Now that we know the roster for the upcoming Birdland Caravan, we can formulate a plan for interaction and, if you’re in the media, to conduct interviews.

I wrote last month that I hoped for a Félix Bautista sighting, but he isn’t on the list. We’ll just assume he’s feeling good and his recovery is going well after Tommy John surgery. And, of course, he’s working hard to come back.

Also, no Kyle Bradish to talk about finishing fourth in Cy Young voting in the American League. We’ll save it for spring training.

Anthony Santander won't be there, preventing the media from calling him a "trade chip" in person.

You’ve already been told about Adley Rutschman’s previous commitment to speak at an event at Oregon State, and Gunnar Henderson’s commitment to receive his AL Rookie of the Year award in New York. They send their regrets and hope to see fans in Sarasota.

The ball is dropping soon to signal a new year, and improvements in the Orioles’ defense have robbed me of my annual quip about popups.

This isn’t the 2018 team that ranked near or at the bottom in pretty much every advanced metric. Or the 2003 team that was guilty of a misplayed grounder, missed cutoff man, botched rundown and fumbled double play ball – in the first inning in Toronto. True story.

Third baseman Tony Batista had lots of power, but also 20 errors and a .950 fielding percentage.

Makes one yearn for Wilson Betemit. Horror story.

Orioles left fielders over the years have included Curt Blefary, Jeff Stone, Lonnie Smith and Pete Incaviglia. The adventures with the deeper wall and 90-degree angle would have been legendary.

NASHVILLE – Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias is arriving this morning at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center, transferring some of his phone conversations to face-to-face discussions. Matt Blood, vice president of player development and domestic scouting, Sig Mejdal, vice president and assistant general manager, and Koby Perez, vice president of international scouting and operations, were counted among team officials who flew into Nashville yesterday.

The Winter Meetings are underway.

The multiple lobbies, miles in between them and hordes of families wandering through the hotel make it challenging to decipher the buzz. It’s beginning to look a lot like chaos in this holiday-themed establishment.

I like to pass along what I’m hearing, with the caveat that it isn’t necessarily confirmed. Just what scouts, agents and others in the industry are saying about the Orioles. Their hot takes on the club's business.

The interest in trading for Dylan Cease is legitimate. The Orioles are among the teams in discussions with the White Sox.

While we wait for something to happen in baseball free agency (it's been pretty quiet thus far), today I take a quick look back at some recent stories written and discussed here.

If the Orioles, as stated, seek a pitcher they can place in the top half of their rotation, they could do worse than free agent right-hander Sonny Gray.

A recent New York post article projected he could get a three-year deal worth $65 million. 

Gray is coming off a fantastic year with the Twins, during which he went 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 184 innings over 32 starts. He ranked second in the American League and third in the majors in ERA, and was fourth in the AL in average against (.226), third in OPS (.607 behind Kyle Bradish at .605) and fifth in groundball rate.

Gray just turned 34, a number that worries some when thinking about signing him to a multi-year deal. 

The next important date on baseball’s calendar arrives today with teams required to tender or non-tender players eligible for arbitration.

You probably memorized the list of 17 Orioles, an unusually high total, but here it is again, with MLBTradeRumors using its model to project salaries:

Anthony Santander: $7.4 million to $12.7 million
Danny Coulombe: $1 million to $2.2 million
John Means: $2.975 million to $5.93 million
Ryan O’Hearn: $1.4 million to $3 million
Cedric Mullins: $4.1 million to $6.4 million
Austin Hays: $3.2 million to $6.1 million
Dillon Tate: $1.5 million to $1.5 million
Jorge Mateo: $2 million to $2.9 million
Ryan Mountcastle: $738,400 to $4.2 million
Cionel Pérez: $732,300 to $1.3 million
Cole Irvin: $737,600 to $1.8 million
Keegan Akin: $731,100 to $800,000
Jacob Webb: $720,000 to $1.2 million
Ramón Urías: $734,700 to $2 million
Tyler Wells: $732,400 to $2.3 million
Ryan McKenna: $725,800 to $740,000
Sam Hilliard: $750,000 to $1.1 million

Santander is going to draw trade interest again and therefore find himself immersed in rumors. He’s a slam-dunk tender, of course. That’s the easy part.

Harder is finding a way to squeeze Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser onto a 26-man roster without removing an outfielder. But so would be replacing Santander’s power and run production.

For a time in June, Orioles left fielder Austin Hays was leading the American League in batting average. He was hitting as high as .327 on June 20. He didn’t finish above .300 but still wound up tied for 12^th in the AL in average.

Over 144 games and 566 plate appearances, Hays batted .275/.325/.444/.769 with 36 doubles, two triples, 16 homers, 76 runs, five steals and 67 RBIs. His OPS+ of 114 ranked sixth among O’s everyday players and was his best mark in the three full seasons he has played, surpassing the 107 from 2021 and 105 from last year.

So Hays had an overall solid 2023 season, but it was another one where his stats fell off in the second half. That happened to him in 2022 also, but it was still a 2023 season where he produced career highs in doubles, runs, hits (143), extra-base hits (54) and multi-hit games (40). He tied for ninth in the AL in doubles and was 29^th in OPS.

In the first half of this year, before he made his first All-Star game appearance and started in center field, Hays batted .314 with an .853 OPS. And that fell to 228/.667 in the second half. His OPS in 2022 dropped from .779 to .626 half to half.

During spring training this year Hays said he got pull happy at times late in the 2022 season and he needed to stay with an up-the-middle and gap-to-gap approach.

Austin Hays didn’t commit an error this season. He also didn’t receive a Gold Glove.

The Guardians’ Steven Kwan won his second award in left field, with the announcement made tonight on ESPN. Catcher Adley Rutschman and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle also were finalists, but they lost to Rangers teammates Jonah Heim and Nathaniel Lowe, respectively.

The Orioles drafted Heim in the fourth round in 2013 and traded him to the Rays three years later for Steve Pearce.

The Blue Jays’ Daulton Varsho also was a finalist in left, but Kwan is a back-to-back recipient. Hays was trying to become the first Orioles outfielder to win since Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in 2014.

Hays also failed to become the first left fielder since Rawlings began awarding Gold Gloves for each outfield position in 2011.

Maybe even the Pecota projection system will expect the Orioles to be good in the 2024 season. Yeah, crazy talk, I know.

When the 2024 season begins the Orioles will have an opponent that is hard to define and one that has no win-loss record or playoff appearances. There are no advanced stats or metrics for it. It is expectations.

For the first time in a long time the team will be expected to do well and maybe even favored to win the AL East. This is uncharted territory for the Orioles in recent years.

Even the 2023 team, which had a stated goal to take the 83 wins from the year before, build on that and make the playoffs, had plenty of doubters.

Ryan Mountcastle was drafted by the Orioles as a shortstop in 2015, the 36^th-overall selection out of a Florida high school with bat skills that figured to stamp his ticket to the majors. Evaluators assured that he’d hit at any level.

But where to play him?

The arm didn’t work at short, leading some members of the organization to quickly push for a position change. Others were slower to concede.

Valuable time was lost, and that created some friction. As if more of it was needed behind the scenes.

The Orioles decided to try him at third base full-time in 2018 after his 16 starts in the Arizona Fall League. They introduced him to left field the following year at Triple-A Norfolk, setting up his major league debut in 2020. But the career-changer came with the commitment to first base, where he made 82 starts in 2021 and 123 in ‘22.

The Orioles will try again for their first multiple Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners since 2014.

They have three candidates this year – catcher Adley Rutschman, first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and left fielder Austin Hays.

Rutschman is pitted against the Rangers’ Jonah Heim and the Blue Jays’ Alejandro Kirk. Mountcastle joins the Yankees’ Anthony Rizzo and the Rangers’ Nathaniel Lowe. Hays joins the Blue Jays’ Daulton Varsho and the Guardians’ Steven Kwan.

Winners are determined from voting by the managers and coaches in each league who are prohibited from choosing their own players. A sabermetric component accounts for about 25 percent of the vote total.

The results will be announced on Nov. 5 beginning at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN’s “Baseball Tonight.”

Matt Swartz at MLBTradeRumors.com created a model to project salaries for arbitration-eligible players, which the site has published for 13 years. Is it 100 percent accurate? Of course not, because that would be impossible. But he nails some and comes darn close with others.

That's to be expected with an algorithm that, as the site describes it, “looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation.” We’re also warned against using it as a “scorecard.” But does that stop us?

Of course not.

Anyway, the Orioles have an astounding 16 players eligible for arbitration, tied with the Rays and Mets for second most behind the Yankees’ 17. My unscientific projection is there’s zero chance that the club retains all of them.

Anthony Santander’s salary could jump from $7.4 million to $12.7 million. Starter Kyle Gibson led the club this season at $10 million, since the Yankees carried the bulk of Aaron Hicks’ salary and the Mets handled the bulk of James McCann’s.

ARLINGTON, Texas - For the Orioles there was sort of a clear theme to their postgame interviews last night after the Game 3 loss to Texas. The Rangers took an early 6-0 lead on their way to a 7-1 win and a series sweep in the American League Division Series.

Proud of a very good season and AL East championship. But also hoping and truly believing this is just the first step for this talented group of players.

They got swept three straight by Texas and the country didn't get to see the Orioles that we saw most of the year. Take the experience and learn from it. Use it as motivation to return next season and go farther.

"We have a lot of guys who have never been to the postseason before. So, this hurts and it's okay to hurt," manager Brandon Hyde said. "It's okay to have this kind of fuel to your fire in the off-season. It's going to take a while for us to get over this a little bit. But I think our guys will come in hunting and hungry in spring training. The guys coming back, especially the young guys, know what this feels like, know what it tastes like, and it sucks. If they did soak it in a little bit, they're going to be better for it down the road."

Outfielder Austin Hays expressed similar sentiments. I asked him when he has time this offseason to look back on the 2023 season, what will come to mind?

ARLINGTON, Texas – Some games are called “must win” but they really are not. But you can use those words for the Orioles tonight. After an amazing season, a surprise (to many) AL East championship and 101 wins, they need one more tonight to force a Game 4 against Texas in the American League Division Series.

In September the Orioles twice lost the first two games of key four-game series, both at home versus Tampa Bay and at Cleveland, and yet won the third and fourth games to split those series. This time they have to do that and one better.

It started on the mound in those earlier games against the Rays and Guardians. In the four wins, O’s pitching allowed zero, four, one and one run.

Catcher Adley Rutschman was asked before Monday’s workout at Globe Life Field about the club’s ability this year to put losses behind them quickly and how they do that?

“I think our team is really process-oriented,” said Rutschman. “So, each game is a new game, and we try to treat it as such. And you know, learn from anything from the day before and then move on. Our guys do a good job of banding together and trying to just focus on the here and now.”

Next stop Arlington, Tex. That is where the Orioles are headed looking for a win. What they hope is the first of three in a row over the next five days to save their season.

The Texas Rangers ended the regular season losing three of four at Seattle to let the AL West title get away. They were 40-41 on the road this year. None of that mattered as first they took out the 99-win Tampa Bay Rays, winning two on the road. And now they have a 2-0 lead in games in a best-of-five on the 101 win Orioles. Winning two in Baltimore.

In Game 1, the Orioles didn't hit enough. In Game 2 they didn't pitch well enough. Not nearly losing 11-8. The 11 runs allowed is the most they have ever given up in their postseason history, which amounts to 94 games since 1966.

They walked 11 batters and six of them scored and all 11 helped the Rangers to the win.

In the quiet of the postgame clubhouse, Gunnar Henderson who went 2-for-4 with a homer, expressed confidence they have another three-game win streak in them.

The Orioles knew in advance that they wanted to keep 14 position players and reduce their pitching staff to 12 for the American League Division Series.

They weren’t expecting John Means to be missing, his elbow soreness after Thursday’s simulated game creating an opening for reliever Bryan Baker.

Plan ahead and prepare to pivot.

Manager Brandon Hyde didn’t confirm that Means was going to start prior to the elbow issue, calling him “a candidate.” And he didn’t reveal who would take the mound for Game 3 Tuesday night in Arlington.

Dean Kremer and Kyle Gibson are locked into the rotation based on Means’ disappearance from it. One of them seemed to be headed to the bullpen.

As it turns out, maybe the opponent in the American League Division Series doesn’t really matter to the Orioles.

The front office, manager Brandon Hyde and his coaching staff could argue that point based on the roster decisions shaped by the team in the other dugout, but the players sound like they just want to play.

They gathered again this afternoon at Camden Yards, the third different start time in three days, to perform some drills and engage in the latest simulated game with a plate umpire.

No fans allowed today after a few thousand walked through Gate E yesterday and cranked up the energy level. It felt sluggish today by comparison.

Infielders caught popups and the outfielders shagged fly balls from the machine stationed at home plate. Catchers worked on their throwing. Very similar to spring training but without the extra fields.

Next stop for the Orioles – the MLB postseason. Their next game will be Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Saturday Oct. 7 at Baltimore’s Camden Yards against the Tampa Bay-Texas wild card series winner.

They are three wins from the League Championship Series, seven from the World Series and 11 from winning the World Series for the first time since 1983.

They will enter the playoffs with a roster devoid of much playoff experience. Manager Brandon Hyde though believes his club has indeed had big-game experience dating to late last season. And he believes it will help a lot coming up.

“I think it started last year with all the close games that we won and the type of games that we played, (and those) benefitted us big time this year,” said Hyde. “We’ve won a ton of one-run games (going 30-16) and won a lot of close games late. I think it’s been beneficial for the regular season and feel like we’ve been playing playoff-type games. Especially these last couple of weeks. The four games against Tampa, three games in Houston. Feel like we needed to win those two in Cleveland. Felt the guys wanted that and needed that. So, I feel like we’ve been playing some high-pressure games and I hope that benefits us in the postseason.

“But you never really know. There are a lot of guys without postseason experience. I do believe in the makeup of our club, I think it’s a real confident group. The young guys that have never been in the playoffs, they play with a ton of confidence. I don’t think they’ll be shaken by how different postseason baseball is.”

From 110 losses to 100 wins in two years is pretty remarkable. The Orioles haven't done it yet, but their next win, and they would love for it to come tonight, will put them at 100 wins and also wrap up the American League East championship.

The Orioles have won AL East titles previously in 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1979, 1983, 1997 and 2014. 

The last time they won the AL East, it ended a 17-year drought and this time it would be happening nine years later.

It has been a remarkable turnaround and no doubt some around Birdland may have even just about conceded the division to Tampa Bay when the Rays played so well and won so many games early in the year.

But tonight, the O's can become the sixth team in club history with 100 wins and the first since the 2014 team to win the division.

One more night.

Maybe that’s how much longer the Orioles must wait to clinch the American League East for the first time since 2014.

A night when they don’t need anyone’s help.

Adley Rutschman homered, singled and drove in three runs, the bullpen retired all 10 batters behind starter Grayson Rodriguez, and the Orioles won 5-1 before an announced crowd of 24,278 at Camden Yards.

Tampa Bay defeated the Red Sox 5-0 to leave the magic number at one, and fans checking on ticket availability for Thursday night.

It is a storyline that is surfacing often now in the Orioles clubhouse. There are several players in there that were on the team two years ago that lost 110 games. Now they are on a team that might win 100 games.

Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Ryan McKenna, Ramón Urías and Jorge Mateo were position players on both clubs to name several, but not every player that fits this bill.

Hays played in 131 games that 2021 season and, of course, is a key part of the winning this year. Winning that will take the Orioles to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. And they have a magic number of three for their first American League East title since 2014.

“This is everything you dream of,” Hays said this afternoon before the series opener with Washington. “You get to the big leagues and then you try to figure out what you need to do to be on the field and get playing time. Then you kind of learn how to be an everyday player and stick here. Once you have done that, the focus turns to what do I need to do to win? What do we have to do to win?

“So we were able to last through those 100-loss seasons and kind of just find our way into the big leagues and figure out what we needed to do to stay here. Now we’re a big part of this team and it’s special to still be here going through this. Growing as the players that we have.”