed four runs over seven exhibition innings, but walked only one batter and struck out 10 after tweaking his delivery and discovering how to repeat his arm slot.

Trying to guard against regression in the rotation in 2024

The Orioles rotation – whether they add to it this offseason or not – just might be good enough now to take another run at an American League East championship. Currently, I expect that four members of that rotation look firm: Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means and Dean Kremer.

A fifth or even someone that could bump someone else out of that four could be in a group that includes Tyler Wells, DL Hall and Cole Irvin.

Surely, the Orioles could call on five of that group of seven and feel pretty good about their rotation right now. And again, they may add to that list of pitchers and maybe add someone who is pretty good. At least that was part of the plan when this offseason began.

The O’s rotation ERA of 4.14 for the 2023 year was just seventh-best in the AL for the full season. But it was much better in the second half at 3.74. An ERA of 3.74 for the year would have ranked first in the AL as Minnesota at 3.82 led the AL in rotation ERA for the season.

Kremer and Bradish got off to slow starts this year and Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA at the end of May. The Orioles were 35-21 at the end of May and four games out of first place. So they were doing just fine, but things would get better in the second half when their pitching – especially among their starters - really got going.

Is this pitcher a bit overlooked in the Baltimore rotation?

He is not the forgotten man in the Orioles starting rotation but maybe he is at times slightly overlooked.

With Birdland excited about Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez at the top of that rotation and the return of lefty John Means late last year in addition to the potential to add another starter, we can look past the 2023 contributions of right-hander Dean Kremer.

And we certainly should not, although on the stat sheet, his ’23 was not as strong in some respects as his ’22. But last season Kremer made 32 starts and the Orioles went 24-8 (.750). That stat alone should grab your attention. For comparison, they went 19-11 (.633) in Bradish’s starts and 14-9 (.609) when Rodriguez took the mound.

That doesn’t make Kremer a better pitcher since so much goes into that record like the defense behind you, run support and the ability for the late relievers to close out your game. But Kremer puts his team in position to win such a high percentage of his starts.

His season was marred by a slow start. In fact, his ERA was 6.67 in April. But then it was 3.59 his last 26 starts, as the Orioles went 21-5. Had he posted a 3.59 ERA for the full year he would have finished ninth in the AL in that stat.

This, that and the other

No matter how the 26-man roster is constructed for Opening Day, the Orioles will depend heavily and utilize to its fullest the versatility and flexibility that provides manager Brandon Hyde with a wealth of lineup options.

Gunnar Henderson seems like he’s going to keep bouncing between shortstop and third base, as Jordan Westburg can do between second and third, with at least a slight possibility of getting his first major league innings at short.

Jackson Holliday, whether in March or later, would play second and short. Third base isn’t in the immediate plans. The utility role demands movement, which can be handled by Ramón Urías, Jorge Mateo or Joey Ortiz. Maybe a combination of two.

Ryan O’Hearn can play first base and the corner outfield. Anthony Santander can play right field and first base.

James McCann’s value as the backup catcher includes his ability to play first, where he’s made six career starts and 11 appearances. Adley Rutschman can do it, as proven during his college and minor league days, but the Orioles haven’t tried it.

Could Orioles pivot away from trying for a No. 1 starter and lower expectations?

The Orioles have a stated goal of placing a starter at or near the top of their rotation, but they also are prepared to deliver a counter punch. They’re a team that could bob and weave, backpedal and head in the other direction.

A last resort might be to insert a pitcher toward the back end and hope that returnees Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez can be true aces.

Spending is limited for a franchise that’s more than reluctant to launch the payroll into the upper echelon. An anchor is dropped. The room for movement is limited, small-to-mid-market status cutting off the ring.

Outbidding the many deep-pocketed clubs isn’t a strategy. Offering left-hander Eduardo Rodríguez $80 million over four years, as the Diamondbacks did to sign the former Orioles farmhand, never seemed like a realistic maneuver.

MLBTradeRumors.com projected a nine-year, $225 million contract for Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a seven-year, $200 million deal for Blake Snell and a six-year, $150 million contract for Jordan Montgomery.

More on Gibson's departure and what it says about Orioles' rotation plans

The Cardinals signing of Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $12 million deal with an option didn’t shed much light on the Orioles’ plans for their rotation.

Those intentions already are illuminated.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias wants an upper-level starter for the rotation. Gibson is a great guy who put up some good numbers in 2023, but Elias is aiming higher.

He won’t find a higher-quality individual, but this is about upgrading the rotation.

Elias gave interviews at the general managers meetings and to MASNsports.com and 105.7 The Fan over the last few weeks, and it’s the same summary. He wants pitching. Near or at the top of the rotation and in the back end of the bullpen.

Thoughts and quotes on Orioles minor league development and positive environment

The Orioles made some significant adjustments to their minor league structure last week by promoting Anthony Villa to director of player development and Matt Blood to vice president of player development and domestic scouting. Moves put into motion with Brad Ciolek vacating his position as director of draft operations.

The ensuing months will reveal more changes, with the Orioles waiting to get it settled later in the offseason, per usual.

What stays the same is the approach to developing and maintaining the pitching. The data, instruction and philosophy. Methods that carry prospects to the majors and at times allow for needed resets after early struggles.

For example, Grayson Rodriguez.

“I’d like to know what the Orioles did to him because we need to do it,” said a scout from another organization. “They sent him down and said, ‘Hey, you’re not coming back until you get fastball command,’ and he has definitely shown it. He went down with a purpose, and he was a different pitcher from when I saw him in April or May till when I saw him there in September. Much different.

The pitchers had a solid season, and it got better in the second half

In one sense it was a bit unexpected that an O’s pitching staff that performed so well in the second half of the 2023 season would perform poorly in the playoffs. But they gave up 21 runs as Texas swept the Orioles in three games. They gave up 18 in the last two games as starters Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer combined to allow 11 runs in 3 1/3 innings.

Texas is a good hitting team, but Orioles pitchers seemed to be hitting their stride the longer the season went on. This time Texas got the better of them.

For the 2023 season, the O’s team ERA was 3.89 to rank fifth-best in the American League. Baltimore was just a few points behind third-place Tampa Bay's 3.86 and a bit further back of first-place Minnesota's 3.74.

In the first half of the season Orioles pitching went 54-35 (.607) with a 4.15 ERA. In the second half the staff went 47-26 (.644) with a 3.58 ERA of 3.58 that was first in the AL and third in the major leagues. The O's played at a 104-win pace after the All-Star game.

The O’s team ERA by month in 2023:

Leftovers for breakfast

The Orioles were shut out yesterday in Fielding Bible Award selections. They’ll have to settle for having three players with a chance to win a Rawlings Gold Glove.

That’s the extent of their glove love in 2023.

Jorge Mateo won the award at shortstop last season, though he was excluded from the list of finalists for a Gold Glove.

The Cubs’ Dansby Swanson earned the Fielding Bible Award in 2023, the only unanimous selection. He led all shortstops with 18 defensive runs saved.

As you’ve probably figured out, only one award is handed out at each position. There isn’t a separation of the two leagues.

Questioning exactly what the Orioles need in their rotation (Hyde, Elias and Henderson win awards)

The World Series begins Friday night in Arlington, Texas, with the Rangers facing the Diamondbacks. The way nobody expected it.

I didn’t perform an exhaustive search, but I’m confident in saying industry-wide projections back in March didn’t include this pairing. But teams get hot at the right time, and they burn a path to the Fall Classic.

They also scorch the doubters, and the list of names was miles long.

Jordan Montgomery would have been a nice fit with the Orioles, but the Cardinals traded him to the Rangers around the deadline, along with reliever Chris Stratton, for left-hander John King and two top 30 prospects in pitcher Tekoah Roby and infielder Thomas Saggese.

The Orioles have the No. 1 ranked farm system in baseball. They won’t outspend teams but can out-prospect them.

A few quick takes as the O's fall into an 0-2 hole in the ALDS

The Orioles are now down 0-2 in this best-of-five American League Division Series. They had 101 wins in the regular season and won the AL East championship, but after today’s 11-8 loss to Texas, their season will be over with one more loss.

With the Orioles down 11-5 in the ninth, Aaron Hicks blasted a three-run homer off Texas closer Jose Leclerc. He drove in five runs today. But the pitching gave up 11. 

The Orioles have now lost seven straight postseason games since their last win in the 2014 ALDS versus Detroit. The Rangers are 4-0 in the 2023 playoffs. 

The Orioles face a must-win situation Tuesday night at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

A few thoughts on Game 2:

Orioles move within game of elimination in ALDS following 11-8 loss (updated)

Grayson Rodriguez handed the ball to manager Brandon Hyde, walked to the dugout without raising his head and bolted down the steps. Too brisk a pace for teammates to reach out to him. Nothing they could have done anyway to soothe him.

The rookie was put in a tough spot. He didn’t make it through the second inning.

Can the Orioles make it past the Division Series?

They are teetering on the edge after today’s 11-8 loss to the Rangers in Game 2, played before an announced sellout crowd of 46,475 at Camden Yards. Aaron Hicks greeted José Leclerc with a three-run homer in the ninth, but the deficit was too large to overcome.

Mitch Garver hit a grand slam off Jacob Webb in the third after Bryan Baker walked the bases loaded. Nine runs on the board. A team in distress.

O's game blog: Looking to get even in ALDS Game 2 at Oriole Park

The Orioles (101-61), champions of the American League East and the No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs, need a win today against the Texas Rangers (90-72) to even the AL Division Series.

Texas used six pitchers Saturday to hold the Orioles to five hits in a 3-2 win in the series opener. Andrew Heaney got the start, allowing one run in 3 2/3 innings, and Dane Dunning pitched two innings of relief to get the win. José Leclerc got the last three outs to record a save.

O's starter Kyle Bradish allowed two runs over 4 2/3 to take the loss. The O's six pitchers combined to strike out 16 batters, their most ever in a nine-inning postseason game.

The Orioles have now lost the first game of three straight playoff series dating to an opening win in the 2014 ALDS versus Detroit. They are now 52-41 all-time in postseason games and 11-6 in ALDS games.

Heading into this year's playoffs, Texas had a six-game postseason losing streak. Now they have gone 3-0 versus the Rays and Orioles by a combined 14-3 score. Their pitchers have allowed just the three runs on 19 hits in 27 innings for a postseason ERA of 1.00.

Hyde explains Game 1 miscommunication, today's lineup decisions and his confidence in bounceback

The miscommunication yesterday that led to Gunnar Henderson’s failed stolen base attempt in the ninth inning of Game 1 was a missed sign by Aaron Hicks on a hit-and-run.

Manager Brandon Hyde explained the situation this afternoon during his daily media session.

Henderson broke for second base on a 2-1 count. José Leclerc’s changeup was called a ball, though he appeared to catch the outside corner, Henderson slowed on his way to second base and was thrown out.

Hicks fouled off the next pitch and then struck out.

“We just missed the hit-and-run sign there,” Hyde said. “That's just something that we've done a lot this year. Hicksy has been wonderful for us this entire season in so many ways. We do put runners in motion, we have to do things. We don’t hit a ton of homers. Trying to generate offense a little bit at times. And we bunt, we do the little things. And yesterday we just missed a sign in the ninth inning there. But that didn’t cost us the game. We had opportunities to score before that.

DL Hall stayed on a roll in Game 1 and the O's challenge vs. Montgomery

He ended the season getting a lot of big outs out of the Baltimore bullpen, and that continued through Saturday's Game 1 appearance versus Texas.

Late this year, in that relief role, lefty DL Hall looks very much like the top prospect he was coming up through the O's farm system.

In his last seven regular-season games, Hall pitched 7 1/3 innings, allowing one unearned run on just three hits with no walks and seven strikeouts. In that span, opponent batters hit just .115 off him with a .231 OPS.

Yesterday, in 1 2/3 innings, he did not allow a run or hit while recording one walk and three strikeouts.

For manager Brandon Hyde right now, the plan is simple: Get Hall the ball.