Notes on Orioles first full-squad workout, Holliday, Bautista and more

SARASOTA, Fla. – The Orioles moved to the next phase of spring training today with the first full-squad workout. Drills of every kind, with players grouped by position. Live batting practice sessions on multiple fields, including inside Ed Smith Stadium.

“I feel like we’ve been out here a couple weeks,” manager Brandon Hyde said with a laugh.

“Guys are really excited. Really love the talent here. It’s a great character group. Just walking around, talking to guys this morning, they’re excited to get going. Saturday’s going to come quick, so we’ve got to get ready to go.”

Hyde gathered everyone in the clubhouse before the workout began for the traditional talk, covering how the team exceeded expectations last summer and what he expects from it in 2023.

“Honestly, just want us to build off last year,” he said. “We have a (large) core group of guys, they got a lot of confidence from last year. It’s pretty much just building off a season where nobody expected us to do anything.

Bautista expresses optimism about Opening Day

SARASOTA, Fla. – With his fourth bullpen session completed, the intensity level on a gradual increase, Orioles closer Félix Bautista is gaining confidence that he’ll break camp with the team and be ready to pitch on Opening Day in Boston.

Bautista didn’t begin throwing until last month. The Orioles placed him on a rehab program for his left knee and worked to strengthen a right shoulder that became fatigued in September.

The delays in getting back on a mound put into question whether Bautista would be included in their eight-man bullpen.  

“Thank God I feel really good,” he said this morning via interpreter Brandon Quinones. “I don’t feel like I have any setbacks, I don’t feel any discomfort or pain in my shoulder or knee, so as right now I hope that I’ll be ready for opening day. I really do.”

Dillon Tate might miss the first month with a strained right flexor/forearm strain, and losing Bautista would strike another potentially damaging blow. Bautista threw again yesterday and headed back indoors, optimistic about his progress and the outlook for his spring training.

Hyde sifting through collection of closer candidates if Bautista isn't ready for opener

SARASOTA, Fla. – Being two days into workouts prevents Orioles manager Brandon Hyde from identifying many rock-solid certainties, including roles for some pitchers who are in the starters mix. However, it isn’t too soon for him to wonder how he’s going to replace Félix Bautista if the big right-hander isn’t on the opening day roster.

Bautista threw a bullpen session earlier today, but he’s on a rehabilitation program for the left knee that he injured in late September, and the Orioles are working to strengthen his right shoulder after a bout with fatigue that limited his use down the stretch.

Whether Bautista is in Boston on March 30 depends on more than his health. He must reach an innings total that satisfies the Orioles after being withheld from earlier exhibition games.

“He could be able to break for Opening Day,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said yesterday, “depending on how much of a ramp-up we’re able to get him.”

Bautista became the Orioles’ saves leader with 15 after they traded Jorge López to the Twins at the deadline. López totaled 19 during his first All-Star season.

Tate to begin season on injured list; Bautista and Hall also ailing

SARASOTA, Fla. – The opening day roster projections in Orioles camp took a huge hit before players filtered onto the back fields for the first workout with pitchers and catchers.

Reliever Dillon Tate will begin the season on the injured list after straining his right flexor/forearm in November. The explanation for why he isn’t pitching in the World Baseball Classic.

Closer Félix Bautista is questionable for opening day because he’s been rehabbing his left knee all winter and immersed in a strengthening program for his right shoulder, which will keep him out of games until later in spring training.

Left-hander DL Hall also is going to be slow-played in camp after experiencing lower right lumbar discomfort about three weeks ago.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias began this morning’s media session by listing the injuries and trying to offer projections on time missed.

Looking for Orioles locks heading into spring training

So close to the start of spring training, so insecure about how much I’m willing to guarantee about the 2023 Orioles.

They won’t move out of Baltimore during the season. Bet the house on it.

They won’t change managers. They won’t change mascots. They won’t change Boog’s BBQ into a vegan concession stand.

But what about the team itself prior to opening day? Here are a dozen:

Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin are locks for the rotation.
One signed for $10 million and the other came in a trade that cost infield prospect Darell Hernaiz and is a needed left-hander. Gibson could be the opening day starter in Boston if the Orioles want a right-hander at Fenway Park. The Orioles expect Grayson Rodriguez to break camp in the rotation. They are openly rooting for it. But I can’t issue an absolute guarantee. At least, not at the Gibson/Irvin level.

Bautista won't need to battle for bullpen role in 2023

Félix Bautista didn’t know whether the Orioles would put him on the 40-man roster to protect him from a 2021 Rule 5 draft that never happened. He didn’t know whether he’d break camp with the team. So many uncertainties that have been shed like unwanted pounds.

Bautista became a dominant set-up man and closer as a 27-year-old rookie, and one of the easiest calls to make as spring training nears is his status in the bullpen. He’s the ninth-inning guy. Others can vie for the role when he isn’t available.

The only sour note was his finish. Bautista became less effective and available down the stretch due to arm fatigue, and he went on the injured list Oct. 3 with left knee discomfort.

The offseason is devoted in part to finding ways to build endurance and stay strong, though exposure to a first major league season should simplify the task.

“It’s a lot of focused, hard work, trying to focus on getting my shoulder, and my legs specifically, stronger and make sure there’s no lingering issues throughout the season,” he said via interpreter Brandon Quinones.

Looking at the makeup for the late innings in the O's bullpen

The signing of former Orioles right-hander Mychal Givens lengthened the current Orioles bullpen with the addition of another quality arm. In one sense he can pick up some of the slack that Jorge López left behind after his trade to the Minnesota Twins.

One possibility that could really benefit the team would be a scenario where Félix Bautista closes out games in the ninth with setup help in the eighth from left-hander Cionel Pérez. Pérez was such a surprise last year and got out both left- and right-handed hitters. It is unlikely the O’s would need just two pitchers for those innings, but in many wins last year before the López trade, Bautista did get into the game in the eighth and López in the ninth.

The ways clubs use bullpens these days, they pretty much look to match up from about the seventh inning on, maybe even starting with the sixth some nights. But having two dependable hurlers to handle those last two innings many nights in winnable games is one way to go.

The O’s could have some combo of Bautista, Pérez, Dillon Tate, Givens and Bryan Baker for those last nine or 10 or so outs. If DL Hall makes the team and/or winds up in the bullpen, we can add him to this mix. Or Keegan Akin, Joey Krehbiel or several other bullpen candidates/options.

But for now, pending any further moves, the Orioles look to be fortified pretty well for the late innings.

The O's hurler who featured one of the most dominant pitches in the majors

To say the least, Orioles reliever Félix Bautista has a devastating split-finger fastball. It would dive down in the zone under the bats of many hitters as a huge swing-and-miss pitch and played very well with a fastball that averaged 99.2 mph. His split averaged 88.5 mph.

It was not only among the very best splitters thrown by any pitcher in the game, but that pitch, which has the facts to back it up, was among the very best individual pitches thrown by anyone during the 2022 season.

What a year Bautista had and to put it further into perspective, his first minor league season was 2013. Not until 2021 did he even make it to Double-A, where he pitched 13 1/3 innings. He would add 18 1/3 Triple-A innings. So he made the O’s roster last season with a total of 31 2/3 innings in his life above A-ball.

Then for the Orioles, he went 4-4 with a 2.19 ERA and 15 saves in 17 chances. Over 65 2/3 innings he allowed just 38 hits and produced an 0.929 WHIP. He gave up just 5.2 hits per nine and 1.0 homers with 3.2 walks and 12.1 strikeouts. Lefty batters had a .523 OPS against him and right-handers were at .541. He had a 9.1 walk percentage and 34.8 strikeout percentage. At home his ERA was 2.58, and on the road it was 1.65.

So yeah, pretty strong from start to finish by almost any measure.

A few more from the 2023 season wish list

As the New Year began on Sunday, we provided a wish list for some players and O's staff for the 2023 season. We add to that here today.

Terrin Vavra and Kyle Stowers: More regular at-bats. I think that on rebuilding O’s teams that were headed for 100 or more losses, one or both of these players may have been given 300 or 400 plate appearances, and we could really tell a bit about them in such a sample. The 2023 edition may make that hard for one or both.

But among all Orioles that batted last year, Vavra’s .340 OBP ranked fourth. We know this kid can work the count and uses the whole field, We also know he hit just one homer in 103 plate appearances. The power is just not going to be there, but he has to bring what he can bring, which is the plate discipline needed on a club that ranked 22nd in the majors in this stat last year.

Stowers power seems to be a real thing. He ranked fifth on the team in slugging among all O’s batters in 2022. He can drive it out to all fields and worked to decrease his K rate at Triple-A last year. I think that, given enough at-bats, Stowers could produce solid corner outfield stats and also would bring average-or-better defense with a plus arm.

Jorge Mateo: The ability to find once again whatever he found batting that made his hitting, sub-par to that point, look above average and even special at times for a spell last year. He did have a nice five-week stretch of hitting that ran from July 16 to Aug. 23, including his big night at the Little League Classic. In that span of 31 games he batted .321 with a .944 OPS. You thought maybe he had turned a corner. But that did not hold up, and over his final 36 games he hit .174/.213/.270/.483.

Remembering some remaining 2022 moments as a new year arrives

Happy New Year. Hope you remembered to hydrate before going to bed.

You’ll know if it wasn’t enough.

One of the best pieces of advice I ever received was to order a water with every alcoholic beverage. You can thank me later.

Do people still use a designated driver, or have Uber and Lyft made it obsolete?

Anyway, the year 2022 is officially behind us and I can begin referring to it as “last season.” But I want to take a final glance. Never can say goodbye.

A few questions relating to Orioles bullpen

The Orioles are concentrating on upgrades for their rotation, but they also could acquire at least one new reliever on a major league or minor league deal. They don’t usually bring back the exact same unit while expecting the exact same results. That's a dangerous little game.

If nothing else, they can increase the camp competition.

The trust that the bullpen instilled in manager Brandon Hyde keyed the 2022 turnaround. Leads didn’t dissolve like teaspoons of sugar in water.

The Orioles were 60-2 when ahead after the sixth inning, 64-3 after the seventh and 71-3 after the eighth. They kept deficits manageable and allowed for late comebacks.

The ‘pen’s 3.49 ERA ranked ninth in the majors. The Orioles were last in 2019 and 2021, and 27th in 2018.

A look at O's pitch usage/mix from 2022

dillon-tate

We are getting into the weeds a bit here today, digging into some pitching numbers that might be interesting to look at and note. Maybe they actually tell us something about Orioles pitching as well.

First, in the simplest terms, O’s pitchers, as a staff, threw fewer fastballs and changeups in 2022 compared to 2021. They threw more sliders and cutters and a similar number of curveballs.

In 2021, the Orioles used fastballs (four- and two-seamers combined) 51.0 percent, and that dropped to 47.3 this year. Their average fastball velocity increased, however, from 93.0 mph in 2021, which ranked 22nd in the major leagues, to 93.8 mph this season, tying them for 12th in the bigs. Some of the flamethrowers in the bullpen, no doubt, helped increase that average.

In 2021, the Orioles led the majors in throwing changeups, doing so 15.7 percent of the time. This season that percentage dropped to 13.3, which was still sixth-highest in baseball. That means the O’s still really like changeups.

In watching the team this year, there were nights I said to myself, ‘Hey, self, the O’s love the cutter.’ They used that pitch 5.2 percent of the time in ’21 (to rank 20th in the majors) and increased that this year to 8.4 percent (10th in baseball).

The big man with a big arm had a big year for the Orioles

These stats seem pretty good. And probably just about any pitcher would take such numbers.

* Top three percent of Major League Baseball in strikeout percentage.

* Top one percent in velocity.

* Top eight percent in whiff percentage and expected slugging against.

* Ranks 10th in the American League in ERA among pitchers throwing 60 or more innings.

The many mistakes made in preseason evaluations of 2022 Orioles

The Orioles had their predictable side this season. The skinny side.

Adley Rutschman made his major league debut and lived up to the hype. He’s getting votes for American League Rookie of the Year. He’s the real deal.

What else?

Reciting the shockers is more time consuming. Rest breaks are recommended.

The winning record and playoff contention until the last road series is No. 1, which leads to Brandon Hyde’s unexpected status as favorite to be named American League Manager of the Year by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

This, that and the other

The local media doesn’t vote on an award that honors the Most Improved Oriole. Deciding on an MVO can be hard enough, and the field expanded this year. Too many players to fit on a three-man ballot.

Who deserved recognition as the imaginary MIO?

Maybe it was outfielder Anthony Santander, who registered career-best numbers in multiple categories. Or shortstop Jorge Mateo, who led the American League in stolen bases. Or starter Dean Kremer, who lowered his ERA from 7.55 last year to 3.23 and his WHIP from 1.640 to 1.253. Or one of the relievers, with Félix Bautista and Cionel Pérez leading the pack.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias couldn’t single out one player back on Oct. 5 when asked who took the biggest step forward.

“I think one of the things that I’m most proud of with this year’s team is you can take all 28 guys who are in that room right now and pretty much make the argument that every single one of their careers is in as good or a better place than it was a calendar year ago,” Elias said.

Elias: "I feel like this team is officially in the fight in the American League East"

The Orioles were saddled with two games on the final day of the 2022 season, an inconvenient doubleheader born from the club’s fifth rainout. A final jab from the baseball gods.

Nothing really hurt the Orioles this summer beyond their official elimination from the wild card chase. Being in it after national projections of 100-plus losses felt like a huge win.

Many more are expected in the coming years.

“Looking at the entire organization, I think we’re very pleased with everything that happened up and down the organization this year,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said this morning. “First and foremost, the way that this team played and competed at the major league level is something that I think rightfully our players and coaches deserve a lot of credit for. We’re not where we want to be or need to be in the division. It’s very daunting looking at these other four, not only teams but organizations in our division, picturing having to beat them to make it to the playoffs next year, but that’s our goal and we feel that the organization is in a position now to realistically pursue that goal for next year. So that’s going to be my focus this offseason, and I think the focus of our squad when we meet in Sarasota next year.

“It’s not going to be easy, given who we have to compete against and who we have to play against, but as I said in the summer, I feel like this team is officially in the fight in the American League East, and that’s a big achievement. It doesn’t mean we’re going to be complacent about it. We know that we had some relatively good health this season. We had some guys have good seasons. It’s tough to repeat in this league. Players make adjustments against you, we’ve got a lot of young guys. We may have some individual steps back, but we plan to hopefully reinforce this group, keep helping the players improve, and hope that we can take another step forward next season and get into the playoffs that we narrowly missed out on this year.”

Leftovers for breakfast

Omar’s whistle has been silenced at Camden Yards.

The hype video goes into storage, along with the 100 mph fastball and filthy splitter.

Félix Bautista packed away his jerseys and other items yesterday for shipment home. The big boxes in front of lockers are a sure sign of fall, and the end of a baseball season.

Unfortunately, Bautista’s season reached its conclusion yesterday with three home games remaining on the schedule. The Orioles didn’t want him trying to pitch with some lingering discomfort in his left knee. His work here is done.

Bautista told me yesterday that he felt much better and was available, if the Orioles kept him on the active roster. That’s the competitor in him.

Bautista on injured list with sore knee (and other notes)

The Orioles have recalled reliever Yennier Canó from Triple-A Norfolk and placed Félix Bautista on the 15-day injured list with left knee discomfort. Bautista is done for 2022.

The rookie made the 40-man roster and then the opening day roster and finished with a 2.19 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in 65 appearances, which tied for second-most behind Dillon Tate’s 66. He recorded 15 saves, 13 after the Jorge López trade to Minnesota, and he allowed 38 hits and struck out 88 batters in 65 2/3 innings.

Bautista averaged 3.2 walks per nine innings, compared to 5.1 in seven minor league seasons.

“We’re going to shut him down for the rest of the season, unfortunately,” said manager Brandon Hyde. “So happy with the season he had and him going forward. What a great story. Great story for us, great story for him. Love watching him pitch, and looking forward to having him next year.”

Bautista, who received votes on the Most Valuable Oriole ballot, said earlier today that his knee felt better and he could come out of the bullpen if allowed.

O's game blog: Looking for a series win in the road season finale

The Orioles have four games left in the 2022 season as they continue to seek at least one more win to achieve their first winning season since going 89-73 in 2016.

Today they play the final road game of this series and road trip, and the final road game of the season. They can win the series with a victory today. They are 2-4 on this road trip and 37-43 on the season in road games. They are 10-13-2 in their road series this year.

The Orioles beat the Yankees 2-1 on Friday night, holding New York to four hits as Jordan Lyles pitched seven innings and the O’s got one each from Félix Bautista and DL Hall, who recorded his first MLB save. But Saturday, the Orioles were held to three hits in an 8-0 loss to New York.

The Orioles were shutout for the second time in 13 games, the fourth in 26 games, the 11th time on the season and the third time by the Yankees, who also pitched shutouts against Baltimore on May 25 and July 24.

New York pitchers recorded their 16th shutout of the season. The game marked just the second time in the last 44 seasons, since 1979, that the Yankees have recorded as many shutouts in a year. They also had 16 in 1998. Yankees batters homered twice Saturday and they lead MLB with 246 home runs. That number is their third-most in a single season in franchise history, trailing only the 306 in 2019 and 267 in 2018.

Updating the rotation for the last series (and more)

NEW YORK – The Orioles have set two-thirds of their rotation for the final series of 2022.

Dean Kremer and Mike Baumann are starting the first two games against the Blue Jays at Camden Yards. The spot for Wednesday afternoon is listed as TBA.

Manager Brandon Hyde said he wants to check on veteran Jordan Lyles, who’s made a career-high 32 starts this season and is one inning short of the career-high 180 he reached last year with the Rangers.

Grayson Rodriguez, the No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball, has been throwing to stay ready in case of a late promotion, but the Orioles aren’t expected to select his contract this week.

Asked about Rodriguez, Hyde said, “That would be a question for Mike (Elias). Moving prospects to the big leagues, those are directed to the front office decisions.”