MLB free-agent pitchers are chasing the dollars and getting more than most projections

Baseball America recently wrote about the findings of Major League Baseball’s study on pitching injuries and what it meant for amateur youth pitchers.

The study found – to no real surprise – that youth pitchers are throwing too much, too hard, and too often. This is leading to long-term injuries. Again, no one should be surprised.

They are chasing the dollars of MLB and before that the scholarships from top Div. I schools that lead them to get drafted that lead them to pro ball and possibly one day to the big dollars of the majors.

How big?

Price tags are going up.

Cost of quality pitching continues to rise

Juan Soto stole the biggest headline at the now-completed Winter Meetings – and for $765 million, rightfully so – but the most significant broader storyline to develop out of Dallas might well have been the shape of the pitching market.

In short, it’s expensive. Really expensive.

While only a handful of top position players have signed so far this offseason, a good number of free agent starters have found new homes. And they’ve been paid handsomely for their services.

The real eye-opener so far was Max Fried, who parlayed the Yankees’ frustration at losing Soto to the Mets into a gargantuan, eight-year, $218 million contract. That shattered most predictions for the left-hander, who undoubtedly is one of the league’s better starters but has dealt with some injuries in recent years and isn’t a prototypical power pitcher.

Fried’s deal, which runs through his age-38 season, was the biggest one given to a pitcher so far this winter. But it’s not the only one that exceeded expectations.

A look at how the O's will try to get Adley Rutschman hitting again (plus other notes)

While the Orioles continue to work on their offseason and look to add new players to their roster, getting one already on that roster back to previous form is also on the agenda this winter.

Manager Brandon Hyde, in a phone interview Tuesday, said the club has reached out to catcher Adley Rutschman and the work to get his bat going again has begun.

Rutschman finished 12th in the AL MVP vote in 2022 and ninth in 2023. But in 2024, his OPS dropped from .809 the previous year to .709.

Last season, on June 27, Rutschman was hitting .300 with an .830 OPS. But in his last 71 games, he batted just .189 with four homers and an OPS of .559.

“We’ve been in regular contact with Adley,” Hyde said from the Winter Meetings in Dallas. “We've put some plans in place and collaborated on some things that we feel like, that he feels like, that he wanted to kind of get back to. That kind of went away the second half. We know what kind of player he is and is going to be. We are doing a lot of things with him to get him back offensively and defensively to be the player that he is.

Taking a much-too-early look at Orioles' 26-man roster

The work required to build the 26-man roster for Opening Day is a long way from completion. The surface hasn’t even been scratched.

At least one starter and reliever, a right-handed bat – likely for the outfield – and a backup catcher bring boxes that still need checking. The Orioles are on the clock but the ticking isn’t really that loud. Plenty of time remains to finish shopping before camp opens in mid-February. Plenty of names remain on the board who could fill specific needs of the club, and there are also trade talks that might produce upgrades.

This is the point in the offseason when I’m reminded of the gaps in the roster. A national publication is asking for a projected lineup, rotation, bullpen and bench. The list will be outdated in a few months, but that isn’t my problem.

The issue is coming up with 26 names.

Starting with the rotation, an Opening Day in December could line up Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers and Cade Povich, with the first two vying for the March 27 game in Toronto. Albert Suárez is a possibility, of course.

Baseball's Hot Stove may be about to really get going

It has been a somewhat slow Hot Stove season thus far in terms of signings. But the stove may be really about to get hot.

The biggest free agent prize – outfielder Juan Soto – may be close to signing and it could happen during the Winter Meetings that begin on Monday. He has been the most talked about player this offseason and that will hold up until he signs.

Will the dam burst after that?

This is what many in the industry seem to believe. Once Soto is off the market, teams may pivot to outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández and really kick off the pursuit of position players. Big dollar teams that miss out on Soto, could move back to the high-end starting pitcher market chasing the likes of Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

Where does this leave the Orioles?

Could Nats go big in search for rotation help?

If there’s only one player the Nationals are likely to pursue this winter, it’s an established slugger, preferably one who can play first base.

If there’s a No. 2 item on general manager Mike Rizzo’s wish list, it’s probably an experienced starting pitcher, one who could help lead an otherwise young rotation to better days.

This isn’t earth-shattering news. The next time Rizzo says he’s not looking for starting pitching will be the first time. It’s always a priority.

But the evidence suggests it’s been more of a priority certain years compared to others. Yeah, the Nationals pursued starters last winter. The only one they landed was Zach Davies, who got a minor league contract and then lost a spring training battle for the No. 5 spot in the rotation to Trevor Williams and was cut loose before camp ended.

At the other end of the spectrum, of course, were the major signings of Max Scherzer in 2015 and Patrick Corbin in 2019 to nine-figure deals.

Potential O's free agent target: Lefty pitcher Max Fried

If the Orioles lose right-hander Corbin Burnes via free agency, they could turn to free agency to find his replacement, or at least find someone that is in his class of pitchers.

They are not in abundance but there are a few available in this free agent class. A list that includes lefty Max Fried, who will be 31 next Opening Day.

A former first-round MLB Draft pick, Fried has never pitched for anyone save Atlanta. But if they didn’t sign him to an extension by now, there is an assumption that he will be pitching elsewhere in 2025.

MLBTradeRumors.com listed numerous clubs that could make a play for Fried, including the Orioles. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman said he will get looks from American League East clubs including the Orioles, Toronto and Boston, and that the Yankees have already “checked in” on him. So where are the Rays?

MLB Trade Rumors also listed the Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Padres (who originally drafted him), Cubs, Tigers, Angels and Dodgers as possible destinations for Fried. And the outlet noted that six-year deals for pitchers beginning at age 31 or later are rare, with only five in the past decade (Zach Greinke, Aaron Nola, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Jon Lester).

More from Irvin's career night in Atlanta

ATLANTA – The final score wasn’t what they wanted, but the Nationals loved what they saw from Jake Irvin in last night’s 2-0 loss to the Braves.

The 27-year-old did his part by keeping the Nats in the game with six shutout innings and a career-high 10 strikeouts. A dominant performance against one of the more potent offenses in the major leagues, even without the reigning National League MVP, Ronald Acuña Jr.

Irvin’s 10 strikeouts came on a steady mix of four-seam fastballs and curveballs. Two of those punchouts stood out.

In the fifth inning, after erasing a leadoff walk with a double play, Irvin got ahead of No. 7 hitter Jarred Kelenic 0-2. But his next three pitches – all curveballs – were sprayed outside of the strike zone to run the count full. After a fastball was fouled off, Irvin finally got Kelenic to whiff at a perfectly placed curveball in the bottom of the zone.

A big out for Irvin, who actually yelled into his glove in frustration before walking back to the visitor’s dugout.

Some Orioles draft eve speculation

Some Orioles draft eve speculation
With less than 24 hours to go now until the first round of the First-Year Player Draft, the Orioles appear to be centering on a list of four players to choose from with their No. 4 overall selection pending, of course, what the three teams that select ahead of them do with their picks. In the latest mock draft published on its Web site Friday, Baseball America projected that Houston, picking first, would take Stanford pitcher Mark Appel. Minnesota, at two, would take high school outfielder...