SARASOTA, Fla. – With the Orioles committed to keeping 13 pitchers and 13 position players, they’re operating under an assumption that they head north with a set five-man rotation and eight relievers. Roster mocks divide the bullpen into the “locks” and “others” categories, as the club would operate under normal circumstances.,

However, there’s nothing normal about having five off-days before May, including March 29 after the opener against the Angels at Camden Yards.

The schedule could lead the Orioles to begin the season with four starters and keep a ninth reliever who operates as a long man. They’re discussing various scenarios and the factors that could be influencers, such as the number of pitchers who are out of minor league options.

At the risk of being charged with murder by monotony, I’ll share again that I think Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, Cionel Pérez, Mike Baumann and Dillon Tate are the safest bets to go north, and that Keegan Akin has thrust himself onto the frontrunner list.

The eighth spot could come down to Jacob Webb, Bryan Baker, Julio Teheran, Albert Suárez or Andrew Suárez. My mind narrows it to Webb, Baker and Teheran, with Albert Suárez, who starts tonight against the Red Sox in Fort Myers, hopping into Triple-A Norfolk’s rotation. Andrew Suárez would be a fourth left-hander, which seems extreme in an eight-man ‘pen.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Zach Davies has been doing this long enough to have real perspective. The 31-year-old right-hander is one of the most introspective players in Nationals camp this spring, understanding that the big picture matters but so does his most recent performance.

And his most recent performance was hard to ignore. For all the wrong reasons.

In his last scheduled start of the spring, Davies was roughed up by the Cardinals during a 13-4 trouncing, unable to get himself out of a seven-run top of the fourth that required 40 pitches on his part.

If this happened any of the previous springs, when Davies was assured a spot in his team’s Opening Day rotation, it wouldn’t have carried much weight. But in this spring, with Davies attempting to make the club off a minor league contract, it stood out like a sore thumb.

“I was extremely pleased with everything, except for the last inning that I pitched,” he said. “It’s unfortunate being in this position. Your last start of spring you don’t really have any more chances to show them what you have. All I can do is be prepared for whatever’s next.”

SARASOTA, Fla. – The Orioles rotation is taking its final spring turn before Opening Day.

Dean Kremer won’t get the ball again until he’s in Baltimore. He accumulated 3 2/3 innings tonight and allowed one run and three hits with two walks and five strikeouts.

Kremer was stretched out to 75 pitches, 46 for strikes.

Albert Suárez starts Thursday night against the Red Sox in Fort Myers, and Corbin Burnes starts Friday night against the Pirates in Sarasota. Chayce McDermott leaves minor league camp to start Saturday afternoon’s split-squad game against the Rays in Port Charlotte, and Tyler Wells starts Saturday night against the Blue Jays in Sarasota.

The exhibition finale is Sunday, with the Orioles playing the Twins in Fort Myers, and manager Brandon Hyde hasn’t revealed his starter. Meanwhile, Grayson Rodriguez hasn’t faced Grapefruit League hitters since Thursday in Bradenton, which indicates that he’s pitched on the back fields.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – The Nationals are down to their final 96 hours in Florida, which would typically be around the time club officials are paring down the roster and making their final choices for the Opening Day 26-man squad. As they prepare to take the field tonight against the Cardinals, though, they still officially have 45 players in big league camp (39 of them healthy).

And it doesn’t sound like the paring down is coming yet.

“We still haven’t made any final roster decisions, really at anything, except the obvious,” manager Davey Martinez said. “I can tell you CJ’s going to play shortstop.”

So there’s your breaking news for now: CJ Abrams will be the starting shortstop. Try not to express too much shock at that surprise revelation.

“The next few days, we’ve got a lot of decisions to make,” Martinez continued. “These guys have all done really well. They’re making things hard. For me, it’s a good problem to have until the day comes when it’s not so good.”

SARASOTA, Fla. – The Orioles optioned left-handed reliever Nick Vespi to minor league camp this afternoon. The major league camp roster is down to 45 players.

Vespi is the second southpaw pitcher in two days to be sent down, following Bruce Zimmermann yesterday morning.

Vespi had a solid showing until allowing three runs and three hits yesterday in 1 1/3 innings in Dundedin. The Blue Jays’ Daulton Varsho hit a two-run homer.

The final spring total for Vespi is five runs and seven hits in 8 1/3 innings. He walked one batter and struck out 12, and opponents batted .219.

“We obviously have a lot more (cuts) to go,” said manager Brandon Hyde.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – No spring training game truly counts, but let’s acknowledge that tonight’s game against the Cardinals means a little bit more than nothing. For one thing, a Nationals victory would clinch a winning record in the Grapefruit League this spring!

OK, that’s not actually the reason it means something. The significance of tonight’s game involves the Nats’ starter, Zach Davies, who is running out of time to make his case for a spot in the Opening Day rotation. The veteran right-hander is making his fourth start, and the three previous ones haven’t been overwhelmingly good or bad. He enters with a 4.35 ERA and 13 baserunners allowed in 8 1/3 innings.

If Davies is going to bump Trevor Williams to the bullpen, he’s going to need to show something at some point. So tonight’s game offers an opportunity for him. Now we’ll see if he can seize that opportunity.

Speaking of opportunities … Trey Lipscomb gets another chance to start a game, this time at second base. Though none of the team’s top prospects has been expected to make the club, if there’s one who maybe could force his way in, it might be Lipscomb, who has played well and really pushed Luis García Jr. Here’s another chance for him tonight to make his case.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Where: CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach
Gametime: 6:05 p.m.
TV: None
Radio: MLB.com (Cardinals feed)
Weather: Chance of storms, 85 degrees, wind 14 mph out to right field

When it comes to the Orioles, we have seen it happen in recent years, we have seen it happen last year and we have a historical perspective of it as well.

It is that a young player, even those ranked as No. 1 prospects in the sport, can and often do struggle at the outset of their major league careers.

Two words come to mind - patience and expectations. Patience to give the young player time to settle in and feel comfortable at the big league level and to start to put up numbers. And expectations which must be managed early on for that player. It’s OK to have high expectations, we should for top prospects, but it is also ok to give them time to realize the expectations. Often a lot of time.

Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are now emerging stars on the Orioles and already considered among the top players in the game. They have at least a couple of things in common in that both shot up to No. 1 in prospect rankings and both had some early career struggles.

Hard to believe it now, but Rutschman, who had his MLB debut on May 21, 2022, was 13-for-74 after his first 20 games with 18 strikeouts and no RBIs. That is zero RBIs. He was batting .176/.256/.257/.513 at that point. Over 113 games on the 2022 season he would hit .254/.362/.445/.806 and finished second for the Rookie of the Year award and 12^th in the MVP voting.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – All of the Nationals’ top prospects still in big league camp will be coming north with the team and will be at Nationals Park for Tuesday’s exhibition finale. Playing for the team of prospects set to face the Opening Day major league roster that afternoon.

The organization announced Tuesday that top prospects James Wood, Dylan Crews, Brady House, Trey Lipscomb and Robert Hassell III will be among the players participating in the first “On Deck: Nationals Futures Game.” The insinuation: None of those players is going to make the Opening Day roster, though all technically are still in the running heading into the final five days of spring training.

The Nationals did not reveal the full Prospects roster, but in addition to the above five players, they did say Darren Baker, Drew Millas, Jackson Rutledge, DJ Herz and Amos Willingham will be on the team. More names for the scheduled 12:05 p.m. game will be announced later.

The Nats have hosted an exhibition game on South Capitol Street nearly every season since the ballpark opened in 2008, but that game traditionally has been played against another major league club scheduled to open its regular season on the East Coast (often the Yankees or Red Sox). This year for the first time they will face top minor leaguers from the organization, giving many of them a chance to play in a big league stadium for the first time and fans a chance to see these young players in person for the first time.

A good number of those prospects, of course, have received plenty of playing time in major league camp this spring. And Wood, Crews, House, Lipscomb, Hassell and Millas all currently remain in camp, with 13 healthy players still needing to be cut to get the roster down to 26 in time for the March 28 season opener at Cincinnati.

SARASOTA, Fla. – The second day after an appearance is usually when the soreness creeps in with reliever Bryan Baker. Nothing that he can’t manage, of course. It comes with the chosen profession, but he feels it. And this is why he’s looking forward to pitching on back-to-back days as the final ramp up for Opening Day.

Baker doesn’t know whether he’ll make the roster, but at least he’ll be ready.

The outings haven’t all been clean, but Baker’s logged six innings without surrendering an earned run. He’s allowed only two hits and struck out eight batters, but also walked four and hit one. Opponents are batting .095.

Baker has one minor league option left and the Orioles could decide to use it. Six of the eight spots appear secure with Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano, Cionel Pérez, Danny Coulombe, Mike Baumann and Dillon Tate. Keegan Akin is looking more like a lock with his 7 1/3 scoreless innings, one hit allowed and 10 strikeouts.

The Orioles could break with nine relievers and only four starters because of the five off-days before the beginning of May. Whatever the configuration, Baker is battling to avoid an option to Triple-A Norfolk and feeling that he’s done everything he could “for the most part.”

DUNEDIN, Fla. – Jackson Holliday keeps pushing to make the Orioles’ Opening Day roster.

Two more hits today, including his second home run, and a walk were the latest arguments for it. He can’t be ignored. He won’t let up.

Blue Jays veteran Chad Green served up the homer with two outs in the fifth inning, with Holliday driving a curveball to the bar area beyond the right-center field fence. The average increased to .326 with a .998 OPS.

There must be something about TD Ballpark. Holliday hit a grand slam here in a March 10 split-squad game.

“I do like hitting here,” he said. “Usually the wind blows out, so it’s pretty favorable.”

DUNEDIN, Fla. – Bruce Zimmermann will head to minor league spring training and jump into Triple-A Norfolk’s rotation.

The Orioles optioned Zimmermann this morning after he allowed three earned runs and 12 hits in 7 2/3 innings. His 3.52 ERA was paired with a 1.957 WHIP.

“We need rotation depth and so he’s going to be in the Norfolk rotation to start the year,” said manager Brandon Hyde. “It’s going to take more than five guys. He threw the ball well this spring, but we’re going to start the year with him in Triple-A and continue to build him up as a starter.”

Prospects Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott and Justin Armbruester are expected to join Zimmermann. Albert Suárez could occupy another spot if he doesn’t break camp with the Orioles.

Seth Johnson probably will be assigned to Double-A Bowie. He’s made only one career appearance above High-A.

DUNEDIN, Fla. – The Orioles optioned left-hander Bruce Zimmermann to minor league camp this morning, reducing their major league camp roster to 46 players.

The Baltimore native was competing for a spot in the rotation or the bullpen in long relief.

Zimmermann appeared in three games and allowed three earned runs (five total) and 12 hits in 7 2/3 innings. He walked three batters and struck out seven.

Ryan Mountcastle remains out of the lineup this afternoon against the Blue Jays. He hasn’t played since March 12 due to neck stiffness but said this morning that he’s taking live batting practice in Sarasota and will play Wednesday night against the Phillies in Sarasota.

Austin Hays has been ill but said this morning that he’s feeling better. He also could be in Wednesday’s lineup.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – The Nationals are off today. And when I say off, I mean OFF. There will be no game played. There will be no workouts, individual or group. There will be no minor league camp for the day. If you're in town and try to come to the complex, you won't be able to get in, because nobody will be here.

That doesn't mean it's a full day off for your trusty beat reporter, though. We never rest around here, so let's spend a little time this morning getting reacquainted with each other.

It's been a fun spring, with a lot of youthful exuberance in this camp. But we're now down to the final week, and so it's crunch time for anyone on the bubble trying to make the Opening Day roster.

You've surely got questions. And hopefully I've got satisfactory answers. As always, leave your inquiries in the comments section below, then check back throughout the morning for my responses. (Just don't look for anything this afternoon. I am actually taking the rest of the day off!)

SARASOTA, Fla. – A second off-day of the spring provided rest and recreation to a group of players who would rather hit a golf ball than the wall.

What it couldn’t accomplish is the task of figuring out how to pare the camp roster to 26 players. That’s a higher pay grade.

Competition is great. It’s also a pain in the rear because players who should be introduced to a packed house on March 28 will be working out in Sarasota and waiting for the minor league season to begin. Seems unfair but that’s business, the kind from an organization that’s operating at a much higher talent level than in the past.

The rotation is at least close to set with Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin, whatever order beyond the ace. Let’s assume that Rodriguez and Kremer are two and three.

But what the heck is going on with the position players?

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Josiah Gray has danced this dance before. He did it on a regular basis last season, putting himself into jams and then getting himself out of them.

That success has given the Nationals right-hander the confidence to deal with such precarious situations. It has also made him realize he’d be better served not getting into those situations quite so often.

“I think every outing when I’m toeing that line … it’s kind of like: Here we go again,” he said. “I shouldn’t be putting myself in these positions.”

Gray kept doing it tonight during the Nationals’ 10-1 exhibition victory over the Astros. He allowed 10 of the 24 batters he faced to reach, seven via walk. And somehow he departed after five innings with only one run on the board.

“Not a pretty outing at all,” he said. “Kind of just laboring through things. Some of the walks, I felt like I was spraying the ball around. Some of the other walks, I felt like I was just missing them. I was lucky to only give up one today, but things could get a little different with that many runners on.”

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – Kyle Finnegan was back on a mound today, albeit a bullpen mound outside CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches as opposed to one inside the stadium.

Finnegan, who hasn’t pitched in a game in six days due to a back tightness, took his first step toward a return this afternoon when he threw a bullpen session. Barring any setbacks, the Nationals closer will appear in Wednesday night’s Grapefruit League game.

“It was something I wanted to keep going through, keep pitching,” said Finnegan, whose back tightened up on him after a weight room workout. “I don’t like to get off-schedule. But we thought it would be a better idea to let it heal completely, feel 100 percent. … I feel 100 percent right now. Just took a few days to let it calm down.”

A creature of routine, Finnegan normally would’ve made several game appearances over the last week. As he learned, though, a little break at this point of spring training isn’t the worst thing.

“I’ve been doing a lot of hot tub, which I’ve enjoyed,” he said. “It’s been pretty nice. They told me don’t do much of anything for a few days.”

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – It’s a sweltering March afternoon here in South Florida, summer-type weather with popup thunderstorms all over the place. Hopefully that doesn’t impact tonight’s game, but the Nationals and Astros surely will be keeping an eye on the radar before and after they take the field.

Assuming no delays or poor conditions, Josiah Gray makes the start, his second-to-last tune-up before he takes the mound for real on Opening Day in Cincinnati. Gray enters with a 7.36 ERA this spring, but that’s more than a bit misleading. He was excellent in his first two starts, allowing one run and six baserunners in five innings. Then he was roughed up last time out, allowing five runs and nine baserunners in only 2 1/3 innings. That was 10 days ago, though, because Gray pitched on a back field in a minor league game last week. Either way, it’s important for him to build up some innings tonight and hopefully have some success against some good Houston hitters.

Most of the regulars are in the Nationals lineup, aside from Luis García Jr. and Nick Senzel. So it’ll be Ildemaro Vargas at second base and Trey Lipscomb at third base, all of them facing Cristian Javier.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. HOUSTON ASTROS
Where: CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach
Gametime: 6:05 p.m.
TV: MLB.tv (Astros feed)
Radio: 980 AM, MLB.com
Weather: Chance of storms, 85 degrees, wind 14 mph out to right field

NATIONALS
SS CJ Abrams
RF Lane Thomas
LF Eddie Rosario
1B Joey Meneses
DH Joey Gallo
C Keibert Ruiz
CF Victor Robles
2B Ildemaro Vargas
3B Trey Lipscomb

For a player who had a year where he dealt with multiple groin injuries and finished the year struggling so badly, O’s center fielder Cedric Mullins still had his moments in the 2023 season.

He hit for the cycle May 12, had a five-hit game and also hit two grand slams. On Sept. 18 at Houston, he hit a 425-foot, go-ahead three-run homer in the ninth inning. And he became the first player to both rob and hit a home run in the ninth inning or later of the same game over the last 10 seasons on Aug. 13 at Seattle. That was according to ESPN Stats & Info and marked his first career go-ahead homer in extra innings.

He sure had some big moments and games but still hit for him what was a less than expected .233/.305/.416/.721 for an OPS+ of 101.

He’s now 30 and two years removed from the first 30-30 season (homers and steals) in O’s history in 2021. He produced an .878 OPS then and was ninth in the MVP voting.

But his last two years were not close to that, and he was 0-for-12 in the American League Division Series last October and just 2-for-45 his last 14 games, counting the postseason.

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – They waited a bit longer than most teams to do it, but the Nationals did finally start making some cuts over the last week.

None of the names to date came as much of a surprise. These were mostly younger prospects who need to start getting more playing time in minor league camp or non-roster invitees who stood little chance of making the Opening Day roster in the first place.

The next round of cuts, which will likely come in a few more days, may include some more prominent names. We’re getting down to crunch time for Mike Rizzo, Davey Martinez and Co, who admittedly have some tough decisions to make as they pare the list down to 26 for the season opener.

Who’s still here? Officially, there are 45 remaining players in big league camp, but that’s a bit misleading. Six players are all but guaranteed to open the season on the injured list with ailments both major (Mason Thompson, Cade Cavalli, Stone Garrett, Stephen Strasburg) and minor (Jose A. Ferrer, Robert Hassell III).

So that leaves 39 healthy players competing for those final 26 jobs. Here’s a look at who’s left by position and what decisions still must be made. (Players with an asterisk after their names are on minor league contracts and would need to be added to the 40-man roster) …

SARASOTA, Fla. – Two off-days in one spring training? This must be how the other half lives.

I’d ask why the Orioles usually don’t get multiple breaks in their schedule, but I’m here to supply answers. That’s supposed to be my contribution to the mailbag.

You remember the mailbag, of course. Sequel after sequel to the beloved 2008 original. Informative, mildly entertaining, never edited except for your crude profanities.

I’m not worried about length. It’s the freakin’ internet.

Your style is fine with me, though I’d lengthen those shorts.