Key offseason topic still front and center: When to trade the prospects?

If on Opening Day the Orioles infield was Ryan Mountcastle, Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg, that would be formidable. Four players that have been top 100 prospects at one time and two that made it to No. 1.

But that would leave no room for others to include vets Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urías and Ryan O’Hearn who are on the 40-man infield and yes of course someone could DH. But it would also leave no room for Joey Ortiz in that infield, or Coby Mayo, or Connor Norby.

The O's organization is deep and filled with prospects at the higher levels after they produced eight Baseball America top 100 players in January of 2023 and six this year.

So yes, one way to alleviate a so-called logjam of talent is to trade from a surplus. This topic dogs the Orioles, who should be able to take a bow or two for the great farm system they have compiled. But at the same time, they get constant questions about how they are going to deploy all that talent.

I recently talked to Baseball America editor-in-chief JJ Cooper on this most interesting challenge for the club.

After three straight years with the Baseball America No. 1 player, could O's extend streak?

When I interviewed Baseball America’s JJ Cooper this week to talk about the Orioles making history in the BA top 100, becoming the first team to have three No. 1 players in three straight years, he had an interesting comment.

“It’s hard to imagine we are going to see this again anytime soon,” he said.

To that point, many in Birdland may have thought “unless the O’s Samuel Basallo (No. 10 right now) makes it four in a row for the Orioles this time next year.”

And that was my follow up to Cooper in that interview. Well, what about a Baltimore four-peat this time with Basallo in 2025?

“It is absolutely a possibility,” said Cooper noting that several players ranked ahead of Basallo currently in their new top 10 are likely to graduate from list eligibility during the new season and he could move up several spots based on that alone. 

An Oriole three-peat: Three years, three different No. 1 ranked prospects

It was not unexpected as O’s prospect Jackson Holliday ended last season as the sport’s No. 1 ranked player. But when Baseball America released a new top 100 list on Wednesday, the Orioles officially became the first team in the 35-year history of their list to have the No. 1 player for three straight seasons.

Three years, three different No. 1 players.

Catcher Adley Rutschman was No. 1 in the initial list release of 2022, infielder Gunnar Henderson was No. 1 in 2023 and now Holliday in 2024.

In 2022, Rutschman went on to post an OPS of .806 for the Orioles and he finished second for AL Rookie of the Year and was 12th in the AL MVP voting. Last year, Henderson posted an OPS .814, won the AL Rookie of the Year Award and finished eighth in the MVP voting.

With the poll release last year, the Orioles then become the first team to ever have two players from the same draft class be No. 1 in consecutive years, with Rutschman and Henderson drafted in 2019. The only team previously with two straight years with two different players getting to No. 1 before 2023 was St. Louis, with J.D. Drew in 1999 and Rick Ankiel topping the ratings in 2000.

No. 1 on Baseball America's prospect list now, does Gunnar Henderson stay there?

The Orioles' No. 1-ranked farm system currently features six players ranked in the Baseball America top 100 prospects list. That is a strong number. And if the O’s still have those six – and they likely should – when the publication releases a new top 100 list in January heading into 2023, that would be an Orioles first.

Since 1990, when Baseball America began releasing a top 100 list each January, the O’s have had as many as five players ranked, but never six.

Currently, they have the No. 1-rated player in Gunnar Henderson, in addition to Grayson Rodriguez (No. 4), Jackson Holliday (No. 38), DL Hall (No. 55), Colton Cowser (No. 88) and Jordan Westburg (No. 89).

Among the 33 lists Baseball America has released, only three times have the O’s had five rated, and it has happened each of the last two years and also in 2008.

In 2008, it was Matt Wieters (12), Chris Tillman (67), Radhames Liz (69), Troy Patton (78) and Nolan Reimold (91).

Baseball America's JJ Cooper on the Orioles' Rule 5 draft selection

A streak stayed alive recently. The Orioles have made a selection in every Rule 5 draft that was held since 2006. This time they selected right-handed reliever Andrew Politi from the Boston Red Sox. 

Now Politi, coming off a good 2022 season when he spent time at both Double-A and Triple-A, will try to first make the O’s Opening Day roster and then stick with the club all season next year, per the Rule 5 rules. A 15th-round draft pick out of Seton Hall in 2018, Politi pitched in 50 games last year, going 4-1 with a 2.34 ERA.

Over 69 1/3 innings he allowed 45 hits and just six homers, recording 22 walks to 83 strikeouts. He posted a 2.9 walk rate and 10.8 strikeout rate with a .186 batting average against and 0.97 WHIP. Some strong stats that included a 28.3 strikeout percentage in his time at Triple-A.

I recently talked with Baseball America’s editor-in-chief, JJ Cooper about this O's addition. Few know the Rule 5 draft or cover it better than Cooper. He sees this pick as a different type of Rule 5 selection for the O's. Not a pitcher that a losing team might select for future help but a major league-ready pickup that a team chasing the playoffs might take a look at.

“The Orioles were looking for a player that could fit into their 2023 bullpen, and if I were looking for a player in this year’s Rule 5 draft, Politi is one of the ones that most stands out for that," said Cooper. "He had success last year. He had upper-level success, he spent most of the year at Triple-A. It’s not a high-upside play. He’s got solid stuff. A mid-90’s fastball that plays well with a hard slider.

Some of the newly acquired pitchers get off to good starts for O's farm

Most of the six new pitchers the Orioles acquired in the recent trades of Trey Mancini to Houston and Jorge López to Minnesota have gotten off to good starts for their new organization.

The Orioles added three top 30 prospects.

For Mancini they got right-hander Seth Johnson from Tampa Bay. He underwent Tommy John surgery on Aug. 3, so the Orioles won’t see him for a while, but MLBPipeline.com ranks him as the club's No. 8 prospect. Baseball America has him at No. 10. After Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall, Johnson is now the Orioles' third highest-rated pitcher.

The O’s also added 23-year-old right-hander Chayce McDermott from Houston in that deal. He now ranks as Baltimore’s No. 12 prospect, according to MLBPipeline.com, and No. 17 in Baseball America's estimation. In two games with the Orioles' high Single-A Aberdeen team, he has allowed two runs and three hits in five innings, going 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA with one walk to 10 strikeouts.

In the deal with Minnesota, the O’s added lefty Cade Povich, also pitching at Aberdeen. In his first start for his new organization, he threw six scoreless innings on one hit last Saturday. MLBPipeline.com ranks Povich as the O’s No. 26 prospect, while Baseball America puts him at No. 29.

He's No. 1: Baseball America's JJ Cooper on Gunnar Henderson

Baseball America has been putting out its top 100 prospects list since 1990, and only once previously has an organization had two different players ranked No. 1 in back-to-back years in their January winter rankings. Now the Orioles have a chance to match that.

Last January, Adley Rutschman was No. 1 and this week infielder Gunnar Henderson moved to No. 1 in the latest Baseball America top 100 update. They are now updating their January release once a month in season. If Henderson stays No. 1 in the January rating this coming winter, the Orioles would match the Cardinals, who had J.D. Drew No. 1 in 1999 and Rick Ankiel No. 1 in 2000.

By the way, Rutschman and Henderson were Mike Elias’ first two draft picks after taking over as Orioles executive vice president and general manager.

Henderson has had a remarkable year on the Baltimore farm starting at Double-A Bowie and moving to Triple-A Norfolk in early June. He has hit for the cycle this year and played in the All-Star Futures Game. He is just 21 years old.

When Rutschman reached 130 big league at-bats, he “graduated” from the top 100 list and thus was removed. For a time, Tigers outfielder Riley Greene moved to No. 1, and then in late July, Blue Jays catcher Gabriel Moreno was No. 1. But now Henderson has passed him for the top spot, as Moreno dropped to third with outfielder Jackson Chourio of the Brewers second.

A look at Baseball America's surprise mock draft O's selection

A look at Baseball America's surprise mock draft O's selection
When Baseball America released its latest mock draft yesterday, it had a real surprise with the Orioles and the No. 2 pick. It was not Vanderbilt's Austin Martin or Asa Lacy of Texas A&M. This mock had the Orioles taking high school outfielder Zac Veen from Orange, Fla. This would be part of a one-two approach in which the O's could sign Veen, get a top player and save some slot space to go well over slot with their No. 30 pick and get two top-rated talents. It's a strategy that has...

Why did Ryan Mountcastle miss the Baseball America top 100?

Why did Ryan Mountcastle miss the Baseball America top 100?
When Baseball America released its latest top 100 prospects list on Wednesday, the Orioles had three players who made it and one that just missed. Catcher Adley Rutschman was No. 5, right-handed pitcher Grayson Rodriguez No. 35 and left-hander DL Hall No. 47. Those are the club's last three top draft picks, with Hall taken 21st overall in 2017, Rodriguez 11th in 2018 and Rutschman was the overall No. 1 pick last June. When the 2019 season ended, Baseball America had tweaked its list a bit from...

A look at the Rule 5 draft with Baseball America's J.J. Cooper

A look at the Rule 5 draft with Baseball America's J.J. Cooper
The latest edition of the Rule 5 draft is set for Thursday at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. The last Rule 5 draft where the Orioles did not make a selection was in 2005. Yep, it's been that long, and the Orioles are certainly expected to make a selection again this year when they pick second behind Detroit. The order of the draft is the same as for the First-Year Player Draft set for June. Picking first last December in the Rule 5, the Orioles took infielder Richie Martin from Oakland. He...

Baseball America's J.J. Cooper on O's top 10 farm ranking

Baseball America's J.J. Cooper on O's top 10 farm ranking
It was good news for a rebuilding Orioles organization last month when Baltimore was ranked No. 8 in Baseball America's midseason Major League Baseball organizational rankings, which came out last month. This marks the first time that the Orioles have ranked in the publication's Top 10 since entering the 2010 season, when they also ranked No. 8. The O's also ranked No. 8 when entering the 1994 and 1989 seasons. Baseball America began publishing organization talent rankings in 1983. At the...

Some of the best quotes and takes from Las Vegas

Some of the best quotes and takes from Las Vegas
We covered a lot of topics and got the opinions and thoughts of a few national reporters and analysts over four days of the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas. Today, we'll take a look back at some of the most interesting and pertinent quotes of the week. ESPN's Keith Law provided a take on new GM Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal: "I think this is exactly what they needed. The fact that these guys have worked together for a while now and had so much success in Houston points to this being a great hire. I...

Baseball America's J.J. Cooper weighs in on the No. 1 draft pick

Baseball America's J.J. Cooper weighs in on the No. 1 draft pick
LAS VEGAS - The last catcher drafted with the No. 1 overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft was Joe Mauer, taken by the Minnesota Twins in 2001. There could be another catcher taken 1/1 in June and the Orioles hold that pick. Earlier, it seemed that many analysts favored Texas high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. for that No. 1 pick. Now the sentiment seems to have strongly moved toward Oregon State's switch-hitting catcher, Adley Rutschman. And top draft analysts are reaching a consensus...

Will the O's look toward the Astros in the Rule 5 draft?

Will the O's look toward the Astros in the Rule 5 draft?
LAS VEGAS - The Orioles have the No. 1 pick in the Rule 5 draft, which is the last event of the Winter Meetings. It takes place 9 a.m. Pacific time on Thursday at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino. Baseball America executive editor J.J. Cooper is as knowledgeable of that draft as anyone and has written on it and studied it for years. Here is his latest story previewing this year's draft. The Houston connection with the Orioles' Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal could come into play on...

Rankings and even more rankings talk

Rankings and even more rankings talk
Yesterday was a big day in prospect land, as Baseball America released its top 100 prospects list and ESPN's Keith Law released his second 50 (subscription required). His top 50 will be released today. For the first time since 2014, the Orioles have three on the Baseball America top 100. Austin Hays was ranked No. 21, with Chance Sisco at No. 68 and Ryan Mountcastle at No. 71. The last three years, the Orioles had three combined, with two in 2015, none in 2016 and one last year with Sisco at...

A quick look at the Rule 5 draft with Baseball America's J.J. Cooper

A quick look at the Rule 5 draft with Baseball America's J.J. Cooper
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. - The Rule 5 draft is the final event of the Winter Meetings and it happens at 9 a.m. tomorrow morning. The Orioles have made at least one Rule 5 selection every year since 2006. Even though they are likely to carry outfielder Anthony Santander on their roster to start the 2018 season, no one would be surprised by the Orioles selecting another player tomorrow. Santander still has to spend 44 days on the active major league roster to fulfill his Rule 5 obligation before he...

J.J. Cooper says O's farm has "taken a big step forward"

J.J. Cooper says O's farm has "taken a big step forward"
The Orioles' minor leagues had a good year in 2017. That is the opinion of several national analysts I have spoken to in the last two weeks. Today, here is the second part of a series of interviews with national analysts on the O's farm. For the Orioles, 2017 was a year where outfielder Austin Hays moved from Single-A Frederick to Double-A Bowie and then to the majors. He was a finalist for Baseball America's Player of the Year Award. The Orioles had four players ranked among the top 20...