Second half storylines worth watching

The All-Star Game has come and gone, but we’ve still got one more day left in the All-Star break. No baseball will be played today. Come back Friday evening for that, when the Nationals open of a six-game homestand against the Reds and Padres.

The halfway point of the season has already long since come and gone. The Nats have played 97 games, so remarkably there are only 65 left. But this will be the start of the ceremonial second half of the season, and there is plenty to still take place before the 2024 campaign is over.

Here’s a look at the top storylines the Nationals figure to face over the next 2 1/2 months …

HOW GOOD IS WOOD?
James Wood has now spent two weeks in the big leagues, and there was a big difference between those two weeks. Week 1 saw the top prospect take the world by storm, crushing balls well over 100 mph, drawing six walks with only seven strikeouts and producing a .320/.452/.480 slash line. Week 2 saw the league start to figure him out and saw Wood start to get out of his comfort zone, striking out 13 times without drawing a walk and slashing .179/.207/.179. It’s far too soon to draw any real conclusions, but 2 1/2 months from now, we should have a really good idea just how good Wood is. Can he make the necessary adjustments at the plate and start consistently squaring up the ball again? Can he start to look more comfortable in left field? Is he ready to be the face of this franchise, or is that process going to take a bit more time?

CAN THE YOUNG PITCHING HOLD UP?
There was so much to like about the Nationals’ young starting pitchers from April through June, but we started to see some cracks in the foundation the last two weeks. The question: Are these guys starting to wear down, and is that going to continue in the second half? It would not be surprising if that happens to the least experienced of the group, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz. But MacKenzie Gore and Jake Irvin have been through this before, and both should know how to right their ships and stay strong through September. It’s going to be a real test for these guys, but it’s going to inform us a lot about their long-term viability.

What went right and what went wrong in the first half

The All-Star break offers a time for reflection, a chance to hit the pause button and consider everything that’s happened over the last 3 1/2 months. It’s a lot easier to think about the big picture when you don’t have a game to worry about from the night before or another coming the following day.

And when you take a step back and consider the big picture, you find a lot to be pleased about the Nationals’ first half of the season. There were breakthrough performances, the arrival of several rookies including one of the top prospects in the sport and ultimately a better record (44-53) than at this same point one year ago (39-58).

Which isn’t to say everything went swimmingly in NatsTown. There were disappointing performances from a number of players, disruptive injuries and sloppy play at times. This is a team that felt at times like it could be good enough to win more games than it lost, but the record suggests there’s still a way to go before that feels plausible.

So before we move on to what could be a very entertaining – and newsworthy – second half, let’s look back at the things that went right for the Nationals in the first half and the things that went wrong …

RIGHT: THE YOUNG STARTING PITCHERS
Even the most optimistic club official or fan couldn’t have predicted how well the quartet of Jake Irvin, MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz would pitch. (Many wouldn’t have even predicted Parker and Herz would be in the big leagues to begin with.) But this turned into the most important story of the first half. Combine their stats, and those four young starters delivered a 3.91 ERA and 1.238 WHIP while issuing only 2.5 walks per nine innings and surrendered slightly more than one homer per nine innings. And those numbers looked even better a couple weeks ago, before all four labored in their final outings leading up to the break. If they can return refreshed and get back to what they did throughout April, May and June, the Nats will have the makings of a strong rotation for years to come.

Recapping some extras from yesterday's All-Star setting

ARLINGTON, Texas – The All-Stars will walk the red carpet this afternoon in their fanciest attire and try to make it inside Globe Life Field in under 20 sweat stains.

Players will change into their uniforms and take batting practice before tonight’s game. The roof is closed. Not a single complaint beneath it.

The media gets a little clubhouse time rather than pulling quotes on the field. And finally, the Midsummer Classic will commence.

Here are some leftovers from yesterday:

* The All-Star break didn’t force Jordan Westburg into doing much traveling.

Second-half storylines aplenty for Nationals

There was no baseball Wednesday. It’s the first time that was the case since mid-February, before pitchers and catchers reported to Florida and Arizona. It’s nice to have a little break from the action, I suppose, but it’s not something you want to experience for too long.

Fortunately, the season starts up again Friday. The Nationals will open the second half in St. Louis, then head to Chicago after that before returning home. They’ve already played 90 games, more than 55 percent of the season. But there is still much to come before everyone packs up for good after the Oct. 1 finale in Atlanta.

Let’s run through the biggest storylines of the second half for the Nats. Some of these take place on the field. Some of them take place off the field. All of them are significant in one way or another …

PROGRESS FROM THE YOUNG GUYS?
From the outset, this season always was about the development and progression of any young core players who figure into the team’s long-term plan. That means MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray, CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz and Luis García, among others. What can we expect to see from those guys the rest of the way? Can Gore get more consistent and get to, say, 26-28 starts and 130-140 innings before the Nats decide he’s had enough? Can Gray continue what he did in the first half and finish with 32-34 starts and 170-plus innings for the first time? Can Abrams stick in the leadoff position (he looked good in his first three games there)? Can Ruiz start getting some of those hard-hit balls to fall, and show real progress behind the plate? Can García get more selective at the plate and more consistent at second base? There’s very little else that can happen on the field the rest of the season that matters more than all that.

WHO GETS TRADED AT THE DEADLINE?
We are less than three weeks away from the Aug. 1 trade deadline, and though the Nationals aren’t going to be headliners like they were the last two years, they could still be quite active. Jeimer Candelario seems the likeliest candidate to be dealt, but can Corey Dickerson do enough to make himself worthwhile to a contender as well? Is Mike Rizzo willing to part with any or all of his controllable, late-inning relievers (Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, Carl Edwards Jr.)? Is Lane Thomas part of the plan moving forward or a prime “sell high” candidate? And would there actually be a taker out there for Patrick Corbin? Rizzo may not be able to reshape his entire farm system like he did last summer, but he can make moves that will benefit the club in the long run if he plays his cards right.

What went right and what went wrong in the first half

The Nationals entered the 2022 season with modest expectations. Such is life when you lost 107 games the previous year and spent a grand total of $17 million on free agents over the winter.

When they reached the All-Star break this week, the Nats found themselves with a 36-54 record, which equates to a 65-97 record over a full season. So while that doesn’t seem like anything to get excited about, it would still represent a 10-game improvement from 2022, and that’s not nothing.

Which isn’t to say a whole lot of things went well in the first half. There were a few positive developments, including some very significant ones. But there were some legitimate negatives as well, some which could threaten the viability of this franchise returning to contention within the next two years.

Let’s take stock of both the good and the bad to date. Here’s what went right for the Nationals in the first half, and what went wrong …

RIGHT: YOUNG STARTING PITCHERS
If you could’ve picked only one positive development for this team back on Opening Day, wouldn’t you have picked MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray? So much of this season was about their progression (plus Cade Cavalli, who unfortunately won’t be able to progress until 2024 due to Tommy John surgery in March). And while it hasn’t been a straight, upward line for both young starters, the arrow has ultimately pointed up more than down. Gray has been one of the most improved pitchers in the league, lowering his ERA from 5.02 to 3.41 even though his WHIP has gone up and his strikeout rate has gone down a bit. He’s been successful because he’s kept the ball in the park and because he’s been able to pitch out of jams. An All-Star berth (and a 1-2-3 inning of relief in Tuesday night’s game) is merely the cherry on top. Gore, meanwhile, is still a work-in-progress with a 4.42 ERA and 1.461 WHIP. But when he’s good, he’s as good as anybody, with four starts so far that featured one or two runs allowed and at least nine strikeouts recorded. And don’t overlook Jake Irvin, a pleasant surprise who wasn’t on anybody’s radar but now looks like a potential back-of-the-rotation starter for the future.

Wood, House to represent Nats at All-Star Futures Game

The Nationals will have two of their top prospects representing the organization at next month’s All-Star Futures Game.

Outfielder James Wood and third baseman Brady House have been selected to represent the Nats in the 2023 SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game, the announcement coming tonight on MLB Network.

Wood, 20, is the No. 5 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America and the No. 6 prospect per MLBPipeline.com’s recently updated rankings. As the Nats’ top overall prospect per both publications, he leads the Nats’ minor league system in home runs (12), RBIs (52), slugging percentage (.536), OPS (tied for first, .903), triples (six), extra-base hits (33) and total bases (128).

From April 25 to May 28, Wood posted a 30-game on-base streak, the longest active streak in all of Minor League Baseball at the time. He hit .299 with a .415 on-base percentage and a .626 slugging percentage during that stretch.

In 66 games between High-A Wilmington and Double-A Harrisburg, Wood has hit .272 with 15 doubles, six triples, 12 homers, 52 RBIs, 37 walks, 13 stolen bases and 46 runs scored. He was promoted to Harrisburg on May 28, an early promotion compared to some of the Nats’ top prospects of the past. In the week leading up his promotion to Double-A, Wood went 9-for-19 (.474) with a double, triple, three home runs, seven RBIs, four walks, two stolen bases and eight runs scored in his last five games with the Blue Rocks.

As break ends, Nats try to shift focus back to field

PHOENIX – The All-Star break should be a time for rest and relaxation, a chance to get away from it all and clear your mind before gearing back up for the second half of the season. For the Nationals, this All-Star break wasn’t at all about rest, and nobody was able to relax.

The last four days have seen the franchise under the bright spotlight of the baseball world, all because of the sudden possibility Juan Soto could be dealt before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, with just about every other team in the sport trying to figure out if it has enough top prospects who could be packaged together to get the Nats to say yes.

There also, of course, was the MLB Draft, which began Sunday night and continued through Tuesday, using up a large chunk of front offices’ time and energy during what traditionally has been a welcome break from the grind.

Now, though, the break is over. The second half begins tonight. And for the Nationals, that means the focus potentially turns back to the field. Which isn’t necessarily a good thing.

Let’s not forget these guys lost 15 of their last 17 games heading into the All-Star break. And one of those wins came Sunday in the first-half finale, in a bullpen game started by Erasmo Ramirez against a Braves team that seemed content to just coast into the break.

Should Soto participate in the Home Run Derby again?

We saw this happen last year.

Everyone was panicking because Juan Soto’s overall offensive numbers weren’t up to his superstar standards about one-third of the way through the season. Then around mid-June, he started heating up at the plate and went into the All-Star break as one of the game’s hottest hitters.

People debated whether or not he should participate in the Home Run Derby, an event known for ruining hitters’ swings, after finally rediscovering his rhythm at the plate. But Soto did it anyway, hitting 46 home runs before being eliminated in the semifinals by eventual champion Pete Alonso.

“This is the time of year where I think he does start heating up,” Davey Martinez said of Soto. “I don't know why that is, because he always has his streaks in the beginning when he hits the ball really well. But he's swinging the bat really well right now.”

We’re now seeing almost the same story play out in 2022, which again brings up the question: Should Soto participate in the Home Run Derby?

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