The Orioles were focused a year ago on finding a new closer and they reached agreement with veteran Craig Kimbrel on the final day of the Winter Meetings, an unusually aggressive act for a team that usually returned home with a minor league signing and Rule 5 pick.

Their No. 1 starter came later, with executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias trading for Corbin Burnes on Feb. 1. Also a bold move that signaled further changes to how the Orioles conducted business beyond the rebuild.

Otherwise, the Orioles addressed depth and created competition at multiple positions and found some insurance with second basemen Kolten Wong, who didn’t make the club, and Tony Kemp, who did for a brief period.

The current offseason doesn’t find the Orioles shopping in the same closing market. They expect Félix Bautista to be full-go in camp and back in his usual role on Opening Day, though he might be handled with more care at the beginning because he hasn’t pitched since August 2023.

“We are realistic about the fact he’s coming off surgery,” Elias said in last month’s video call. “We don’t want to overly pressurize him. We are going to want to treat him with a little extra care given the fact that he didn’t pitch (this) year and he’s coming off surgery. So, way too soon to announce roles and things like that. And I think it’s just going to be a matter of how sharp he is. But we want to give him the margin for an error that a guy coming off surgery deserves.

It has been a somewhat slow Hot Stove season thus far in terms of signings. But the stove may be really about to get hot.

The biggest free agent prize – outfielder Juan Soto – may be close to signing and it could happen during the Winter Meetings that begin on Monday. He has been the most talked about player this offseason and that will hold up until he signs.

Will the dam burst after that?

This is what many in the industry seem to believe. Once Soto is off the market, teams may pivot to outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández and really kick off the pursuit of position players. Big dollar teams that miss out on Soto, could move back to the high-end starting pitcher market chasing the likes of Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

Where does this leave the Orioles?

We’ve entered a fresh week and the Orioles, like so many other teams, are waiting to make that huge strike in free agency or via a trade. The 40-man roster underwent some adjustments. Arbitration-eligible players were tendered contracts. Some minor league depth moves have been completed, with more to come.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias appeared yesterday on MLB Network Radio, and he barely heard his introduction before a host playfully asked when he would announce his first big move of the offseason.

“You want to do it right now?” Elias asked, playing along with the bit. “I’ve got to make one first.”

Talks were held at the general managers meetings in San Antonio and will heat up again at next month’s Winter Meetings in Dallas. Elias is talking to other executives and to agents. But the shopping list remains the same.

“We’re working on it,” he said.

If the Orioles do not re-sign right-hander Corbin Burnes and are not in the final hunt for lefty Max Fried and find that Roki Sasaki gets posted but signs with another team, there is still another stud pitcher out there to potentially sign.

He is a two-time Cy Young Award winner with huge strikeout numbers and was the best pitcher in the majors last season starting July 9. Did we mention he does not have a qualifying offer attached to him and no draft picks would be lost for signing him?

He is lefty Blake Snell, who in, what could be his one year with San Francisco, went 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA over 20 starts and 104 innings.

A Scott Boras client, Snell had designs on a $200 million dollar or more deal last winter via free agency. But he did not get that and signed very late, during training, with the Giants for a two-year deal and $62 million. It included an opt out after this past season and he has taken that.

Snell got off to a terrible start after signing late. He had a 9.51 ERA after his first six starts and made injured list stints with a left adductor strain and left groin strain. 

The baseball offseason is about to really heat up. Some big name free agents like Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras will meet with teams this week to get the ball rolling.

There seemed to be a glacial pace of free agency last year and maybe it all moves faster this time around. The Winter Meetings are in early December.

The general manager meetings were last week in San Antonio which gave all teams a chance to begin to lay groundwork for the next few weeks and months in talking with other teams and with player agents.

During an interview on MLB Network, O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias discussed the club’s top priorities this winter.

“Well, we’ve got a really strong core returning,” said Elias. “We’ve got a young nucleus that I’d stack up there with any in baseball and that’s a good place to start. I think we have a lot of good rotation pieces and bullpen guys coming back. But we definitely are looking to augment the roster and add to the team.

It is the time of year where free agency in baseball takes center stage in the sport. Free agents can now sign with any club and it may not be long before some players do sign with new clubs.

It can be an exciting time of the year for fans – they track which players will the O's pursue, which players can they actually add and which players will they actually add?

Over the next few weeks and months, we’ll present information on this blog about some free agents. Not because we feel the team should sign them or will, but because they make sense as an O’s target. None of this means they will end up here as all 30 teams have a shot at these players.

Right now, money talks and other things, I hear, walk.

If the Orioles do lose free agent Anthony Santander to another club, they could replace him with another free agent corner outfielder in righty-hitter Teoscar Hernández.

If we are to believe various free agent predictions, to re-sign pitcher Corbin Burnes, the Orioles are going to need to fork out around $200 million dollars, maybe more. 

Five outlets – MLBTradeRumors.com, ESPN, FanGraphs.com, and two from The Athletic – all predict Burnes gets a seven-year contract. That would take him through his age 36 season. On the low end, FanGraphs has Burnes getting $196 million and on the high end $247 by Jim Bowden of The Athletic. Several outlets ranked Burnes as the No. 2 free agent behind Juan Soto.

Soto’s projections by the way range from 12 years and $540 million to 15 years and $622 million. But you get a shuffle with that remember. 

That brings us to O's outfielder Anthony Santander for which we see a wide range of predictions. On the low end, ESPN predicts a three-year deal for $69 million. MLBTradeRumors.com goes with four years and $80 million. FanGraphs has him getting five years and $100 million while The Athletic goes with five years and $105 million. Jim Bowden has it six years and $142 million.

That is some range – from $69 to $142 million. The low-end predictions here seem to be in the Orioles wheelhouse, and I would imagine are very doable for the club. But would the Orioles go five years and $100 million for a player that ranked third in the majors with 44 homers?

The offseason gives media a chance to make early predictions on free-agent signings, trades and other activity while waiting for actual news.

Don’t pay any attention to early World Series odds. No team has a set roster in November.

Can we at least wait until spring training?

OK, if you’re going to press me, the Orioles make the playoffs in 2025. That’s all I’ve got.

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden has Corbin Burnes and Max Fried signing with the Mets. I never considered Burnes as a realistic possibility for the Orioles, but I also stress how new ownership dumps us in uncharted hot stove waters.

With spring training games beginning this week – Saturday for the Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium versus Boston – some big-name free agents remain unsigned.

We have seen big names sign big dollar deals before with the season only weeks away. The Phillies signed Bryce Harper to a 13-year deal worth $330 million on March 2, 2019.

This can’t be good for the game or the players, wondering where they will be playing this year as teams are already in camp and games are about to begin.

The management of the sport would like a signing deadline of some sort – a time when free agent signings come to an end. Much like the mid-summer trade deadline. The players association is against this and really against anything that they believe limits the players free market in any way. This would not limit their earning power, but it would limit the time they would have to sign a deal.

As of last night, outfielder Cody Bellinger, infielder Matt Chapman and pitchers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, some of the biggest names in this free agent class, were unsigned.

The Orioles don’t need more reminders that their bullpen has a giant hole in the back. They’ve felt the impact of losing Félix Bautista. They’ve made late-inning relief a priority in the offseason.

But Bautista’s importance to the club, how much he dominated hitters this summer, was discussed again last night with his selection as the American League’s top reliever.

Bautista received the Mariano Rivera Award, with Milwaukee’s Devin Williams getting the National League’s version named for Trevor Hoffman.

A six-man panel of former relievers, including Rivera and Hoffman, handled the voting, and Bautista was the unanimous choice.

This is the latest honor for the Orioles, after Gunner Henderson was chosen as the AL’s Rookie of the Year, Brandon Hyde as Manager of the Year and Mike Elias as Executive of the Year. Henderson and Adley Rutschman won Silver Slugger Awards.

Former Orioles general manager Andy MacPhail used to say pitching is “expensive and fragile.” Two cautionary words about spending big for a hurler.

That didn’t keep the Philadelphia Phillies from keeping one of their homegrown pitchers on Sunday and the expensive part was definitely on display. Over the last three years, right-hander Aaron Nola is 32-31 with a 4.09 ERA. But the Phillies, who drafted him seventh overall out of LSU in 2014, retained him Sunday for $172 million over seven years. Reporters said the deal does not include any option years or opt-outs.

National reporters like Jon Heyman and Jeff Passan reported that Nola could have gotten more money elsewhere and also that the Braves were in hot pursuit. And having a division rival chasing your player obviously helped pushed the Phillies to get that deal to the finish line.

And while Nola was not at the very top of this free agent pitching class, he was ranked as the No. 5 free agent by MLBTradeRumors.com and projected to get a six-year deal for $150 million. He exceeded that projection.

While Nola’s ERA was 4.46 last season, teams are clearly digging deeper than ERA numbers here and liking what they see with this pitcher. Durability is a real Nola strength. In the last six full seasons – not counting the shortened 2020 season – he has averaged a robust 194 innings, three times topping 200.

With one of the lowest payrolls in Major League Baseball, the Orioles were still able to pull off a 101-win season that led them to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

There certainly seems to be room for that payroll to grow and get larger. How large no one knows and no one from the front office will tip their hand. Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias is the man that will need to manage that payroll with the knowledge that any big dollar mistakes could set back the team.

The margin for error is much less than for the big market, big spending teams.

No doubt some fans are skeptical that the O's could do some spending this winter and you won't get Elias to suggest that or promise that. But I still asked the question in our recent interview when I wondered what he could do to prove to fans that the club is willing to invest more dollars in the big league payroll?

“I think there is a point there I often neglect to mention – the ultimate goal here is wins and success and having a healthy organization. How much you are spending to do that – whether it is free agents or on infrastructure – it’s sort of secondary. To me, I care about that – I care about the wins and the organizational health, success and talent. But I think that if you’re a fan, you should see that we are on upward climb and an upward path and that has involved and will involve the major league payroll.

A team that won 101 games and posted the best record in the American League isn’t primed for a roster overhaul. Heavy tinkering, if such a thing exists, also seems unlikely based on results, returnees and talent funneling through the pipeline.

What are these Orioles going to do between now and Opening Day?

I’ve heard some people in the industry and some friends of mine insist that changes should be minimal or non-existent because, as the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. But the Orioles aren’t perfect. They didn’t get a third champagne and beer celebration.

The holes aren’t crater-size, but any chance to upgrade must be done.

Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier and James McCann didn't qualify as blockbuster transactions, but they were improvements over Jordan Lyles, Rougned Odor and Robinson Chirinos. That's the point.

Exactly one week ago, the Winter Meetings reached their busiest scheduled day with a Baseball Writers’ Association of America meeting, followed by Commissioner Rob Manfred’s media session, agent Scott Boras’ traditional lobby scrum, manager Brandon Hyde’s media gathering, executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias’ daily session in his suite, and the first draft lottery.

The Orioles signed outfielder Nomar Mazara and infielder Josh Lester to minor league contracts.

Seems like only yesterday.

Four moves followed, but all of them in the Rule 5 draft – reliever Andrew Politi the lone selection in the major league phase. Others are coming, but at a slow pace rather than a sudden burst.

Two more free-agent pitchers linked to the Orioles have tumbled off the board.

The baseball free agent market is underway. And the Orioles' Mike Elias told my colleague Roch Kubatko that the market could move swiftly this winter. Maybe some things will even heat up before the Winter Meetings early next month.

The Orioles are targeting pitching and hitting via both free agency and possibly trade routes also.

"I think this is going to be a very competitive market for players,” he said. “I think there’s a lot of teams out there that are looking to get better. People feel good about the health of the industry and I expect this will be a pretty active and maybe fast free agent market,” said Elias.

So, without any knowledge of how much money or far the Orioles are willing to go after free agent pitchers, we’ll take a look at a few of them over the next few weeks in this space. Today we start with three right-handers, who all pitched in New York in 2022.

* RHP Taijuan Walker: He is ranked as the No. 11 free agent via ESPN and projected to get four years at $60 million. MLBTradeRumors.com lists him at No. 16 and predicts a four-year deal for $52 million.

Baseball’s free agency period has begun. As of 5 p.m. yesterday, teams could pursue free agents that were not their own. The offers can now be made, the rumors will heat up and some signings should start to trickle in of players changing teams.

Will the Orioles be active? Quite possibly and according to ESPN, quite probably.

In Jeff Passan’s offseason preview story there was this excerpt:

Which teams are most likely to go really big this winter?

Certainly, this list could change, said Passan, depending on market dynamics and the whims of ownership, but the most active teams this winter, according to sources, are expected to be: