What could be coming in starting pitching on the Orioles' farm

If you look at the Roster Resource section on FanGraphs.com, they list their current projected pitching rotations for each club. It might surprise some to note that the Tampa Bay Rays, a team known for producing good pitchers and solid pitching development, does not have one homegrown pitcher listed among its top five.

Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Civale and Shane Baz were added via trades, Zach Eflin in free agency and Zack Littell was added on waivers.

Of the O’s listed five, just John Means and Grayson Rodriguez were drafted by the Orioles. Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin – listed fifth right now – all came via trades.

So, for the top two AL East teams from last year, 80 percent of their current rotations came from outside their own organization.

The bigger message is get good pitching wherever and whenever you can. At the end of the year, they count only wins, not wins generated mostly by homegrown talent.

Extra Orioles mailbag questions

Leftovers aren’t just for the days after Thanksgiving.

I had some extra questions in last week’s mailbag. I’d prefer green bean casserole, but maybe later.

The portion is modest, unlike your server. Just a couple handfuls of inquiries that didn’t make the first one.

Also, my mailbag serves homemade stuffing and your mailbag uses a box that expired three years ago.

Who will be the top two Orioles in stolen bases in 2024 and who will get the most innings at third base?
Two questions packed into one. Sort of like a casserole. I can’t make bold predictions without knowing the Opening Day roster. Jorge Mateo and Cedric Mullins were 1-2 this season, but Mateo appeared in 116 games. I wouldn’t expect the same in 2024. The second part is easier because I can just choose between Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg. I’ll get back to you.

César Prieto, Justin Armbruester, Jud Fabian among a host of minor league promotions

CHICAGO – The Orioles minor league rosters are in for some big changes very soon. According to a club source, eight players are about to be promoted and they include five players currently ranked among the O’s top 30 prospects list via Baseball America.

Moving from Double-A Bowie to Triple-A Norfolk are infielder César Prieto, right-handed pitcher Justin Armbruester and righty reliever Wandisson Charles.

Moving from High-A Aberdeen to Bowie are pitchers Alex Pham, Keagan Gillies and Jean Pinto and outfielder Jud Fabian.

Moving from Low Single-A Delmarva to Aberdeen is right-handed pitcher Juan Nunez.

Fabian is currently ranked as the Orioles’ No. 13 prospect by Baseball America and No. 15 via MLBPipeline.com. In 55 games with the IronBirds, he is batting .281/.392/.490/.882 with 13 doubles, nine homers, 35 runs, 19 steals and 43 RBIs. He was the No. 67 overall draft pick in 2022 out of the University of Florida.

Using a host of "bulk innings" pitchers, Bowie tops Eastern League in rotation ERA

BOWIE, Md. – Most teams in pro baseball use a five-man rotation, sometimes six, but 10 is a bit much. However the Orioles like to sometimes essentially use two starting pitchers or bulk inning pitchers in one game and that has been on display often this year at Double-A Bowie.

And while the Baysox have not gotten off to a great start at 6-13, it has not been about shaky pitching. The opposite has been true. Bowie was rained out Sunday but ranks third in the Eastern League in team ERA at 3.43

But the Baysox lead the Eastern League in rotation ERA at 2.60 and also rank first among starter WHIP at 1.06 and batting average against by starting pitchers at .191.

And the Baysox have had nine different pitchers start games this year and nine times have had games where two pitchers threw three innings or more. There was another game or two where they just missed as a second pitcher went 2 2/3. And 10 pitchers on their staff have had at least one outing of three innings or more.

The "bulk innings" pitchers, my term not theirs, are getting their work in, developing their pitches and thriving on the stat sheet.

On farm, pitcher Justin Armbruester soaks up the data and is taking strides forward

Orioles-helmet-black

He was not a high draft pick, but maybe Double-A Bowie right-hander Justin Armbruester, their Opening Day starter, was the perfect pick for the Orioles organization and its pitching development program.

He entered an organization that under the Mike Elias front office has become heavily data and technology driven. In Armbruester, they added a cerebral pitcher who loves to soak up the data and analytics. He seems to want to use every advantage and resource available to him that he can get his hands on. Beyond the technology the Orioles provide him, he even keeps his own notebooks on opponent hitters and even makes notes on ballpark factors everywhere he goes.

Last year we started to see where a pitcher driven to get better, started to indeed do just that. Between High Single-A Aberdeen and Double-A Bowie, he went 6-2 with a 3.85 ERA over 117 innings. He walked 34, fanned 126, posted a 1.07 WHIP and opponent batters hit just .213 off him.

That was a solid year that landed him at the No. 20 spot on the latest Baseball America O’s top 30 prospects list. He is still sort of flying under the radar a bit, but less than he was. On Opening Night for Bowie at Hartford last Thursday, he threw five scoreless innings on five hits with one walk and five strikeouts.

Then no doubt he went back to work in his between starts bullpen sessions, using everything around him to try and keep getting better.

Cedric Mullins on improved hitting vs. lefty pitching, plus a big night on the farm

When it comes to facing left-handed pitchers, O’s center fielder Cedric Mullins, no longer a switch-hitter, has had success in the past batting left-on-left.

But the hits were not coming to him very often against lefty pitchers last year, when he hit .209/.265/.313/.578 against left-handers. That was very different from his solid numbers of 2021, when he produced a .277 batting average and .788 OPS left-on-left.

So Mullins’ winter focus was on getting back to stats like those in this 2023 season.

“Just really kind of dug deep into how some of my at-bats went last year,” he said this week at Globe Life Field. “Kind of getting a sense of what guys were trying to do to me and kind of make adjustments from there. Tried to simulate as much as I possibly could (this winter).”

The deep dive included a closer look at how those southpaws were getting him out.

Delayed Orioles home opener set for today with Kremer on the mound

The threat of severe thunderstorms can’t ruin the Orioles’ home opener this afternoon.

Aaron Judge, maybe, but not thunderstorms.

The temperature in Baltimore reached 85 degrees yesterday but is likely to stay in the 50s today. No rain or hail or high winds, though. Cloudy and playable.

Gates open at noon. Severna Park native Parijita Bastola will perform the national anthem prior to the game. She was a contestant on season 22 of NBC’s “The Voice,” and also performed at Governor Wes Moore’s inauguration earlier this year.

Moore and children Mia and James will throw out the ceremonial first pitches.

A closer look at the pitching success for the Aberdeen IronBirds

The Orioles high Single-A Aberdeen affiliate continues to roll with a record of 33-16 (.673) which is the best mark in the South Atlantic League and the second-best among 30 high Single-A teams throughout the minors.

The IronBirds have a roster dotted with some big names and one that features two of the O’s top 10 rated prospects in outfielder Colton Cowser and infielder Coby Mayo.

Lesser known with players more unheralded and mostly unranked is the Aberdeen pitching staff that has produced a team ERA of 3.76 to rank fourth in the league. In May when Aberdeen was 17-7, its pitchers ERA of 3.21 ranked first in the league.

I recently talked with Aberdeen pitching coach Forrest Herrman about some of his “length” pitchers - those that are getting the most innings whether that comes as a starter or out of the bullpen. This group has done a strong job all year for Aberdeen.

Herrmann also is new to the Orioles, in his first year with the organization. He was the Seattle Mariners pitching strategist for their entire organization in 2019 and was pitching coach for the Cincinnati Reds at Single-A Daytona Beach in 2021. He has his own youthful look going and could easily be mistaken for a pitcher on the team and not a coach. But he’s also got plenty he brings to the organization and he has past ties to both Driveline Baseball and to the P3 Premier Pitching Performance center in Missouri where he spent some time working with current O’s pitcher John Means.

Minor league notes on Burns, Armbruester and more

Gunnar Henderson Bowie smiling

The high Single-A Aberdeen IronBirds have gotten off to a hot start, producing the best record of any minor league team in full-season ball. That covers 120 clubs. There are many reasons for that and just one is the play of shortstop Collin Burns.

With some more high-profile names on that IronBirds' roster, Burns can fly under the radar. But the 21-year-old lefty batter is hitting .333/.381/.422/ with an OPS of .803 in 24 games. Burns has six stolen bases, eighth doubles and 12 RBIs. He has low walk (5) and strikeout (15) totals.

A sixth-round pick out of Tulane from the 2021 draft, Burns has been solid for Aberdeen.

“He’s another guy that has had a lot of quality at-bats, is getting on base and hitting balls hard,” Orioles director of player development Matt Blood said in a recent interview. “And he’s playing quality defense. A nice pickup for the org. He plays shortstop and even some left field. We like to get guys moved around.”

Burns, 21, hit .305 in 24 games after the draft last season between the Florida Complex League O's and low Single-A Delmarva.

More on the Orioles' fall instructional camp

More on the Orioles' fall instructional camp
The Orioles released the names of the 50 players invited to their fall instructional league camp in Sarasota, Fla. An interesting mix that highlights the organization's commitment to the amateur draft and international market - two of the most powerful fuels to get the rebuild moving in the right direction. What did we learn from the names on the roster and accompanying information? * Players recovering from injuries or surgeries are progressing to the point where they can be participants in...